研究者詳細 - 山本　俊行

論文 - 山本　俊行

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Accessibility and Auto Use in a Metropolis 査読有り

Kitamura, R., T. Golob, T. Yamamoto and G. Wu

Preprint CD-ROM of the 79th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board 2000年

Stochastic Frontier Models of Prism Vertices 査読有り

Kitamura, R., T. Yamamoto, K. Kishizawa and R. M. Pendyala

Preprint CD-ROM of the 79th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board 2000年

途上国における世帯の自動車保有予定と住宅購入予定の相互関係に関する分析

呉戈，山本俊行，北村隆一

土木計画学研究・講演集 23 巻頁： 451-454 2000年

MCMC法を用いた巨大選択肢集合下での目的地選択行動の再現

菊地輝，山本俊行，芦川圭，北村隆一

土木計画学研究・講演集 23 巻頁： 267-270 2000年

都市内高速道路の料金改定による行動変化の主観的予測と実際の変化と事後認知の分析

西中卓也，山本俊行，北村隆一

土木計画学研究・講演集 23 巻頁： 695-698 2000年

マルコフ連鎖モンテカルロ法による活動パターン生成手法に関する研究

山本俊行，岸澤桂子，北村隆一

土木学会第55回年次学術講演会講演概要集第４部頁： 658-659 2000年

経路選択行動の習慣化と旅行時間の思いこみ認知についての実験研究

山田憲嗣，中山晶一朗，藤井聡，山本俊行，北村隆一

平成12年度土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会講演概要頁： IV-31 2000年

An Analysis of Household Vehicle Holding Durations Considering Intended Holding Durations 査読有り

Toshiyuki Yamamoto and Ryuichi Kitamura

Transportation Research 34A 巻 ( 5 ) 頁： 339-351 2000年

担当区分：筆頭著者記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

Household vehicle holding durations are examined in this study using panel data. Panel data enable the observation of changes in household vehicle holdings in discrete time periods. If the data set contains retrospective recall data which offer information on the types and the occurrence time points of the transactions since the last survey, direct observation of the transaction process along a continuous time axis is possible. Furthermore, if the data contain information on intentions for future transactions and actual outcomes of the intentions in later waves, the relationship between intended transactions and actual transactions can be observed. In this study, we develop models of actual vehicle holding durations and models of intended vehicle holding durations for the same set of vehicles. Comparing these two sets of models, the effects on household vehicle holding durations of changes in the household's plans for vehicle holding and unexpected events can be inferred. To represent unaccounted associations between intended vehicle holding durations and actual vehicle holding durations, vehicle specific error components are introduced into the duration models. A non-parametric approach is adopted in model estimation using mass points, which requires no assumption on the distribution of the error components.

DOI： 10.1016/S0965-8564(99)00033-6

Stochastic Frontier Models of Prism Vertices 査読有り

Ryuichi Kitamura, Toshiyuki Yamamoto, Keiko Kishizawa and Ram M. Pendyala

Transportation Research Record ( 1718 ) 頁： 18-26 2000年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

A methodology to estimate the location and size of space-time prisms that govern individuals' activity and travel is presented in this study. Because the vertices of a prism are unobservable, stochastic frontier models are formulated to locate prism vertices along the time axis using observable trip starting or ending times as the dependent variable, and commute characteristics, personal and household attributes and area characteristics as explanatory variables. Models are estimated successfully with coherent behavioral indications. A mean difference of 1.46 hours is found between the observed trip ending time and the expected location of the terminal vertex for workers' evening prisms. The estimation results aid in enhancing our understanding of prism constraints by identifying the determinants of prism vertex locations.

非集計交通需要分析のための将来世帯属性生成システムの構築査読有り Open Access

西田悟史，山本俊行，藤井聡，北村隆一

土木計画学研究・論文集 17 巻頁： 779-787 2000年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

将来交通需要予測に非集計交通行動分析手法を適用する場合には，将来時点の非集計世帯属性データを用意する必要がある．本研究では，現在時点の非集計データを基に，現在時点の複数の周辺分布に合わせた拡大係数を算出し，その上で個々の世帯の属性変化をシミュレートするシステムを構築した．構築したシステムを大阪市の将来予測に適用した結果，構築したシステムと従来の拡大係数では現在時点のトリップ数や自動車保有台数の分布が異なること，1990年のデータを基に1995年度を予測対象年とした場合に実績値をおおよそ再現出来ていること，2020年では人口予測値の分布に最頻値付近での集中が見られる等の知見を得た．

DOI： 10.2208/journalip.17.779

Open Access

住民参加型の政策決定を目指した交通政策に関する住民意識の分析査読有り

山本俊行，芦谷隆介，藤井聡，北村隆一

交通科学 30 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 40-49 2000年

担当区分：筆頭著者記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

交通政策意思決定を行う場合，政策受益者である住民の意思が反映されていることが不可欠である．政策立案時に計画者が住民の個々の政策に対する意思を把握することは，そのための必要条件であると考えられる．本研究では，住民参加型の政策決定を実現するための基礎的な研究として，個々の住民が主観的に感じる政策の重要度と，個人属性，交通環境等との関係を分析した．さらに，自分自身の立場と自治体全体を考えた場合の重要度の差異についても分析を加え，地域・経済属性によって異なる住民意識を把握した．

マイクロシミュレーションアプローチによる都市交通計画のための交通需要予測システムの提案査読有り Open Access

飯田祐三，岩辺路由，菊池輝，北村隆一，佐々木邦明，白水靖郎，中川大，波床正敏，藤井聡，森川高行，山本俊行

土木計画学研究・論文集 17 巻頁： 841-848 2000年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

本研究では，四段階推計法に変わる新しい需要予測手法として，マイクロシミュレーションアプローチに基づく予測システムを提案する．このシステムは，1）個人の生活行動を再現するマイクロシミュレータPCATS，2）道路上の動的な交通流を再現する交通流シミュレータDEBNetS，3）世帯構成の変遷を逐一計算する世帯シミュレータ，4）公共交通機関ネットワークとダイヤを所与としてゾーン間移動抵抗データを算定するシステム，の4つから構成されるものである．当該システムを用いて予測を行った結果，現況交通状態が概ね再現されていることが示された．

DOI： 10.2208/journalip.17.841

Open Access

Self-reinforcing motorization: can travel demand management take us out of the social trap? 査読有り

Ryuichi Kitamura, Shoichiro Nakayama and Toshiyuki Yamamoto

Transport Policy 6 巻 ( 3 ) 頁： 135-145 1999年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

Motorization is a self-reinforcing process which involves positive feedback. Using a simple model of bi-modal transportation system, it is shown that a transportation system may eventually be dominated by the automobile, or may equilibrates at a grossly inefficient point due to social dilemmas associated with automobile use. Furthermore, in areas with well developed public transit, road capacity addition can be detrimental not only to the public transit but also to the automotive transportation. TDM measures are conceived in this study as mechanisms to prevent the divergence of the motorization process away from a social optimum due to its positive feedback and social dilemmas. A simple model of bi-modal transportation system and a cellular automata model of individuals' TDM compliance behavior are combined in the study to see how TDM measures that rely on individuals' voluntary cooperation may be effective. Results of simulation analyses based on the model are presented.

Vehicle Ownership Model That Incorporates the Causal Structure Underlying Attitudes Toward Vehicle Ownership 査読有り

Ge Wu, Toshiyuki Yamamoto and Ryuichi Kitamura

Transportation Research Record ( 1676 ) 頁： 61-67 1999年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

Household vehicle ownership behavior is governed by not only economic considerations but also psychological and sociological factors. The latter factors are expected to play important roles in earlier stages of motorization. Previous disaggregate models of household vehicle ownership behavior, however, have been developed mostly for countries with mature motorization and most often have included only economic factors as explanatory variables that determine the utility of a household vehicle. These models are limited as models of vehicle ownership behavior in earlier stages of motorization if psychological and sociological factors are in fact significant determinants of household vehicle ownership decision. Considered in this study is the concept of “Symbolic Utility" of vehicle ownership, which refers to psychological satisfaction from owning and using a vehicle. Based on analyses of the causal structure among attitudes towards vehicle ownership, a vehicle ownership model system is developed in the study. The results of this study suggest that attitudes towards vehicle ownership have effects on vehicle ownership preference, and the accuracy of vehicle ownership choice models can be improved by taking symbolic utility into consideration. The results of the model estimation also indicate the presence of cognitive dissonance of non-owner households and “Veblen effects" of vehicle ownership.

Competing-Risks-Duration Model of Household Vehicle Transactions with Indicators of Changes in Explanatory Variables 査読有り

Toshiyuki Yamamoto, Ryuichi Kitamura and Seiji Kimura

Transportation Research Record ( 1676 ) 頁： 116-123 1999年

担当区分：筆頭著者記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

in this study. The model is developed assuming the following three types of competing risks: replacing one of the vehicles in the household fleet, disposing of one vehicle in the fleet, and acquiring one vehicle to add to the fleet. In addition to the attributes of household, changes in household attributes are expected to have strong effects on vehicle transactions behavior. To account for their effects, dummy variables indicating the occurrence of a change in selected household attributes are defined as time varying covariates and introduced into the model. In addition, vehicle transactions themselves change the needs and motivations for vehicles holding, affecting the timing and the type of the transaction that immediately follows. Dummy variables indicating the type of the preceding transaction are also introduced as time varying covariates into the model. The results of the empirical analysis using a data set collected in a panel survey empirically support the theoretical considerations underlying the model development, and indicate that the effects of changes in household attributes and that of a preceding transaction are well represented in the model.

An Analysis of Time Allocation to In-home and Out-of-home Discretionary Activities across Working Days and Non-working Days 査読有り

Toshiyuki Yamamoto and Ryuichi Kitamura

Transportation 26 巻 ( 2 ) 頁： 211-230 1999年

担当区分：筆頭著者記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

The behavior of time allocation to two types of discretionary activities is formulated as a doubly-censored Tobit model. The model is capable of incorporating cases where the entire amount of time available for discretionary activity is allocated to one type of activity and the other type of activity is not engaged at all. The model is applied to examine individuals' allocation of time to in-home and out-of-home discretionary activities on working days and non-working days, using a weekly time-use data set from the Netherlands. Workers' daily activity patterns vary significantly between working days and non-working days, while it can be expected that patterns of time allocation are correlated between working days and non-working days. A set of error components is introduced into the model to represent this correlation, adopting a mass point approach which requires no assumption about the distribution of the error components. The validity of the model is examined statistically.

A Development of Disaggregate Models of Household Vehicle Ownership for Earlier Stages of Motorization 査読有り

Wu, G., T. Yamamoto and R. Kitamura

In Shanghai Institute of Traffic Engineering (ed.), A Better Urban Transportation for the New Century? '99 Shanghai International Symposium on Urban Transportation Proceedings 頁： 186-195 1999年

A Competing Risks Duration Model of Household Vehicle Transactions That Accounts for the Effects of the Occurrences of Changes in Explanatory Variables 査読有り

Yamamoto, T. and R. Kitamura and S. Kimura

Preprint CD-ROM of the 78th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board 1999年

将来交通需要予測のため世帯属性生成システムの構築

西田悟史・山本俊行・藤井聡・北村隆一

土木計画学研究・講演集 22 巻 ( 2 ) 頁： 235-238 1999年

消費行動の社会的依存性を考慮した自動車保有意識の分析

呉戈．山本俊行・北村隆一

土木計画学研究・講演集 22 巻 ( 2 ) 頁： 595-598 1999年

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