研究者詳細 - 谷川　寛樹

同一性判定システムを用いた東京都市圏における建設資材の偏在性及び動態に関する研究査読有り

朝隈友哉, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

廃棄物資源循環学会研究発表会講演集 30 巻 ( 0 ) 頁： 59 2019年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：一般社団法人廃棄物資源循環学会

循環型社会の形成に向け、都市における詳細な物質ストック分布を時系列で広範囲に渡って把握することが求められる。本研究では、地理情報システム(GIS)による建築物を対象とした年代間の同一性判定を用いることで、東京都市圏における建設資材の偏在性及び動態に関する推計を行なった。結果として、東京都市圏全体で2003年から2014年にかけて建設資材蓄積量は1954百万トンから2363百万トンとなり1.21倍増加した。各都道府県で増加率は1.19から1.24であり、建設資材蓄積量と成長率が比例しないことが示された。また、東京都では2009年から2014年にかけて投入量が108百万トン、廃棄量が62.6百万トンであり、建設資材投入量が建設資材廃棄量を上回った。さらに、ストックとフローの関係より、各都市で資材蓄積が行われている一方で、物質代謝の速度が減少していることが明らかとなった。

DOI： 10.14912/jsmcwm.30.0_59

南海トラフ巨大地震における市町村別の仮置場の検討：大阪府、兵庫県、岡山県の事例研究査読有り

石川湧裕, 立尾浩一, 奥岡桂次郎, 橋本征二, 谷川寛樹

廃棄物資源循環学会研究発表会講演集 30 巻 ( 0 ) 頁： 141 2019年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：一般社団法人廃棄物資源循環学会

2011年3月に発生した東日本大震災においては、膨大な災害廃棄物の問題が浮き彫りとなったが、近年発生すると予想されている南海トラフ巨大地震の災害廃棄物量は、最大で東日本大震災の約11倍と推計されている。災害廃棄物の迅速な処理に必要不可欠なのが、災害廃棄物を一時的に保管する仮置場の確保である。東日本大震災においても、また、2016年4月に発生した熊本地震においても、仮置場の不足が大きな課題となった。本研究では、大阪府、兵庫県、岡山県を対象に、南海トラフ巨大地震により発生する災害廃棄物量を市区町村ごとに推計し、各市区町村における仮置場の利用可能面積と必要面積の比較検討を行った。本要旨では、大阪府についての結果を報告する。

DOI： 10.14912/jsmcwm.30.0_141

Anthropogenic Disturbance by Domestic Extraction of Gold Mining in Mongolia

ENKHMUNKH Ganbold, YAMASUE Eiji, MIATTO Alessio, TANIKAWA Hiroki

土木学会論文集Ｇ（環境） 75 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： II_285 - II_290 2019年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：公益社団法人土木学会

Mining, husbandry, and construction activities are consuming a large amount of natural resources. These processes have multiple impacts on the environment, including the excavation of large areas. This research focuses on gold mining in Mongolia, and aims (1) to identify the gold mining activities and allocated them on a map, and (2) to quantify the material flows related to gold mining. Statistical datasets, sourced by the Mineral Resources of Mongolia and the National Statistical Office of Mongolia, were used to account for domestic extraction. Two methods were used for mapping mining activities: firstly, the degraded areas were identified through a geographic information system (GIS) software; secondly, the domestic extraction of gold mining was estimated by the standardized method of material flow accounting. Results indicate the Mongolian gold mining activities exploited 9,812 ha of land across 18 different provinces. In addition, 745,300 m3 of soil was excavated to produce 132 tons of gold in 2007-2017. Particularly, during this period 100.8 tonnes of green gold was extracted which means the gold extraction that does not include any chemical process and just washing soil to obtain gold. "Green Gold" is recognized as less environmental impact by the European market. This study will be beneficial to the Mongolian government to better understand the environmental burden related to the gold mining activities in the country.

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.75.6_ii_285

4d-GISによる最尤法を用いた建設副産物発生量の将来推計 -名古屋市中心部のケーススタディ- 査読有り

正木晃平, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

廃棄物資源循環学会研究発表会講演集 30 巻 ( 0 ) 頁： 61 2019年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：一般社団法人廃棄物資源循環学会

高度経済成長期に蓄積された構造物が老朽化し滞留年数を迎えることによって、今後、建設系副産物の排出量が増大すると予想され、適切に処理するために将来における建設廃棄物排出量の予測が必要となる。本研究では、3次元のGIS（地理情報システム）データに時系列を加えた4d-GISを用いて、奥岡らによる最尤推定法及びモンテカルロシュミレーションにより、各建築物について解体判定を行うことで、将来における建築物副産物の発生量を推計した。対象地域は名古屋市中心部である。詳細地域における地理的条件・社会的条件を考慮した建設副産物発生量の予測を可能とした。結果として、建設副産物発生量は2015-2019年に207.3千トン、2030-2034年に229.5千トンと推計され、緩やかな増加傾向にあった。構造別にみると、木造及び鉄骨造は減少傾向にあり、RC造（鉄筋コンクリート造）は増加傾向にあった。

DOI： 10.14912/jsmcwm.30.0_61

廃棄物産業連関表及び森林・都市動態モデルによる木質資源量の評価査読有り

山下奈穂, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

廃棄物資源循環学会研究発表会講演集 30 巻 ( 0 ) 頁： 75 2019年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：一般社団法人廃棄物資源循環学会

間伐材や枝葉・根珠は、低位利用材として潜在需要を有するが、経済統計等の従来の分析によって捉えることが困難である。このような隠れたフローを計測し、効率的な活用システムを構築することは政策的に重要である。本研究では対象地域を日本全国として木質資源量の推計を行った。廃棄物産業連関分析には2000年版の廃棄物産業連関表を応用し、森林・都市動態モデル(Forest and Urban Dynamic Model, FUDM)を用いた推計には林業センサス(2000)の齢級別森林面積をもとに住宅用木材需給の将来変化を踏まえながら未利用資源量の推計を行った。未利用残材量及び炭素蓄積量について、廃棄物産業連関分析では事業系の草・木及びその他の資源量が2,100トン/百万円，炭素蓄積量が2億トン、森林・都市動態モデルでは6億トンの炭素蓄積量が推定され、比較すると4億トン以上の炭素蓄積量の差異が確認された。

DOI： 10.14912/jsmcwm.30.0_75

Sustainability indicators from resource flow trends in the Philippines 査読有り

Martinico-Perez, MFG; Schandl, H; Tanikawa, H

RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 138 巻頁： 74 - 86 2018年11月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Resources, Conservation and Recycling

The topics of resource efficiency, pollution reduction and waste minimization have become important global policy goals and have gained prominence in developing countries in the context of the new Sustainable Development Goals. These pose challenges to the policy community in the formulation of plausible and ambitious targets for resource use, greenhouse gas emissions and waste. To bridge this gap, we utilize the material flow indicators derived from standard MFA methodology to show trends in material use, waste and emissions in the Philippines. We find that direct material inputs in the Philippines grew at 2.4% yearly, from 293 million tonnes in 1980 to 661 million tonnes in 2014. Domestic processed output, or materials released to environment has tripled from 96 million tonnes in 1980 to 260 million tonnes in 2014, with 89% as emission to air. The environmental Kuznets curve shows that the growing economy entails greater pressure to the environment. Net additions to stock grew slower than waste and emissions which is testament of a lack of infrastructure investment in the Philippines. Such a comprehensive material flow account responds to the information requirements of a modern environmental policy stance that looks at economy and environment simultaneously and has not previously been available. These findings call for policies to increase resource efficiency and improvement on recycling system, strict implementation of policies related to solid wastes management, mitigating air emission, and wastewater. The new dataset also shows slow progress in achieving SDG targets 8.4, 12.2 and 12.5.

DOI： 10.1016/j.resconrec.2018.07.003

Stagnating CO2 emissions with in-depth socioeconomic transition in Beijing 査読有り

Wang, J; Xiong, YL; Tian, X; Liu, SW; Li, JS; Tanikawa, H

APPLIED ENERGY 228 巻頁： 1714 - 1725 2018年10月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Applied Energy

Curbing the growth of global CO2 emissions and limiting global average temperature rise to well below 2 °C are important targets for the international society after the Paris Climate Change Conference. Given the continuously increasing emission trends in most of the developing world, peaking emissions as soon as possible during the developing and transition process is a key challenge in realizing the target globally. In this study, we established a comprehensive analysis framework for peaking stage analysis, based on three scopes accounting, and estimating the impact of in-depth socioeconomic transitions on peaking stages. We further applied it to Beijing, which reversed its growth trend in CO2 emissions and acted as a pioneer in fulfilling the peaking target of emissions during in-depth socioeconomic transition period, in recent years. We found that the turning point for production-based CO2 emissions in Beijing appeared around 2007, which stopped growing and has since been fluctuating around 100 Mt. During the in-depth industrialization process, accelerating the elimination of energy and carbon intensive industries, such as resource-related heavy manufacturing, promoting the transition from industries to services, and upgrading the internal structure of industries, were key factors determining the CO2 emissions peak in Beijing. Meanwhile, the optimization of the internal production structure of consumer and producer services also led to a declining trend of services with the in-depth industrial transition. During the in-depth urbanization process, the reduced CO2 intensity and optimized production structure of shelter and household equipment, and upgraded services dominated consumption structure were the main reasons for urban household CO2 mitigation. Clarifying the mechanism of the CO2 emissions peak during the in-depth socioeconomic transition period in Beijing will help us understand the challenges of peak better and provide valuable references for other countries and regions in the developing world that are facing peaking emissions challenges in the processes of their development.

DOI： 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.07.029

Proliferation of district heating using local energy resources through strategic building-stock management: A case study in Fukushima, Japan 査読有り

Dou, Y; Okuoka, K; Fujii, M; Tanikawa, H; Fujita, T; Togawa, T; Dong, L

FRONTIERS IN ENERGY 12 巻 ( 3 ) 頁： 411 - 425 2018年9月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Frontiers in Energy

District heating systems using cogeneration technology and renewable resources are considered as an effective approach to resources conservation and reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, widespread aging and depopulation problems, as well as the popularization of energy-saving technologies in buildings, are estimated to greatly decrease energy consumption, leading to inefficiency in district heating and barriers to technology proliferation. From a long-term perspective, land use changes, especially the progression of compact city plans, have the potential to offset the decrement in energy consumption that maintains the efficiency of district heating systems. An integrated model is developed in this paper based on building cohort analysis to evaluate the economic feasibility and environmental impact of introducing district heating systems to a long-term compact city plan. As applied to a case in the Soma Region of Fukushima, Japan, potential migration from the suburbs to the central station districts is simulated, where district heating based on gas-fired cogeneration is expected to be introduced. The results indicate that guided migration to produce concentrated centers of population can substantially increase the heat demand density, which supports a wider application of district heating systems and better low-carbon performance. These results are further discussed in relation to technology innovation and related policies. It is concluded that policies related to urban land use planning and energy management should be integrated and quantitatively evaluated over the long-term with the aim of supporting urban low-carbon sustainable development.

DOI： 10.1007/s11708-018-0577-8

Global Material Flows and Resource Productivity: Forty Years of Evidence 査読有り

Schandl, H; Fischer-Kowalski, M; West, J; Giljum, S; Dittrich, M; Eisenmenger, N; Geschke, A; Lieber, M; Wieland, H; Schaffartzik, A; Krausmann, F; Gierlinger, S; Hosking, K; Lenzen, M; Tanikawa, H; Miatto, A; Fishman, T

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 22 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 827 - 838 2018年8月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Industrial Ecology

The international industrial ecology (IE) research community and United Nations (UN) Environment have, for the first time, agreed on an authoritative and comprehensive data set for global material extraction and trade covering 40 years of global economic activity and natural resource use. This new data set is becoming the standard information source for decision making at the UN in the context of the post-2015 development agenda, which acknowledges the strong links between sustainable natural resource management, economic prosperity, and human well-being. Only if economic growth and human development can become substantially decoupled from accelerating material use, waste, and emissions can the tensions inherent in the Sustainable Development Goals be resolved and inclusive human development be achieved. In this paper, we summarize the key findings of the assessment study to make the IE research community aware of this new global research resource. The global results show a massive increase in materials extraction from 22 billion tonnes (Bt) in 1970 to 70 Bt in 2010, and an acceleration in material extraction since 2000. This acceleration has occurred at a time when global population growth has slowed and global economic growth has stalled. The global surge in material extraction has been driven by growing wealth and consumption and accelerating trade. A material footprint perspective shows that demand for materials has grown even in the wealthiest parts of the world. Low-income countries have benefited least from growing global resource availability and have continued to deliver primary materials to high-income countries while experiencing few improvements in their domestic material living standards. Material efficiency, the amount of primary materials required per unit of economic activity, has declined since around 2000 because of a shift of global production from very material-efficient economies to less-efficient ones. This global trend of recoupling economic activity with material use, driven by industrialization and urbanization in the global South, most notably Asia, has negative impacts on a suite of environmental and social issues, including natural resource depletion, climate change, loss of biodiversity, and uneven economic development. This research is a good example of the IE research community providing information for evidence-based policy making on the global stage and testament to the growing importance of IE research in achieving global sustainable development.

DOI： 10.1111/jiec.12626

The Socio-Economic Metabolism of an Emerging Economy: Monitoring Progress of Decoupling of Economic Growth and Environmental Pressures in the Philippines 査読有り

Martinico-Perez, MFG; Schandl, H; Fishman, T; Tanikawa, H

ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS 147 巻頁： 155 - 166 2018年5月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Ecological Economics

In many Asian developing countries, policy makers face tension between the needs of economic growth, human development and environmental sustainability. In a similar vein, the new global agreement on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) calls for the harmonization of economic and environmental goals. To shed light on the relationship between the economy and natural resources, our research investigates the case of the Philippines, employing a material flow accounting approach based on national statistical sources. We analyze domestic extraction, trade of materials and economic development from 1980 to 2014. We also explore differences between territorial (production) and footprint (consumption) accounts. We find that the Philippine economy managed to grow while reducing material intensity because of an increasing share of services sector activities. From net resource trade dependence in the 1980s, the Philippines become a net resource provider in 2014 because of increased extraction and exports of metal ores. Overall, the material requirements grew over the past two decades at lower rate than GDP, signifying relative decoupling. The new data and indicators we present are aimed to inform the national policy agenda. They may help to formulate policies that integrate economic and environmental priorities and guide the Philippines towards achieving the SDGs.

DOI： 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.01.012

Potential of Waste Heat Exchange Considering Industrial Location Changes: A Case of Shinchi-Soma Region in Fukushima, Japan 査読有り

Yi Dou, Minoru Fujii, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Kei Gomi, Seiya Maki, Hiroki Tanikawa

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers 2018年4月

Anthropogenic Disturbance by Domestic Extraction of Construction Minerals in Japan 査読有り

Yoshida, K; Okuoka, K; Tanikawa, H

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 22 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 145 - 154 2018年2月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Industrial Ecology

Accompanying the huge amount of material accumulation in the socioeconomic sphere is anthropogenic disturbance, namely, artificial landform transformation attributed to mining, soil excavation, construction, and physical development. Anthropogenic disturbance impacts the natural environment and is strongly related to hidden material flow (HMF). However, only few studies have considered anthropogenic disturbance as the starting point of material transfer in the ecosphere. The objectives of the present study are: (1) to spatially quantify the impact of humans on the natural environment by estimating the anthropogenic disturbance attributed to mining and (2) to contribute to the knowledge of HMF by examining the phenomenon using the relatively unexplored methodology of assessing the relationship between anthropogenic disturbance and material transfer by means of a geographical information system and digital elevation model. Statistical data obtained by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan were used to account for domestic extraction. By comparing the respective results of bottom-up and top-down accountings, we estimated the potential HMF. The database developed in this study not only reflects the amount of anthropogenic disturbance and potential HMF, but also reveals their destructive effect on the environment and the spatial distribution of anthropogenic disturbance.

DOI： 10.1111/jiec.12543

Feasibility of developing heat exchange network between incineration facilities and industries in cities: Case of Tokyo Metropolitan Area 査読有り

Dou, Y; Ohnishi, S; Fujii, M; Togawa, T; Fujita, T; Tanikawa, H; Dong, L

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 170 巻頁： 548 - 558 2018年1月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Cleaner Production

Energy conservation is critical for promoting urban low-carbon and sustainable development. Because a large amount of heat energy is wasted during energy conversion and transportation, the recovery of waste heat and its cascading use would substantially save resources and reduce CO2 emissions. As a typical case of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, direct extracting steam from incinerators for industrial use is considered more efficient than power generation, but hard to be popularized because of long distance heat transport. On the basis of the heat atlas, this study develops an integrated model to assess the feasibility of developing heat exchange network between incineration facilities and industries in city scale, and evaluates the impacts from land use on economic and environmental indices. The result reveals that maximum 45.2% of the incineration waste heat can be utilized to cover 13.8% of the heat consumption in industries, where annual net benefit and CO2 emission reduction could achieve 63 billion JPY (≈0.6 billion USD) and 2200 kt CO2/year, respectively. However, current geographic separation between incineration facilities and industries brings a dilemma between economic and environmental benefits which will obstruct the popularization of waste heat exchange. Given this result, a cluster map to classify involved incineration facilities is provided which helps in establishing a renewal strategy considering positive land use adjustment. These results are also referable in urban planning integrated with distributed energy system as well as provide a case for promoting Urban Symbiosis.

DOI： 10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.09.147

Innovative planning and evaluation system for district heating using waste heat considering spatial configuration: A case in Fukushima, Japan 査読有り

Dou, Y; Togawa, T; Dong, L; Fujii, M; Ohnishi, S; Tanikawa, H; Fujita, T

RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 128 巻頁： 406 - 416 2018年1月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Resources, Conservation and Recycling

Energy shortage and global climate change have created a dilemma in Japan, especially after the great earthquake of 2011 in eastern Japan. District Heating System (DHS) using waste heat is highlighted as an attractive solution. However, because of low heat demand in urban areas and the geographic separation of industries, popularizing this solution is considerably difficult in Japan. Previous studies have focused on technical improvements on existing district heating networks, but these studies lack sufficient discussion on an early-stage integrated land-use planning. Supported by technological assessment and emerging concepts of Industrial-Urban Symbiosis (I-US), this study combines the system development of DHS and land use scenarios into a symbiotic design based on inventory survey and geographic database, and conducts a cost-benefit analysis to scientifically and quantitatively evaluate the effects brought from land-use policies. Results from a case study of Shinchi Town in the Fukushima Prefecture indicate DHS using waste heat can realize significant benefits of energy saving and CO2 reduction, provided positive guidance on land use planning is implemented. Moreover, the model framework of this study also supports a quantitative assessment on policy implementation to help in decision making on urban sustainable energy planning.

DOI： 10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.03.006

名古屋市中心部における4d-GISを用いた建築物滞留年推計モデルの構築と物質ストック分析

奥岡桂次郎, 野中一鴻, 谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集Ｇ（環境） 74 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： II_267 - II_273 2018年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：公益社団法人土木学会

循環型社会の実現に向けて，廃棄物の発生源となる物質ストック及び物質代謝を詳細に把握することが重要である．社会的背景や地理的要因が物質代謝に与える影響について把握する必要がある．本研究では，名古屋市中心部(約12km2)を対象に，1949年から2009年における各構造物単位(建築物，道路，鉄道)での都市構造物データベースを構築した．建築物滞留年推計モデルを構築し，社会的・地理的パラメータを説明変数として分析し，階数，人口密度，建物工法，公定歩合の変化ごとの建築物滞留年を推計した．また，名古屋市中心部2003年から2009年の6年で解体される建築物について実データと建築物滞留年推計モデルのシミュレーションによる結果を比較，検討した．解体判定が正確に行えたのは6.03Mt中の4.89Mtであり，RC造で高層な建築物ほど正確な解体判定が行えた．

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.74.ii_267

建築物の年代間での同一性判定を用いた東京都市圏における更新量の推計査読有り

朝隈友哉, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学論文集 ceis32 巻 ( 0 ) 頁： 13 - 18 2018年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：一般社団法人環境情報科学センター

循環型社会形成に向けて，都市における詳細な物質ストック分布を時系列で広範囲に渡って把握することが急務である。本研究では，地理情報システムによる年代間での同一性判定を用いることで，東京都市圏における空間分布及び時間変化を可視化し，建築物更新量の推計を行った。東京都での建築物更新は2003 年から2009 年にかけて着工総面積が134 百万m2，解体総面積が 80 百万m2，2009 年から2015 年にかけて着工総面積が103 百万m2，解体総面積が96 百万m2 となった。本研究で推計された着工量は，東京都統計年報による統計値と比較して0.7-1.2 倍，解体量は3 倍程度の値となった。

DOI： 10.11492/ceispapers.ceis32.0_13