研究者詳細 - 谷川　寛樹

CO2 uptake estimation in Japan's cement lifecycle 査読有り Open Access

Sawa, D; Yamashita, N; Tanikawa, H; Daigo, I; Maruyama, I

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 486 巻 2025年1月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Cleaner Production

Carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake by cement-containing products has attracted significant interest as an important source of CO2 absorption. This study provides an advanced estimation of CO2 uptake during the cement lifecycle in Japan by incorporating dynamic material stock-flow analysis into the model. Concrete stock-flow and CO2 uptake from 1870 to 2070 are estimated by reflecting country-specific characteristics such as concrete mix design, surface-to-volume ratio of buildings, presence or absence of coating resins and/or covering materials, and exposure climate. Annual CO2 uptake in the cement lifecycle was estimated to be 2.6 million tonnes/year in 2020, corresponding to 13.9% of CO2 emissions from calcination during cement production. Annual CO2 uptake by in-use concrete accounted for 86.8% of the total in 2020, whereas that by end-of-life concrete was relatively small throughout the estimation period. CO2 uptake is expected to increase slightly in the late 2020s, then decrease to 2.3 to 2.4 million tonnes/year by 2070. Our results were lowered by comparing those of previous studies, suggesting that the most critical aspect was affected by the local climate. The high-precision analysis highlighted the importance of integrating local climate factors, surface-to-volume ratio of structures based on the domestic design guidelines and examples, and modeling of end-of-life concrete, providing fundamental knowledge for incorporating CO2 uptake into the carbon-neutral strategy of Japanese cement industry.

DOI： 10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.144542

建築物の滞留年数の変化による将来の主要建設資材の投入量及びCO2排出量への影響評価査読有り Open Access

藤川奈々, 山下奈穂, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 53 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 66 - 73 2024年12月

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：一般社団法人環境情報科学センター

建築物や社会基盤施設などの都市構造物には大量の建設資材が投入，蓄積されており，これらの物質ストックを長期間にわたりどのように維持管理するかが脱炭素・循環型社会を実現する上で大きな課題である。本研究では，日本全国の建築物のストック・フローを推計し，建築物の滞留年数の変化による将来の主要建設資材の投入量とCO2排出量への影響を検討した。結果，本研究で設定したシナリオ条件では，現役ストックの耐用年数の延長により，2100年の主要建設資材の投入量とCO2排出量は現状の耐用年数を維持するシナリオと比較して約5割減少すると見込まれた。一方，退蔵ストックの処理の違いによるシナリオ間の差は見られなかった。

DOI： 10.11492/eis.53.4_66

Global material flows and resource productivity: The 2024 update 査読有り Open Access

Schandl, H; Marcos-Martinez, R; West, J; Miatto, A; Lutter, S; Lieber, M; Giljum, S; Lenzen, M; Li, MY; Wang, HM; Tanikawa, H; Krausmann, F; Eisenmenger, N; Fischer-Kowalski, M

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 28 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： 2012 - 2031 2024年12月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Industrial Ecology

Accurate assessments of global primary material extraction, trade of primary materials and products, material use, waste, and emissions support the development of policies that facilitate the decoupling of economic activity, natural resource use, and related environmental impacts. Here, we quantify all crucial aspects of global and country-by-country material requirements needed to fuel economic activities, covering both territorial- and demand-based indicators. These data have been assembled by a consortium of research partners that compile the global material flow and resource productivity online database for the International Resource Panel, which contributes to the global dataset for the System of Environmental–Economic Accounting (SEEA) framework and is employed to monitor progress for the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators 8.4 and 12.2. We present the main findings of the 2024 update, including methodological improvements and result differences, and discuss the main findings and limitations. Since the last update, we have identified a slowing of global materials extraction since about 2014, a continuation of solid growth in direct trade of materials and products, persistent inequality in resource use between high- and low-income countries, and a prolonged improvement in global material productivity. The full dataset used herein can be downloaded from the Global Material Flow Database hosted by the United Nations Environment Program International Resource Panel.

DOI： 10.1111/jiec.13593

An interlinked dynamic model of timber and carbon stocks in Japan's wooden houses and plantation forests 査読有り Open Access

Yamashita, N; Fishman, T; Kayo, C; Tanikawa, H

SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION 52 巻頁： 314 - 323 2024年12月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Sustainable Production and Consumption

Carbon absorption in growing trees is an important element of a carbon-neutral society, and the long-term storage of carbon stocks is a crucial sustainability challenge. Previous studies have focused on either live-biomass carbon stocks in plantation forests or anthropogenic carbon stocks in man-made objects. For a comprehensive nature-based climate solution, an analytical framework, dataset, and scenario setup for modeling the interrelationship between timber supply and demand are required. This study developed an interlinked material flow analysis model in which the timber demand for wooden houses is connected with timber supply from managed plantation forestry. We demonstrate the model by quantifying both live-biomass and anthropogenic carbon stocks and their potentials in Japan. We compared multiple scenario-runs of the model for wooden house demands estimated by population change with varying combinations of house types, structures, and lifespans. Our results show that carbon stocks will reach a maximum amount of 1.1 billion t-C by 2050 in a scenario of high demand for wooden detached houses with lifespan extensions. On the other hand, we also found that the aging of plantation forests and their reduced carbon-stocking capacities appear inevitable in any scenario owing to the limited demand for timber. Notably, despite the widely different settings of the various scenarios, our results exhibited narrow variances in future potential carbon storage in Japan. This can be explained by the unique population characteristics and building demographics of Japan. These counterintuitive findings highlight the need for interrelated modeling of the forestry and construction sectors. Our model and its scope are versatile and applicable to other case study areas, estimation periods, and target materials.

DOI： 10.1016/j.spc.2024.11.003

From expansion to efficiency: Machine learning-based forecasting of Japan's building material stocks under demographic declines 査読有り

Wang, L; Zhang, RR; Liu, ZW; Shirakawa, H; Tanikawa, H

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 951 巻頁： 175634 2024年11月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Science of the Total Environment

Japan's unique demographic trajectory, marked by population decline and aging, coupled with continued urbanization, presents distinct challenges for aligning built environment capacity with resource efficiency. This study aims to investigate the historical evolution and project future scenarios of building material stock (MS) and their spatial distribution across Japan's three major metropolitan areas. Through a comprehensive material flow and stock analysis, the historical accumulation of building materials from 2009 to 2020 was quantified, revealing a dominance of concrete and an increasing overall stock. The contributions of various driving factors to changes in construction areas were explored, identifying population dynamics as the predominant influence. Leveraging shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSPs), this research forecasted building floor area and MS until 2050 under five distinct SSPs. The results indicated an overall reduction across all scenarios, yet with a continued concentration in high-density urban cores. The substantial gap between the highest and lowest projected MS scenarios highlighted opportunities for material conservation and emission reductions through sustainable practices. Sustainable urban development in densely populated regions necessitates a balance between infrastructure provision and environmental conservation, while in sparsely populated areas, the focus shifts to the efficient management and utilization of vacant properties and materials to cope with the impacts of significant population declines. By offering insights into the building floor area and MS implications of Japan's demographic changes, this study underscores the necessity of sustainable urban planning and resource management strategies to navigate the challenges posed by demographic shifts, ultimately contributing to sustainable development and environmental conservation goals.

DOI： 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175634

Dynamic analysis of carbon emissions from construction and demolition activities in Japan: Revealed by high-resolution 4D-GIS modeling 査読有り

Adaptive Nighttime-Light-Based Building Stock Assessment Framework for Future Environmentally Sustainable Management 査読有り Open Access

Liu, ZW; Guo, J; Zhang, RR; Ota, Y; Nagata, S; Shirakawa, H; Tanikawa, H

REMOTE SENSING 16 巻 ( 13 ) 2024年7月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Remote Sensing

The accumulation of artificially built environment stock during urbanization processes has been actively involved in altering the material and energy use pattern of human societies. Therefore, an accurate assessment of built environment stock can provide insights for decision makers to implement appropriate environmentally sustainable retrofitting strategies. This study presents a building stock estimation enhancement framework (BSEEF) that leverages nighttime light (NTL) to accurately assess and spatially map building stocks. By innovatively integrating a region classification module with a hybrid region-specified self-optimization module, BSEEF adaptively enhances the estimation accuracy across diverse urban landscapes. A comparative case study of Japan demonstrated that BSEEF significantly outperformed a traditional linear regression model, with improvements ranging from 1.81% to 16.75% across different metrics used for assessment, providing more accurate building stock estimates. BSEEF enhances environment/sustainability studies by enabling precise spatial analysis of built environment stocks, offering a versatile and robust framework that adapts to technological changes and achieves superior accuracy without extensive reliance on complex datasets. These advances will make BSEEF an indispensable tool in strategic planning for urban development, promoting sustainable and resilient communities globally.

DOI： 10.3390/rs16132495

Bai, YY; Yamashita, N; Guo, J; Nagata, S; Shirakawa, H; Tanikawa, H

JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 360 巻頁： 121099 2024年6月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Environmental Management

To meet the 2050 decarbonization target of the global buildings and construction sector, more attention is needed to reduce carbon emissions from construction and demolition. However, current national carbon accounting studies for these activities remain limited in spatial granularity and localized applicability. This study developed a bottom-up spatiotemporal database of carbon emissions from building construction and demolition in Japan via integrating a geographic information system-based building stock model, statistical data, and survey information. Focusing on municipal-level emissions, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index approach was used to decompose spatiotemporal variations and identify the contributing factors. Results indicate that carbon emissions from Japan's construction and demolition activities fell by more than 50% between 2005 and 2020, largely due to declining new/demolished-to-stock ratio, suggesting a transition to a stock-based society. Central cities' reliance on carbon-intensive buildings positively contributed to spatial variations in their construction emissions, underscoring the importance of sustainable materials and timber designs. Differences between prefectures in demolition emission intensity highlighted the strategic placement of recycling facilities in key regions to curb transportation-related emissions. Overall, these findings provided data reference for local governments to devise tailored policies for managing construction and demolition emissions.

DOI： 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121099

将来の人口変化とインフラの退蔵化リスク査読有り

喜古響, 蛭田有希, 山下奈穂, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 53 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 132 - 132 2024年4月

気候変動を考慮した洪水ハザードエリアに賦存する建築物ストックの将来推計査読有り

細川莉来, 蛭田有希, 山下奈穂, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 53 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 121 - 121 2024年4月

Mapping and modelling global mobility infrastructure stocks, material flows and their embodied greenhouse gas emissions 査読有り Open Access

Wiedenhofer, D; Baumgart, A; Matej, S; Virag, D; Kalt, G; Lanau, M; Tingley, DD; Liu, ZW; Guo, J; Tanikawa, H; Haberl, H

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 434 巻 2024年1月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Cleaner Production

Roads and rail-based mobility infrastructures are the basis for mobility services and underpin several Sustainable Development Goals, but also induce material use and greenhouse gas emissions. To date, no stock-flow consistent study has assessed globally accumulated stocks of mobility infrastructures, associated material flows and emissions, and their spatial patterns. We present global findings on material stocks for all roads, rail-based infrastructures, incl. tunnels and bridges, and model associated material flows and their embodied emissions for the year 2021. The stock-flow consistent model combines crowd-sourced Open Street Maps data with archetypical infrastructure designs, material compositions, assumptions on lifetimes and network growth rates, incl. uncertainty ranges. We derive spatially explicit, national-level stock estimates for 180 countries, map them at a resolution of 5 arcminutes, and derive material flows and their embodied emissions at the country-level. We find that 314 [218–403] Gt of materials (41 [28–53] tons/cap) have accumulated in global mobility infrastructure, the majority in roads as aggregates and asphalt. Stocks are unequally distributed between countries, from averages of 23 [16–30] tons/cap in low income countries, to 130 [89–164] tons/cap in high income countries. Spatial inequality of per capita stocks per area differs by orders of magnitude, from 101-104 between rural, suburban, and dense urban areas. We find that 8 [4–16] Gt/year of material flows are due to expansion and maintenance, amounting to 6 [3–10] % of global resource extraction. These translate into 0.36 [0.19–0.69] Gt CO2eq/year, or 1 [0.5–1.9] % of global GHG emissions in 2021. Approximately two-thirds of these flows result from maintenance and replacement of stocks, indicating an important lock-in of resource use due to already existing infrastructure stocks. These findings support the crucial role of improving spatial planning, limiting stock expansion and (sub-)urbanization, to achieve more sustainable resource use and mitigate climate change.

DOI： 10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.139742

循環型社会形成のための指標開発と環境・経済・社会の統合的評価

橋本征二, 近藤康之, 粟生木千佳, 谷川寛樹, 高木重定, 中西翔太郎, 谷口友莉

日本LCA学会誌 20 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 19 - 28 2024年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：日本LCA学会

本稿は、環境研究総合推進費（JPMEERF20193002）による研究成果の概要を報告するものである。当該研究では、第 1 に、物質ライフサイクルの 6 つの断面（環境からの資源投入、生産工程への原材料投入、生産工程での原材料利用、製品の使用、使用済み製品の処理、環境への廃物廃棄）に基づいて物質フロー・ストックの指標群を提案した。主要な素材について物質フローデータベースを構築し、主要な指標を適用してその有用性を示した。第 2 に、環境・経済・社会に対する統合的な取組を評価する手法を開発した。産業連関分析に基づく手法については、これを主要な資源循環の取組に適用し、その有用性を示した。また、「循環型社会ビジネスの市場規模」指標について、新たな対象事業とその分類を提案し、推計例を示した。第 3 に、ヨーロッパの主要国で使用されている循環経済の指標をレビューし、指標のデータベースを提供するとともに、国際比較可能性の向上に向けた検討を行った。指標のデータベースには、その定義、計算方法、必要なデータが含まれる。また、日本と欧州における主要な指標の定義の違いを検証し、比較可能性を高めるために必要な措置を提案した。

DOI： 10.3370/lca.20.19

洪水ハザードエリアにおける建設資材ストック・フローの時空間分析 Open Access

細川莉来, 永田聡太, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集 80 巻 ( 26 ) 頁： n/a 2024年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：公益社団法人土木学会

洪水ハザードエリアの建設資材ストック・フローを把握することは，将来の洪水被害予測や洪水ハザードエリアの土地利用規制を検討する際に重要である．本研究では，日本全国で建築物一棟単位から建設資材ストックの推計を行い，洪水ハザードエリアの建設資材ストック・フローを明らかにした．結果，洪水ハザードエリア内の建設資材ストックは2003年から2020年にかけて増加しており，全国の建設資材ストックの約42%を占めていた．浸水深3m以上のハザードエリア内の低層木造建築物由来のストックは2020年に全国で1.95億トンであった．全国的にハザードエリア内外で建設資材ストックの更新率が同程度となった．洪水被害を受ける可能性の高い建設資材ストックが年々増加しており，建物立地を決定する際に洪水リスクが考慮されていない可能性が示された．

DOI： 10.2208/jscejj.24-26023

共有社会経済経路を用いた気候変動による災害廃棄物ポテンシャル量への影響評価 Open Access

平山修久, 白川博章, 山下奈穂, 谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集 80 巻 ( 26 ) 頁： n/a 2024年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：公益社団法人土木学会

本研究では，社会経済シナリオであるSSP（共有社会経済経路）別の洪水氾濫解析による浸水深データを用いて，気候変動と土地利用変化による災害廃棄物ポテンシャル量への影響評価を行った．その結果，気候変動によって，1981年から2000年の基準気候と比較して，2031年から2050年では1.10〜1.30，2081年から2100年では1.06〜1.43と災害廃棄物ポテンシャル量が増大しうることを示した．また，人口分布の変化による災害廃棄物ポテンシャル量への影響について分析した結果，人口減少により気候変動による災害廃棄物ポテンシャル量は減少するが，一人当たりの災害廃棄物ポテンシャル量という災害リスクは増大しうると示した．

DOI： 10.2208/jscejj.24-26002

Paving the way to the future: Mapping historical patterns and future trends of road material stock in Japan 査読有り

Zhang, RR; Yamashita, N; Liu, ZW; Guo, J; Hiruta, Y; Shirakawa, H; Tanikawa, H

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 903 巻頁： 166632 - 166632 2023年12月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Science of the Total Environment

Roads are a fundamental component of societal infrastructure, whose decades-long lifespan has far-reaching implications for developmental decisions. The road construction and development have profound impacts on economic growth, social dynamics, and environmental sustainability. Therefore, comprehensive measurement of the current road material stock (MS) and the projection of expected future road scale based on regional socio-economic scenarios that can reflect unique local conditions are necessary. This study examined the historical changes and progression patterns of the road network across Japan from 1965 to 2020 through material flow and material stock analysis. By using the road MS time series, along with explanatory socioeconomic variables, several models including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with explanatory variables (ARIMAX), Support Vector Regression (SVR), hybrid ARIMAX-SVR, Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and Random Forest (RF) were compared. After comparison analysis, ARIMAX and hybrid ARIMAX-SVR models were employed to forecast expected road MS in each prefecture of Japan by 2050 based on national shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios. The study found that the total road MS of Japan increased 5.5-fold over 55 years. Aggregate was the dominant material, comprising over 70 % among the four materials of the total road MS. The forecast results for each prefecture were classified into three different patterns. Expected MS in most prefectures still displayed increasing trends in the five scenarios, but the projection of road MS in eight prefectures revealed a notable downward trend across each SSP scenario. For most prefectures, SSP5 displayed the highest expected road MS, followed by SSP1. SSP3 was the scenario with the lowest MS. This approach provided a more thorough understanding of the likely evolution of road MS across different SSP scenarios and could help inform decisions for resource allocation and policy formulation concerning road infrastructure management.

DOI： 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166632

下水道管渠を対象とした社会資本ストックの退蔵化リスク評価査読有り

山下奈穂, 松代竜毅, 蛭田有希, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学論文集 ceis37 巻 ( 0 ) 頁： 70 - 77 2023年12月

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：一般社団法人環境情報科学センター

<tt>近年，建築物や社会基盤施設の老朽化が課題となっており，限られた人的資源や財源によってこれら物質ストックを計画的に維持管理・更新していく必要がある。本研究では，全国の下水道管渠を例として，管渠の健全度及び人口予測に基づき将来退蔵化するリスクを検討した。推計結果から，全国の下水道管渠ストック量は</tt>2018 <tt>年に</tt>115 <tt>百万</tt>t <tt>であり，改築が必要な老朽管渠の割合はコンクリート管，塩ビ管でそれぞれ</tt>29%<tt>，</tt>13%<tt>であった。退蔵化リスクは北海道，奈良県，山口県，宮崎県，鹿児島県で高く，これらの地域では特に将来の経費回収率の低下や労働力不足を踏まえた計画的な対策が必要であると示唆された。</tt>

DOI： 10.11492/ceispapers.ceis37.0_70

都市構造物を対象とした世代間の同一性判定による建設資材ストック・フロー推計査読有り

太田裕也, 山下奈穂, 蛭田有希, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学論文集 ceis37 巻 ( 0 ) 頁： 195 - 201 2023年12月

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：一般社団法人環境情報科学センター

<tt>耐用年数を迎えた都市構造物や気候変動による自然災害の増加によって，都市に蓄積された物質ストックが将来大量に廃棄物として発生することが懸念される。都市構造物ストックの定量化は，将来の新規投入・排出フローの予測や今後の適切な維持管理計画を検討する上で重要な役割を果たす。本研究では，地理情報システムを活用し，日本全国の建築物と社会基盤施設の建設資材ストックを推計し，経時的な物質動態を明らかにした。</tt>2020 <tt>年の建築物の建設資材ストックは</tt>11,800 <tt>百万</tt>t<tt>，社会基盤施設は</tt>7,400 <tt>百万</tt>t <tt>と推計された。また，建築物の着工床面積は</tt>1 <tt>年あたり</tt>117 <tt>百万</tt>m2<tt>，滅失床面積は</tt>76 <tt>百万</tt>m2 <tt>であった。</tt>

DOI： 10.11492/ceispapers.ceis37.0_195

Sustainable assessment and resource recycling opportunities identification for China's pig industry: Integrating environmental, economic and social perspectives 査読有り

Bai, YY; Zhai, YJ; Zhang, TZ; Ren, K; Jia, YK; Zhou, XY; Cheng, ZY; Tanikawa, H; Hong, JL

SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION 39 巻頁： 425 - 437 2023年7月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Sustainable Production and Consumption

Livestock plays a vital role in the livelihoods and nutritional security of people worldwide and leads to significant environmental challenges. Manure management is a major hurdle for sustainable livestock development and serves as a critical source of natural fertilizer and green energy. Given that pork accounts for the highest meat production and consumption share, this study systematically evaluates China's pig production and main manure resource utilization scenarios from life-cycle environmental, economic, and social perspectives. Results show that China's pig production poses considerable potential environmental risks, primarily in the categories of fossil depletion, freshwater ecotoxicity, particulates formation, global warming, and water depletion. Feed production coupled with traditional manure treatment scenario contributes to 94.4 %–98.4 % of the key environmental impact categories and socioeconomic impact, with 32.0 % to 38.3 % of the economic costs also stemming from feed costs. In the energy utilization scenario, the potential benefits of fossil depletion and global warming categories resulting from the replacement of synthetic fertilizers with manure-based organic fertilizers in the traditional pig manure treatment scenario could be expanded by 89.6 % and 39.2 %, respectively. China's pig production contributed 0.72 % of the national carbon emissions in 2020. Fully utilizing energy potential and organic fertilizer from pig manure would achieve 0.63 % of national carbon reduction potential, as well as an economic benefit of $1.45 × 1012 and a social benefit of $8.89 × 109. Precision feeding technology, rebuilding the spatial connection between pig farms and arable land, and internalizing external costs were recommended to ensure the sustainable development of China's pig industry.

DOI： 10.1016/j.spc.2023.05.018

Uncovering urban transportation infrastructure expansion and sustainability challenge in Bangkok: Insights from a material stock perspective 査読有り

Khumvongsa, K; Guo, J; Theepharaksapan, S; Shirakawa, H; Tanikawa, H

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 27 巻 ( 2 ) 頁： 476 - 490 2023年4月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Industrial Ecology

Development of transportation infrastructure that extends roads and railways in Bangkok has overlooked the negative environmental impact of construction material accumulation. To analyze the extent of this impact, we originally established road and railway's material intensity coefficients and investigated spatially explicit roadway and railway material stock (MS) for the years of 2004, 2009, 2014, 2019, and 2037, based upon the master plans’ target year. We further analyzed how MS evolution relates to the city's socio-economic indicators and CO2 emission. Significant growth is found in transportation MS during 2004–2019, and roadways particularly increased from 122 to 164 million metric tons (Mt). The master plans would require 43 and 6.55 Mt construction materials for roadway and railway extension, respectively, by 2037. More material-intensive roads (cross-provincial highways and major local roads) built to the suburbs of the cities and underground/elevated structures of the mass rapid transit system in dense urban areas will require three times the annual cement and steel consumption of that in the 2004–2019 period. Furthermore, a 2–3 fold increase in the number of registered vehicles and associated CO2 emissions during the study period have brought questions to the transportation infrastructure MS efficiency. The findings of this study will enable informed decision-making regarding the concern of resource consumption and for considering environmentally friendly approaches in urban transportation planning for Bangkok and other developing cities.

DOI： 10.1111/jiec.13342

Does Deep Learning Enhance the Estimation for Spatially Explicit Built Environment Stocks through Nighttime Light Data Set? Evidence from Japanese Metropolitans 査読有り

日本における建設資材ストック・フローの時空間分析査読有り

太田裕也, 山下奈穂, 蛭田有希, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 52 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 120 - 120 2023年3月

滞留年数の延長による資源循環及び気候変動緩和への影響評価査読有り

藤川奈々, 山下奈穂, 蛭田有希, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 52 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 119 - 119 2023年3月

Liu, ZW; Saito, R; Guo, J; Hirai, C; Haga, C; Matsui, T; Shirakawa, H; Tanikawa, H

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 57 巻 ( 9 ) 頁： 3971 - 3979 2023年3月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Environmental Science and Technology

Built environment stocks have attracted much attention in recent decades because of their role in material and energy flows and environmental impacts. Spatially refined estimation of built environment stocks benefits city management, for example, in urban mining and resource circularity strategy making. Nighttime light (NTL) data sets are widely used and are regarded as high-resolution products in large-scale building stock research. However, some of their limitations, especially blooming/saturation effects, have hampered performance in estimating building stocks. In this study, we experimentally proposed and trained a convolution neural network (CNN)-based building stock estimation (CBuiSE) model and applied it to major Japanese metropolitan areas to estimate building stocks using NTL data. The results show that the CBuiSE model is capable of estimating building stocks at a relatively high resolution (approximately 830 m) and reflecting spatial distribution patterns, although the accuracy needs to be further improved to enhance the model performance. In addition, the CBuiSE model can effectively mitigate the overestimation of building stocks arising from the blooming effect of NTL. This study highlights the potential of NTL to provide a new research direction and serve as a cornerstone for future anthropogenic stock studies in the fields of sustainability and industrial ecology.

DOI： 10.1021/acs.est.2c08468

Spatial-temporal dynamics of the built environment toward sustainability: A material stock and flow analysis in Chinese new and old urban areas 査読有り

Yang, D; Dang, MY; Guo, J; Sun, LW; Zhang, RR; Han, F; Shi, F; Liu, Q; Tanikawa, H

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 27 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 84 - 95 2023年2月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Industrial Ecology

The urban built environment has accumulated massive amounts of resources, which is the main “hot spot” of construction materials and energy consumption in cities. To effectively monitor and manage resources use and waste disposal toward sustainability, this study intended to explore different metabolic paths of the urban built environment, as well as strategies for new and old urban areas separately with the help of material stock and flow analysis. Based on snapshots of 2003, 2010, and 2017 and combined with big data, a four-dimensional geographic information system buildings database of Lixia District in Jinan, China, was compiled for bottom-up stock modeling. Finally, the environmental impact assessment of the buildings’ demolition and disposal stage was carried out. The results showed that the building material stock was 142.31 Mt in 2017, with an increase of 69% from 2003. The reinforced concrete buildings increased rapidly from 2003 to 2017, especially in new urban areas, which has boosted demand for steel and cement by more than 150% during these 15 years. The material stock of the old urban area tends to be saturated, whereas the new urban area has experienced a rapid expansion with the material inflow four times as large as the material outflow. Potential recycling of waste concrete can reduce the generation of building demolition waste by 50%, save 0.15 km2 of land occupation, increase raw material substitution by nearly 10 times, and reduce CO2 emissions by 2.5 times.

DOI： 10.1111/jiec.13335

Estimation of the Lifespan of Imported Passenger Vehicles in Mongolia 査読有り Open Access

Mendjargal, T; Yamasue, E; Tanikawa, H

SUSTAINABILITY 14 巻 ( 21 ) 2022年11月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Sustainability (Switzerland)

In the last few decades, there has been an increase in second-hand imported vehicles in developing countries, including Mongolia. However, the extension of vehicle lifespans abroad promotes circular economy activities. In this study, we investigated the lifespan of second-hand imported passenger vehicles and their implication for the future sustainability of the transportation sector in Mongolia. The methodology used in this study comprised three stages. First, we conducted surveys to investigate the trends in second-hand vehicles in Mongolia. Next, the results from the survey on passenger vehicles were classified into three major categories based on their mode of operation, namely fuel, liquefied gas petroleum (gas), and the hybrid engine vehicle (HV) (of which the Toyota Prius is the most used vehicle in Mongolia). Finally, we estimated the average lifespan of vehicles using the Weibull distribution to measure before and after the import. The results show that the total average lifespans of all vehicles range between 17.3 and 20.2 years, respectively. The results highlight the different shape parameters of each vehicle category (fuel, gas, and HV), providing a better understanding of each vehicle’s lifespan and providing insights on the future management of second-hand imported vehicles, lifecycles, and recycling potentials for the successful development of sustainable transport policies in Mongolia.

DOI： 10.3390/su142114582

What matters most to the material intensity coefficient of buildings? Random forest-based evidence from China 査読有り

Zhang, RR; Guo, J; Yang, D; Shirakawa, H; Shi, F; Tanikawa, H

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 26 巻 ( 5 ) 頁： 1809 - 1823 2022年10月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Industrial Ecology

Material intensity coefficient (MIC) is vital for material stock accounting in the field of industrial ecology. However, the categorization of MIC varies across regions especially for buildings that diverge greatly along the history and space aspect, and acquisition of MIC data and building information have always been a challenge in related studies. In this study, the state-of-art ensemble model “Random Forest” was developed on Chinese buildings to identify the impact of four building attributes (building structure, construction year, use type, and region) on MIC, and these features’ importance was further assessed by considering variable correlations. The features’ importance and their individual effects on MIC were intuitively revealed by depicting the partial dependence plots. Finally, a set of hierarchical MIC values was estimated by integrating the order of four variables’ importance and a quick MIC calculator was provided. Results showed that building structure is the most influential attribute for MIC, followed by the construction year, use type, and region, successively. The RF-based MIC values allow researchers to apply it to material stock and flow analysis by choosing a specific building feature(s) in the MIC calculator, which is (are) available in building physical inventory data. This study provides a method that could help researchers locate key influencing variables and give insights into the comparability of MIC research across regions and play an important role in developing urban mining and circular economy strategies.

DOI： 10.1111/jiec.13332

Application of GIS and Machine Learning to Predict Flood Areas in Nigeria 査読有り Open Access

Ighile, EH; Shirakawa, H; Tanikawa, H

SUSTAINABILITY 14 巻 ( 9 ) 2022年5月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Sustainability (Switzerland)

Floods are one of the most devastating forces in nature. Several approaches for identifying flood-prone locations have been developed to reduce the overall harmful impacts on humans and the environment. However, due to the increased frequency of flooding and related disasters, coupled with the continuous changes in natural and social-economic conditions, it has become vital to predict areas with the highest probability of flooding to ensure effective measures to mitigate impending disasters. This study predicted the flood susceptible areas in Nigeria based on historical flood records from 1985~2020 and various conditioning factors. To evaluate the link between flood incidence and the fifteen (15) explanatory variables, which include climatic, topographic, land use and proximity information, the artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression (LR) models were trained and tested to develop a flood susceptibility map. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC) were used to evaluate both model accuracies. The results show that both techniques can model and predict flood-prone areas. However, the ANN model produced a higher performance and prediction rate than the LR model, 76.4% and 62.5%, respectively. In addition, both models highlighted that those areas with the highest susceptibility to flood are the low-lying regions in the southern extremities and around water areas. From the study, we can establish that machine learning techniques can effectively map and predict flood-prone areas and serve as a tool for developing flood mitigation policies and plans.

DOI： 10.3390/su14095039

From efficiency to equity: Changing patterns of China's regional transportation systems from an in-use steel stocks perspective 査読有り国際共著

Xu, ST; Wang, HX; Tian, X; Wang, T; Tanikawa, H

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 26 巻 ( 2 ) 頁： 548 - 561 2022年4月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Industrial Ecology

Transportation serves as a bridge for social production, distribution, exchange, and consumption and, thus, plays an important role in boosting the economy. In recent years, the rapid development of China's transportation system has driven a continuous accumulation of steel. In this study, we estimated the in-use steel stocks of 32 types of infrastructure and vehicles in three subsystems (railway, road, and subway) in 31 provinces of China from 1990 to 2019 based on a bottom-up approach. The results show that China's in-use steel stock in the transportation system has increased to 575 Mt in 2019 (34.4% for infrastructure, 65.6% for vehicle). Spatially, this increasing trend shows six diversified patterns among 31 provinces; steel stocks tend to decrease from the east to central and western inland areas. The Gini coefficient curve of the provinces’ stocks shows an inverted “U” shape over time, indicating a shrinking regional gap in recent years; this reflects a transition from efficiency to equity. We also measured the steel stock productivity (GDP per stock) in different regions and observed its diverse evolution types. The stock productivities in all regions climbed up initially, but have dropped in recent years, and the most obvious decrease is observed in western China. For eastern regions, vehicles have been the main growth point in recent years, while western regions are vigorously developing infrastructure. Our results help to illustrate the development status and spatial distribution of China's transportation system and could facilitate improved efficiency and the management of future challenges in China's transformation and development.

DOI： 10.1111/jiec.13203

機械学習モデルを用いた画像認識による建設資材ストック推計

第24 回（2021 年度）学術大会公開シンポジウム「循環経済（サーキュラーエコノミー）とSDGs」報告査読有り

松本亨, 中村崇, 工藤里恵, 林志浩, 松尾康志, 藤井実, 谷川寛樹

環境共生 38 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 119 - 124 2022年3月

GIS を用いた同一性判定に基づく建築物のLCA 環境負荷の評価査読有り

太田裕也, 吉田英立, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 51 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 117 - 117 2022年3月

名古屋市中心部における建設資材ストックと構造種割合の変遷査読有り

玉崎美結, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 51 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 83 - 83 2022年3月

都市構造物ストック推計手法の再検討査読有り

松代竜毅, 山下奈穂, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 51 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 82 - 82 2022年3月

衛星画像を用いた畳み込みニューラルネットワークによる建物延床面積推計に関する研究査読有り

齋藤隆成, LIU Zhiwei, 平井千津子, 芳賀智宏, 松井孝典, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 51 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 84 - 84 2022年3月

長尾征洋, 竹内詢喜, 玉崎美結, 森田大登, 北栄輔, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集Ｇ（環境） 78 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： II_19 - II_25 2022年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：公益社団法人土木学会

都市部における建設資材ストックを把握することは資源のリサイクルや適正処理のために重要である．正確なストック推定には建築物構造を推定する必要があるが，既往研究では近年増加しているカーテンウォールを備えた鉄骨造は分類されてこなかった．本研究では機械学習モデルを用い建物壁面画像からガラスと壁を判定し，各ピクセル数から壁面ガラス率を算出した．このガラス率67％を閾値として判別に用いるとカーテンウォールを備えた鉄骨造を適切に分類できることが分かった．名古屋駅周辺の262棟を対象に建物構造を分類しストック推計を行った結果，従来の分類方法と比較してコンクリートは18%減少，鋼材は325%増加することが示された．

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.78.6_ii_19

非金属鉱物系資源の物量投入産出表の整備及び循環指標群への適用査読有り

山下奈穂, 橋本征二, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境共生 38 巻 ( 2 ) 頁： 176 - 187 2021年11月

The urbanisation-environment conflict: Insights from material stock and productivity of transport infrastructure in Hanoi, Vietnam 査読有り国際共著 Open Access

Miatto, A; Dawson, D; Nguyen, PD; Kanaoka, KS; Tanikawa, H

JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 294 巻頁： 113007 2021年9月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Environmental Management

Developing regions experience rapid population growth and urbanisation, which require large quantities of materials for civil infrastructure. The production of construction materials, especially for urban transport systems, however, contributes to local and global environmental change. Political agendas may overlook the environmental implications of urban expansion, as economic growth tends to be prioritised. While elevating the standard of living is imperative, decision-making without careful environmental assessments can undermine the overall welfare of society. In this study, we evaluate the material demand and in-use stock productivity for the large-scale development plan for transport infrastructure in the city of Hanoi, Vietnam, from 2010 to 2030, combining geospatial and socioeconomic data with statistics on roads and railways. The results show that the total material stock could rise threefold from 66 Tg in 2010 to 269 Tg in 2030, which roughly translates to an addition of 30 Empire State Buildings per year by mass. The materials we account are required for construction exceed the availability of local sand and will need to be gathered farther away. Furthermore, the material stock productivity of the transport infrastructure appears to have been declining overall since 2010, and this trend may continue to 2030. These findings demonstrate the importance of informing urban planning with a comprehensive assessment of construction materials demand, supply capacity, and environmental impacts. Policy priorities for improving the in-use stock productivity are also recommended towards achieving a more efficient utilisation of natural resources.

DOI： 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113007

木造住宅と森林の木材需給を考慮した炭素ストックのシナリオ分析査読有り

山下奈穂, 加用千裕, 谷川寛樹

環境科学会誌 34 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 184 - 195 2021年7月

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：社団法人環境科学会

本研究では，木造住宅と森林の将来炭素ストックに関するシナリオ分析を行う。従来の炭素ストック定量化に関する研究では，住宅もしくは森林の一側面のみに着目したものが多く，日本の住宅と森林の炭素ストックを総合的に評価するものは少ない。特に，住宅は都市における炭素ストックと考えられ，長寿命化などの住宅政策が木材需給及び炭素ストックにもたらす影響を考慮する必要がある。そこで本研究では，木造住宅における木材需要が森林の木材供給に影響を与えるモデルを作成し，将来の木造住宅と森林の合計炭素ストック量に関するシナリオ分析を行う。将来の木材需要を変化させる要因として木造住宅の総延床面積と耐用年数を挙げ，供給のために伐採・再植林される森林の齢級構成を踏まえて全体の炭素ストックをシナリオ間で比較する。推計の結果，現状維持シナリオでは木造住宅と森林の合計で2050年に10.5億t-C，2100年に10.1億t-Cの炭素ストックが算出された。木材の需要増と長寿命化の促進によって木造住宅と森林の合計炭素ストックは最も大きくなり，現状維持のシナリオと比較すると2100年の炭素ストックが1.3億t-C増加することが明らかになった。また，2100年までの本推計期間において，木造住宅の長寿命化は炭素ストックを増加させるが，長寿命化による炭素ストックの増加は耐用年数が長くなるほどゆるやかになることが明らかになった。本研究の対象外である木材利用による間接的なエネルギー消費削減効果及び炭素排出削減効果の評価を今後の課題とした上で，本推計結果からは長寿命化がある程度達成された後には，木材の利用拡大を重点的に行うほうが炭素ストックの増加により効果的であると示唆された。

DOI： 10.11353/sesj.34.184

High-Resolution Maps of Material Stocks in Buildings and Infrastructures in Austria and Germany 査読有り国際共著 Open Access

Haberl, H; Wiedenhofer, D; Schug, F; Frantz, D; Virág, D; Plutzar, C; Gruhler, K; Lederer, J; Schiller, G; Fishman, T; Lanau, M; Gattringer, A; Kemper, T; Liu, G; Tanikawa, H; van der Linden, S; Hostert, P

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 55 巻 ( 5 ) 頁： 3368 - 3379 2021年3月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Environmental Science and Technology

The dynamics of societal material stocks such as buildings and infrastructures and their spatial patterns drive surging resource use and emissions. Two main types of data are currently used to map stocks, night-Time lights (NTL) from Earth-observing (EO) satellites and cadastral information. We present an alternative approach for broad-scale material stock mapping based on freely available highresolution EO imagery and OpenStreetMap data. Maps of built-up surface area, building height, and building types were derived from optical Sentinel-2 and radar Sentinel-1 satellite data to map patterns of material stocks for Austria and Germany. Using material intensity factors, we calculated the mass of different types of buildings and infrastructures, distinguishing eight types of materials, at 10 m spatial resolution. The total mass of buildings and infrastructures in 2018 amounted to 5 Gt in Austria and 38 Gt in Germany (AT: 540 t/cap, DE: 450 t/cap). Cross-checks with independent data sources at various scales suggested that the method may yield more complete results than other data sources but could not rule out possible overestimations. The method yields thematic differentiations not possible with NTL, avoids the use of costly cadastral data, and is suitable for mapping larger areas and tracing trends over time.

DOI： 10.1021/acs.est.0c05642

Urban development and sustainability challenges chronicled by a century of construction material flows and stocks in Tiexi, China 査読有り国際共著

Guo, J; Fishman, T; Wang, Y; Miatto, A; Wuyts, W; Zheng, LC; Wang, HM; Tanikawa, H

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 25 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 162 - 175 2021年2月

担当区分：最終著者記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Industrial Ecology

Construction materials are considerable forces of global environmental impacts, but their dynamics vis-à-vis urban development are poorly documented, in part because their long lifespans require elusive and sometimes nonexistent decade-long high-resolution data. This study analyzes the construction material flow and stock trends that shaped and were shaped by the development, decline, and renewal of the Tiexi district of Shenyang, a microcosm of China's urban transformations since the early 20th century. Chronicling building-by-building the material flows and stock accumulations involved in the buildup of this area, we shed light on the physical resource context of its socioeconomic history. We find that 42 million tonnes of construction materials were needed to develop the Tiexi district from 1910 to 2018, and 18 million tonnes of material outflows were generated by end-of-life building demolition. However, over 55% of inflows and 93% of outflows occurred since 2002 during a complete redevelopment of the district. Only small portions of end-of-life materials could have been reused or recycled because of temporal and typological mismatches of supply and demand and technical limitations. Our analysis reveals a dramatic decrease in median building lifetimes to as low as 6 years in the early 21st century. These findings contribute to the discussion of long-term environmental efficiency and sustainability of societal development through construction and reflect on the challenges of urban renewal processes not only in China but also in other developing and developed countries that lost (or may lose) their traditional economic base and restructure their urban forms. This article met the requirements for a Silver/Silver JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.

DOI： 10.1111/jiec.13054

物質ストックを考慮した資源生産性の要因分解の実証研究 ―住宅におけるケーススタディ―

山下奈穂, 郭静, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集Ｇ（環境） 77 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： II_23 - II_31 2021年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：公益社団法人土木学会

資源生産性は循環計画の大目標として掲げられている物質フロー指標であるが，本指標では物質フローを支える物質ストックの間接的な影響を評価できない点が課題であった．先行研究において，物質ストックを考慮した資源生産性の要因分解は行われているものの，物質ストックの価値はその用途や種類によって多様であることから，全ての物質ストックに一概に適用することは困難である．本研究では，提案型論文として日本の住宅を対象に要因分解式を試用し，住宅ストックの変化が資源生産性に及ぼす影響を明らかにした．分析の結果，2008年から2017年にかけてストックあたりのサービス発生効率の低下や空き家の増加による資源生産性への負の影響が明らかになった一方，住宅の長寿命化が資源生産性の向上に最も貢献していることが確認された．

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.77.6_ii_23

Life cycle assessment of cleaner production measures in monosodium glutamate production: A case study in China 査読有り国際共著

Yang, D; Jia, XX; Dang, MY; Han, F; Shi, F; Tanikawa, H; Klemes, JJ

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 270 巻頁： 122126 2020年10月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Cleaner Production

Monosodium glutamate (MSG) is one of the most commonly used seasonings in daily life and food industry. This study provides an initial Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of maize-based MSG production in 2018 to determine the life cycle environmental impact of MSG production in China. The environmental performance of several cleaner production measures in the MSG industry were also analysed and evaluated using LCA. Results show that when producing 1 t maize-based MSG without any cleaner production measures, the global warming potential, aquatic ecotoxicity, aquatic acidification, and aquatic eutrophication are 6.26 t CO2eq, 848 t TEG watereq, 83.5 kg SO2eq, and 5.04 kg PO4 P-limeq. Energy consumption, direct emission in the MSG production process, and maize production are identified as the most significant contributors to the life cycle environmental impact in MSG production. Scenario analysis of different production measures, namely cogeneration, co-production and the hybrid scenario integrating the two listed measures, showed that the hybrid scenario, which represents the mainstream cleaner production technology level of the MSG industry of China, is the optimal option for environmental impact reduction of MSG production. In the hybrid scenario, the global warming potential, aquatic ecotoxicity, aquatic acidification, and the aquatic eutrophication decreased 13.90%, 7.19%, 64.29%, and 80.00% compared with the non-cleaner production scenario. Two major directions to further improve the environmental performance of the MSG production are improving energy use efficiency (and/or using cleaner energy) and modifying the production process to maximise material use efficiency.

DOI： 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122126

日本全国の利用度別物質ストックの定量化 -住宅におけるケーススタディ- 査読有り

谷川寛樹, 山本大陸, 山下奈穂, 白川博章

土木学会論文集 G（環境） 76 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： 9 - 16 2020年10月

衛星夜間光情報に基づく深層学習による建築物の延べ床面積推計に関する研究査読有り

齋藤隆成、平井千津子、芳賀智宏、松井孝典、白川博章、谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集 G（環境） 76 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： 1 - 7 2020年10月

A spatiotemporal urban metabolism model for the Canberra suburb of Braddon in Australia 査読有り国際共著

Schandl, H; Marcos-Martinez, R; Baynes, T; Yu, ZF; Miatto, A; Tanikawa, H

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 265 巻頁： 121770 2020年8月

担当区分：最終著者記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Cleaner Production

Decision makers, planners and actors in cities design policies, plan, invest money and build infrastructure, and consumers buy houses and use transport infrastructure without sound information about the environmental consequences of many of those decisions. Decisions, however, that have a lasting impact on sustainable development outcomes. In this study, we employ novel analytical techniques to align the spatial characteristics of the built urban environment with information for building materials and GHG embodiment to inform planning and investment decisions at the district, suburb and city scale. We represent a three-dimensional model of a suburb established from remotely sensed data and use algorithms to identify building types and align those with their typical material composition. We analyse the urban development of the modelled suburb in three historical time steps – 1955, 1981 and 2015 – and establish the consequence of urban planning decisions on material use and GHG embodiment. We test the new methodology for its applicability for a whole of city analysis and discuss the benefit for environmentally sustainable urban planning and design.

DOI： 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121770

Urban buildings material intensity in China from 1949 to 2015 招待有り査読有り国際共著

Yang, D; Guo, J; Sun, LW; Shi, F; Liu, JR; Tanikawa, H

RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 159 巻頁： 104824 2020年8月

担当区分：最終著者記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Resources, Conservation and Recycling

The building material intensity(MI) is one of the most common used and important indicators in buildings metabolism analysis including building material stock analysis, virgin materials extraction demand and construction & demolition (C&D) waste forecasting, as well as its recycling potential. However, in China developing with rapid urbanization and large-scale city construction, a complete building MI database is not documented well although some studies have intended to figure it out. The existing research mainly focused on the building MI for specific cities or construction material. In this study, we complied 813 buildings with different construction periods from 1949 to 2015, structures, functional applications, and their associated background information from 30 Chinese provinces by an extensive survey as the basic MI database for urban buildings. Based on this, material intensity of Chinese urban buildings for 10 kinds of construction materials and 14 categories of buildings is averaged, and its difference between categories was further described. The results indicate that the building MI exhibits specific trends related to the structural, function application, and building construction period. After comparing the MI database to the previous studies, the database established in this research is considered to have an improvement in terms of the building construction period, geographic distribution, application, structure and material categories. It is not only spanning all different combinations, but also acceptable and credible through comparison.

DOI： 10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.104824

CO2 emissions from the Chinese cement sector: Analysis from both the supply and demand sides 査読有り国際共著

Du, T; Wang, J; Wang, HM; Tian, X; Yue, Q; Tanikawa, H

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 24 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 923 - 934 2020年8月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Industrial Ecology

China is the largest producer and consumer of cement worldwide, and cement production entails the release of substantial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. As the cement sector is a crucial sector of the Chinese economy, understanding the role of supply- and demand-side factors may help accelerate efforts to mitigate CO2 emissions. However, few studies have analyzed the critical factors affecting CO2 emissions in the sector based on a combined supply- and demand-side perspective. In this study, we developed an integrated framework that included eleven indicators covering both the supply and demand sides. Results revealed that improving cement production technology cannot offset CO2 emissions from the growth in demand for cement. Improving technology on the supply side would considerably reduce CO2 emissions from Chinese cement production; nevertheless, the combination of rapid urbanization, GDP growth, and an ultra-high fixed capital formation ratio on the demand side increased CO2 emissions nearly 25-fold from 1990 to 2015. Notably, some demand-side factors also had an effect that reduced CO2 emissions. The in-use stock per unit of fixed capital formation and output per in-use stock reduced CO2 emissions by 332 million metric tons, which is comparable to the contribution of technological progress. Based on these results, we examine why these demand-side factors substantially influence CO2 emissions in the Chinese cement sector, and we provide recommendations for policy-makers on carbon-reduction measures in this CO2-intensive sector.

DOI： 10.1111/jiec.12986

Understanding and Managing Vacant Houses in Support of a Material Stock-Type Society-The Case of Kitakyushu, Japan 招待有り査読有り国際共著 Open Access

Wuyts, W; Sedlitzky, R; Morita, M; Tanikawa, H

SUSTAINABILITY 12 巻 ( 13 ) 頁： 5653 2020年7月

担当区分：最終著者記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Sustainability (Switzerland)

From a sustainable material management perspective, vacant houses represent material stock and still have potential in the circular economy. This article addresses two aspects of understanding and managing vacant houses: the difficulty of understanding their spatial and temporal patterns and the management of the social costs behind the phenomenon of vacant houses. These aspects are approached by combining a 4D GIS analysis with expert interviews and additional qualitative tools to assess the spatial and temporal dimension of vacant houses. Furthermore, this manuscript presents a tool to estimate the obsolete dwelling material stock distribution within a city. The case of the city of Kitakyushu demonstrates the relationship that exists between the historical trajectories of housing norms and standards, such as comfort, cleanliness, safety, and convenience, and the dynamics of the built material stock and demography for three selected neighbourhoods. The results show that the more locked-in a district is in terms of "obsolete norms and codes", the more likely it is that the obsolete stock is dead, and consequently, urban mining should be considered. The article concludes that a revisiting of the norms and standards of convenience and other domains is one of the prerequisites of the transition toward a circular built environment and the prevention of obsolete stock accumulation.

DOI： 10.3390/su12135363

Challenges towards carbon dioxide emissions peak under in-depth socioeconomic transition in China: Insights from Shanghai 査読有り国際共著

Liu, SW; Tian, X; Xiong, YL; Zhang, Y; Tanikawa, H

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 247 巻頁： 119083 2020年2月

担当区分：最終著者記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Cleaner Production

Chinese government committed to peak its CO2 emissions before 2030, while managing its in-depth socioeconomic transition to a slower but more balanced growth. Features of such a transition include rising high-tech manufacturing and services as well as fast-growing household consumption, which both have implications for China's CO2 emissions peak. In this study, we focus on analyzing the case of Shanghai, a leading city in China, for its experience of realizing CO2 emission stagnation during in-depth socioeconomic transition process. We find that emerging high-tech manufacturing and services in Shanghai, although to some extent having replaced carbon-intensive heavy industries, have generated additional CO2 emissions of respectively 364.7 Mt and 308.6 Mt, mainly through their supply chains during the 2007–2012 time period. We also find that soaring urban household consumption induced huge CO2 emissions, including 251.0 Mt embodied emissions in producing goods and services for urban residents, and additional CO2 emissions associated with massive investment in urban infrastructure and buildings from 2007 to 2012. The challenges we identified from Shanghai's real case provide useful insights for China to peak its CO2 emissions under its in-depth socioeconomic transition.

DOI： 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119083

Lost Material Stock in Buildings due to Sea Level Rise from Global Warming: The Case of Fiji Islands 査読有り国際共著 Open Access

Merschroth, S; Miatto, A; Weyand, S; Tanikawa, H; Schebek, L

SUSTAINABILITY 12 巻 ( 3 ) 2020年2月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Sustainability (Switzerland)

This study developed a methodology to estimate the amount of construction material in coastal buildings which are lost due to climate change-induced sea level rise. The Republic of Fiji was chosen as a case study; sea level rise is based on predictions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the years 2050 and 2100. This study combines the concept of a geographic information system based digital inundation analysis with the concept of a material stock analysis. The findings show that about 4.5% of all existing buildings on Fiji will be inundated by 2050 because of an expected global sea level rise of 0.22 m (scenario 1) and 6.2% by 2100 for a sea level rise of 0.63 m (scenario 2). The number of buildings inundated by 2050 is equivalent to 40% of the average number of new constructed buildings in Fiji Islands in a single year. Overall, the amount of materials present in buildings which will be inundated by 2050 is 900,000 metric tons (815,650 metric tons of concrete, 52,100 metric tons of timber, and 31,680 metric tons of steel). By 2100, this amount is expected to grow to 1,151,000 metric tons (1,130,160 metric tons of concrete, 69,760 metric tons of timber, and 51,320 metric tons of steel). The results shall contribute in enhancing urban planning, climate change adaptation strategies, and the estimation of future demolition flows in small island developing states.

DOI： 10.3390/su12030834

南海トラフ巨大地震における災害廃棄物量の推計-既存研究との比較- 査読有り

野末浩佑, 矢澤大志, 奥岡佳次郎, 谷川寛樹, 橋本征二

廃棄物資源循環学会研究発表会講演集 31 巻 ( 0 ) 頁： 107 2020年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：一般社団法人廃棄物資源循環学会

南海トラフ巨大地震においては、東日本大震災以上の災害廃棄物が発生すると推計されている。東日本大震災の経験からも、災害廃棄物はできる限りリサイクルすることが肝要であるが、想定される津波によって、海水を吸収して塩分を多く含有する廃棄物も多く発生することになる。塩分を含有した災害廃棄物を処理・リサイクルするには、廃棄物に付着した塩分・泥土を除去する作業が必要になることから、津波が原因となって発生する廃棄物と地震動のみが原因となって発生する廃棄物を分けて推計しておくことも有益と考えられる。本研究では、南海トラフ巨大地震において津波の影響を受ける地域の1つである静岡県を対象に、地震動のみによる災害廃棄物、津波の影響を受けた災害廃棄物の発生量を分けて推計を行った。また、推計方法が少しずつ異なっている環境省及び中央防災会議の推計方法・推計結果の違いについても考察を行った。

DOI： 10.14912/jsmcwm.31.0_107

日本全国の利用度別物質ストックの定量化 ―住宅におけるケーススタディ―

谷川寛樹, 山本大陸, 山下奈穂, 白川博章

土木学会論文集Ｇ（環境） 76 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： II_9 - II_16 2020年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：公益社団法人土木学会

循環型社会の形成に向け，ストック型社会の重要性が高まっている．物質ストックはフローと表裏一体の存在であり，社会に価値を提供する一方，過剰な資源投入や将来廃棄量の増加にも影響する．社会に蓄積・滞留する物質ストックを適切に管理し，質の高い物質ストックを将来世代に残すには，利用度を考慮した物質ストックの把握が必要である．本研究では，使用年数モデル法を用いて日本全国の住宅ストック量を推計し，利用度区分に従い退蔵量・現役量を明らかにした．2018年の住宅ストック量は51.9億トンであり，構造種別では木造 22.4億トン，SRC造 3.9億トン，RC造 17.6億トン，S造 7.6億トンであった．また，住宅土地統計調査における空き家率によって空き家のストック量を推計した結果，退蔵量にあたる「その他の住宅」は3.0億トン存在し，住宅数の増加に伴い今後も増加することが予想された．

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.76.6_ii_9

衛星夜間光情報に基づく深層学習による建築物の延床面積推計に関する研究

齋藤隆成, 平井千津子, 芳賀智宏, 松井孝典, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集Ｇ（環境） 76 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： II_1 - II_7 2020年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：公益社団法人土木学会

循環型社会の構築に向け，資源の蓄積・挙動を把握するための世界規模でのマテリアルストック・フロー分析が重要である．統計データの制約問題に対し，全球にて低コストで入手可能な衛星画像データの有効性が示唆される．近年，衛星画像解析の手法として，畳み込みニューラルネットワーク（CNN）が注目されている．本研究では，CNNを用いて夜間画像から建物延床面積を推計するモデル開発を行うことを目的とした先行的研究を行った．日本の三大都市圏（東京都市圏，大阪都市圏，名古屋都市圏）を対象範囲として，学習地域と推計地域を交代させ，延床面積を推計した．さらに，推計精度を検証した．大阪学習-名古屋推計では，名古屋都市圏全域の建物延床面積は450 million m2と判明した．

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.76.6_ii_1

Extending or ending the life of residential buildings in Japan: A social circular economy approach to the problem of short-lived constructions 査読有り国際共著

Wuyts, W; Miatto, A; Sedlitzky, R; Tanikawa, H

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 231 巻頁： 660 - 670 2019年9月

担当区分：最終著者記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Cleaner Production

The construction of residential buildings requires the extraction and production of large amounts of materials, with obvious consequences on the natural environment. Buildings are capital-intensive, requiring considerable physical, economic, and societal investments. In order to amortize their environmental impact, buildings should be used for a period of time that maximises their utility. However, the average lifespan of a residential building in Japan is of only 25 years, a time that has been shortening since the World War II. Numerous Japanese houses are used for less than a generation before being demolished or abandoned, posing a risk for public health, decorum, and safety. This study presents a holistic view of the pressing societal and environmental concerns related to short-lived buildings, which can be used to identify sustainable strategies for the realization of a circular built environment in Japan. This study used a qualitative approach (i.e., media content analysis, field visits to local communities and citizens, expert interviews, and statistical validation) to identify the factors and path dependencies that have led to a low average building lifespan during the second half of the 20th century; moreover, the study investigated the stakeholders in favour of these short lifespans, their own motivations, and the rationale behind recent countermeasures initiated at the local to governmental levels. Numerous stakeholders were motivated by the economic costs or alternative post-materialist values, attitudes and aspirations, emotional attachment, or by a combination of these factors. Their decisions resulted from reflections and personal experiences of societal issues related to short-lived constructions in Japan. The article concludes that all residential buildings should be serving society and presents a framework for the identification of delayed, justified, or premature obsolescence. This framework can be used to decide whether the life of a residential building should be extended or ended.

DOI： 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.258

Transferability of Material Composition Indicators for Residential Buildings: A Conceptual Approach Based on a German-Japanese Comparison 査読有り

Schiller, G; Miatto, A; Gruhler, K; Ortlepp, R; Deilmann, C; Tanikawa, H

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 23 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 796 - 807 2019年8月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Industrial Ecology

Most anthropogenic material stocks and flows are associated with the building sector. Several recent studies have developed material composition indicators (MCIs) suitable for calculating material stocks and flows of the building sector using bottom-up approaches, which hold great potential to provide information to support resource efficiency policies. A major limitation is the lack of country-specific MCIs. This study aims to introduce a concept for a better transferability of MCI across different contexts by proposing requirements for defining MCIs and to discuss options and limits of the transferability. We take existing MCIs for residential buildings in Germany and Japan as case studies and make them comparable by applying harmonization methods. Based on that, similarities and differences are systematically identified and discussed, considering their socioeconomic, cultural, technical, and environmental factors. Our results indicate significant limitations to the transferability of MCIs for detached houses, while bigger apartment complexes show greater homogeneity despite the very different environments in which they are constructed. This indicates that while it is possible to assume foreign MCIs as plausible for large constructions, local coefficients need to be estimated for smaller single-family homes.

DOI： 10.1111/jiec.12817

Spatially explicit material stock analysis of buildings in Eastern China metropoles 査読有り国際共著

Guo, J; Miatto, A; Shi, F; Tanikawa, H

RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 146 巻頁： 45 - 54 2019年7月

担当区分：最終著者記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Resources, Conservation and Recycling

China is experiencing a period of rapid urbanization and fervent construction activities, which are responsible for the accumulation of large amount of material stocks (MS). Fundamental in every society, buildings not only shape material flows before and during construction, but also during maintenance and demolition, inducing the extraction of resources and the production of construction waste. It is thus imperative to understand the amount, composition, and location of current building MS as a first step to design appropriate management strategies for an environmentally sustainable society. This research uses the latest GIS dataset of buildings in 14 representative Eastern China metropoles to quantify the current status of building MS by employing a bottom-up method. The selection of the study areas relies on the law of the primate city, which permits to quickly target the most important urban areas of a region. We review and discuss existing material intensity (MI) coefficients for Chinese buildings, and produce a new set of MIs manipulating those available in the literature. We then calculate the total MS, MS density, and per capita MS for each city. Results find that in 14 cities 7.9 Gt of building materials are currently stored in a total area of 3790 km2, resulting on an average density of 2.1 Mt/km2. The per capita building MS results being 283 t/cap, and this value correlates with a growth of the per capita GDP. We conclude the research with a hotspot analysis of the spatial distribution of the MS, identifying the MS clusters.

DOI： 10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.03.031

Estimating the Material Stock of Roads: The Vietnamese Case Study 査読有り国際共著

Nguyen, TC; Fishman, T; Miatto, A; Tanikawa, H

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 23 巻 ( 3 ) 頁： 663 - 673 2019年6月

担当区分：最終著者記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Industrial Ecology

This study is a pioneering effort to quantify the materials stocked in the road network of a developing country, Vietnam, and analyze its relationships to the country's recent economic development. National road networks function as capital and infrastructure investments that are necessary catalysts for countries’ development, while requiring the extraction of vast amounts of construction materials for expansion and maintenance causing environmental impacts. However, there has so far been little research on the subject, especially in developing countries. We compile material stock and flow accounts for Vietnam's roads from 2003 to 2013 on the national and provincial levels, finding that approximately 40% of the domestic consumption of construction materials is for expanding and maintaining the road network, and the materials stocked in the road network doubled from 1,321 million metric tons in 2003 to 2,660 million metric tons in 2012. Material stock growth rates closely resembled those of gross domestic product (GDP) in this period, suggesting a codependency of physical infrastructure development and economic development. On the provincial level, our results show local disparities in the stock and its capacity to support the transportation of passengers and freight, especially considering the surging growth of vehicles in urban centers. By showcasing the challenges of conducting a material flow and stock analysis in a developing country, this study not only sheds light on Vietnam's transportation material stock and its policy implications, but also serves as a case study for further work in similar countries.

DOI： 10.1111/jiec.12773

Estimation of mining and landfilling activities with associated overburden through satellite data: Germany 2000-2010 招待有り査読有り国際共著 Open Access

Yoshida K., Okuoka K., Miatto A., Schebek L., Tanikawa H.

Resources 8 巻 ( 3 ) 頁： 126 2019年5月

担当区分：最終著者記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Resources

Despite ever-increasing material extraction on the global scale, very few studies have focused on the relationship between mining activities, overburden, and landfilling. This is mainly due to the lack of statistical data. Yet, large mining activities cause environmental strain to the natural environment, and are often cause of irreversible alterations to the natural landscape. To circumvent this problem, we develop a methodology that employs the digital elevation model and land cover to detect and analyze mining and landfilling site over time. We test our methodology with the case of Germany for the years 2000-2010. We then confront our results with statistically available data, to verify whether this methodology can be applied to other countries. Results from the analysis of satellite data give 15.3 Pg of extracted materials and 7.8 Pg of landfilled materials, while statistics report 29.4 Pg and 1.8 Pg, respectively. This large difference was likely due to the different frequency of recording, where satellite data was updated after 10 years, while statistics were reported yearly. The analysis of the anthropogenic disturbance with spatial information can effectively contribute to observe, analyze, and quantify mining activities, overburden, and landfills, and can thus provide policy makers with useful and practical information regarding resource usage and waste management.

DOI： 10.3390/resources8030126

Estimating the Material Stock of Roads: The Vietnamese Case Study 査読有り国際共著

Journal of Industrial Ecology 23 巻 ( 3 ) 頁： 663 - 673 2019年5月

Estimation of Mining and Landfilling Activities with Associated Overburden through Satellite Data: Germany 2000–2010 招待有り査読有り国際共著

Keisuke Yoshida, Keijiro Okuoka, Alessio Miatto, Liselotte Schebek, Hiroki Tanikawa

Resources 8 巻 ( 3 ) 頁： 126 2019年5月

Spatially explicit material stock analysis of buildings in Eastern China metropoles 査読有り国際共著

Jing Guo, Alessio Miatto, Feng Shi, Hiroki Tanikawa

Resources, Conservation and Recycling 146 巻頁： 45 - 54 2019年3月

A spatial analysis of material stock accumulation and demolition waste potential of buildings: A case study of Padua 査読有り

Miatto, A; Schandl, H; Forlin, L; Ronzani, F; Borin, P; Giordano, A; Tanikawa, H

RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 142 巻頁： 245 - 256 2019年3月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Resources, Conservation and Recycling

This research employed a spatially explicit analysis to calculate the total material stock and demolition waste flows for Padua, a medium sized Italian city, for the period 1902–2007. The analysis of maps and aerial photographs allowed for the calculation of building lifespan, which grew until the second half of the twentieth century, but had a sharp decline during the 1990’s caused by a wave of urban renewal triggered by policies to improve the energy efficiency and remove asbestos from buildings. A detailed investigation of historical construction technologies allowed for the creation of a material inventory database by building typology and construction period, which was then used to calculate the total stock of buildings of Padua. Our results show that the historical city centre remained practically unaltered over the past century, and that most of the expansion happened at the city periphery. From 1902 to 2007 the stock of building materials grew from 134 to 209 tonnes per capita, and is expected to further increase to 222 tonnes per capita by 2030. We also implemented a model to estimate the waste potential from demolition activities using the total stock and expected lifespan as input parameters. We estimate that waste flows accounted for 985 kg per capita in 2007 and are expected to raise to 1.9 tonnes per capita in 2030. These results are informative for urban planners, especially those involved in fast urbanising regions (e.g. China, India), who can use these results as a benchmark of future stocks and waste flows.

DOI： 10.1016/j.resconrec.2018.12.011

同一性判定システムを用いた東京都市圏における建設資材の偏在性及び動態に関する研究査読有り

朝隈友哉, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

廃棄物資源循環学会研究発表会講演集 30 巻 ( 0 ) 頁： 59 2019年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：一般社団法人廃棄物資源循環学会

循環型社会の形成に向け、都市における詳細な物質ストック分布を時系列で広範囲に渡って把握することが求められる。本研究では、地理情報システム(GIS)による建築物を対象とした年代間の同一性判定を用いることで、東京都市圏における建設資材の偏在性及び動態に関する推計を行なった。結果として、東京都市圏全体で2003年から2014年にかけて建設資材蓄積量は1954百万トンから2363百万トンとなり1.21倍増加した。各都道府県で増加率は1.19から1.24であり、建設資材蓄積量と成長率が比例しないことが示された。また、東京都では2009年から2014年にかけて投入量が108百万トン、廃棄量が62.6百万トンであり、建設資材投入量が建設資材廃棄量を上回った。さらに、ストックとフローの関係より、各都市で資材蓄積が行われている一方で、物質代謝の速度が減少していることが明らかとなった。

DOI： 10.14912/jsmcwm.30.0_59

南海トラフ巨大地震における市町村別の仮置場の検討：大阪府、兵庫県、岡山県の事例研究査読有り

石川湧裕, 立尾浩一, 奥岡桂次郎, 橋本征二, 谷川寛樹

廃棄物資源循環学会研究発表会講演集 30 巻 ( 0 ) 頁： 141 2019年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：一般社団法人廃棄物資源循環学会

2011年3月に発生した東日本大震災においては、膨大な災害廃棄物の問題が浮き彫りとなったが、近年発生すると予想されている南海トラフ巨大地震の災害廃棄物量は、最大で東日本大震災の約11倍と推計されている。災害廃棄物の迅速な処理に必要不可欠なのが、災害廃棄物を一時的に保管する仮置場の確保である。東日本大震災においても、また、2016年4月に発生した熊本地震においても、仮置場の不足が大きな課題となった。本研究では、大阪府、兵庫県、岡山県を対象に、南海トラフ巨大地震により発生する災害廃棄物量を市区町村ごとに推計し、各市区町村における仮置場の利用可能面積と必要面積の比較検討を行った。本要旨では、大阪府についての結果を報告する。

DOI： 10.14912/jsmcwm.30.0_141

Anthropogenic Disturbance by Domestic Extraction of Gold Mining in Mongolia

ENKHMUNKH Ganbold, YAMASUE Eiji, MIATTO Alessio, TANIKAWA Hiroki

土木学会論文集Ｇ（環境） 75 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： II_285 - II_290 2019年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：公益社団法人土木学会

Mining, husbandry, and construction activities are consuming a large amount of natural resources. These processes have multiple impacts on the environment, including the excavation of large areas. This research focuses on gold mining in Mongolia, and aims (1) to identify the gold mining activities and allocated them on a map, and (2) to quantify the material flows related to gold mining. Statistical datasets, sourced by the Mineral Resources of Mongolia and the National Statistical Office of Mongolia, were used to account for domestic extraction. Two methods were used for mapping mining activities: firstly, the degraded areas were identified through a geographic information system (GIS) software; secondly, the domestic extraction of gold mining was estimated by the standardized method of material flow accounting. Results indicate the Mongolian gold mining activities exploited 9,812 ha of land across 18 different provinces. In addition, 745,300 m3 of soil was excavated to produce 132 tons of gold in 2007-2017. Particularly, during this period 100.8 tonnes of green gold was extracted which means the gold extraction that does not include any chemical process and just washing soil to obtain gold. "Green Gold" is recognized as less environmental impact by the European market. This study will be beneficial to the Mongolian government to better understand the environmental burden related to the gold mining activities in the country.

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.75.6_ii_285

4d-GISによる最尤法を用いた建設副産物発生量の将来推計 -名古屋市中心部のケーススタディ- 査読有り

正木晃平, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

廃棄物資源循環学会研究発表会講演集 30 巻 ( 0 ) 頁： 61 2019年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：一般社団法人廃棄物資源循環学会

高度経済成長期に蓄積された構造物が老朽化し滞留年数を迎えることによって、今後、建設系副産物の排出量が増大すると予想され、適切に処理するために将来における建設廃棄物排出量の予測が必要となる。本研究では、3次元のGIS（地理情報システム）データに時系列を加えた4d-GISを用いて、奥岡らによる最尤推定法及びモンテカルロシュミレーションにより、各建築物について解体判定を行うことで、将来における建築物副産物の発生量を推計した。対象地域は名古屋市中心部である。詳細地域における地理的条件・社会的条件を考慮した建設副産物発生量の予測を可能とした。結果として、建設副産物発生量は2015-2019年に207.3千トン、2030-2034年に229.5千トンと推計され、緩やかな増加傾向にあった。構造別にみると、木造及び鉄骨造は減少傾向にあり、RC造（鉄筋コンクリート造）は増加傾向にあった。

DOI： 10.14912/jsmcwm.30.0_61

廃棄物産業連関表及び森林・都市動態モデルによる木質資源量の評価査読有り

山下奈穂, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

廃棄物資源循環学会研究発表会講演集 30 巻 ( 0 ) 頁： 75 2019年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：一般社団法人廃棄物資源循環学会

間伐材や枝葉・根珠は、低位利用材として潜在需要を有するが、経済統計等の従来の分析によって捉えることが困難である。このような隠れたフローを計測し、効率的な活用システムを構築することは政策的に重要である。本研究では対象地域を日本全国として木質資源量の推計を行った。廃棄物産業連関分析には2000年版の廃棄物産業連関表を応用し、森林・都市動態モデル(Forest and Urban Dynamic Model, FUDM)を用いた推計には林業センサス(2000)の齢級別森林面積をもとに住宅用木材需給の将来変化を踏まえながら未利用資源量の推計を行った。未利用残材量及び炭素蓄積量について、廃棄物産業連関分析では事業系の草・木及びその他の資源量が2,100トン/百万円，炭素蓄積量が2億トン、森林・都市動態モデルでは6億トンの炭素蓄積量が推定され、比較すると4億トン以上の炭素蓄積量の差異が確認された。

DOI： 10.14912/jsmcwm.30.0_75

Sustainability indicators from resource flow trends in the Philippines 査読有り

Martinico-Perez, MFG; Schandl, H; Tanikawa, H

RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 138 巻頁： 74 - 86 2018年11月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Resources, Conservation and Recycling

The topics of resource efficiency, pollution reduction and waste minimization have become important global policy goals and have gained prominence in developing countries in the context of the new Sustainable Development Goals. These pose challenges to the policy community in the formulation of plausible and ambitious targets for resource use, greenhouse gas emissions and waste. To bridge this gap, we utilize the material flow indicators derived from standard MFA methodology to show trends in material use, waste and emissions in the Philippines. We find that direct material inputs in the Philippines grew at 2.4% yearly, from 293 million tonnes in 1980 to 661 million tonnes in 2014. Domestic processed output, or materials released to environment has tripled from 96 million tonnes in 1980 to 260 million tonnes in 2014, with 89% as emission to air. The environmental Kuznets curve shows that the growing economy entails greater pressure to the environment. Net additions to stock grew slower than waste and emissions which is testament of a lack of infrastructure investment in the Philippines. Such a comprehensive material flow account responds to the information requirements of a modern environmental policy stance that looks at economy and environment simultaneously and has not previously been available. These findings call for policies to increase resource efficiency and improvement on recycling system, strict implementation of policies related to solid wastes management, mitigating air emission, and wastewater. The new dataset also shows slow progress in achieving SDG targets 8.4, 12.2 and 12.5.

DOI： 10.1016/j.resconrec.2018.07.003

Stagnating CO2 emissions with in-depth socioeconomic transition in Beijing 査読有り

Wang, J; Xiong, YL; Tian, X; Liu, SW; Li, JS; Tanikawa, H

APPLIED ENERGY 228 巻頁： 1714 - 1725 2018年10月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Applied Energy

Curbing the growth of global CO2 emissions and limiting global average temperature rise to well below 2 °C are important targets for the international society after the Paris Climate Change Conference. Given the continuously increasing emission trends in most of the developing world, peaking emissions as soon as possible during the developing and transition process is a key challenge in realizing the target globally. In this study, we established a comprehensive analysis framework for peaking stage analysis, based on three scopes accounting, and estimating the impact of in-depth socioeconomic transitions on peaking stages. We further applied it to Beijing, which reversed its growth trend in CO2 emissions and acted as a pioneer in fulfilling the peaking target of emissions during in-depth socioeconomic transition period, in recent years. We found that the turning point for production-based CO2 emissions in Beijing appeared around 2007, which stopped growing and has since been fluctuating around 100 Mt. During the in-depth industrialization process, accelerating the elimination of energy and carbon intensive industries, such as resource-related heavy manufacturing, promoting the transition from industries to services, and upgrading the internal structure of industries, were key factors determining the CO2 emissions peak in Beijing. Meanwhile, the optimization of the internal production structure of consumer and producer services also led to a declining trend of services with the in-depth industrial transition. During the in-depth urbanization process, the reduced CO2 intensity and optimized production structure of shelter and household equipment, and upgraded services dominated consumption structure were the main reasons for urban household CO2 mitigation. Clarifying the mechanism of the CO2 emissions peak during the in-depth socioeconomic transition period in Beijing will help us understand the challenges of peak better and provide valuable references for other countries and regions in the developing world that are facing peaking emissions challenges in the processes of their development.

DOI： 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.07.029

Proliferation of district heating using local energy resources through strategic building-stock management: A case study in Fukushima, Japan 査読有り

Dou, Y; Okuoka, K; Fujii, M; Tanikawa, H; Fujita, T; Togawa, T; Dong, L

FRONTIERS IN ENERGY 12 巻 ( 3 ) 頁： 411 - 425 2018年9月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Frontiers in Energy

District heating systems using cogeneration technology and renewable resources are considered as an effective approach to resources conservation and reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, widespread aging and depopulation problems, as well as the popularization of energy-saving technologies in buildings, are estimated to greatly decrease energy consumption, leading to inefficiency in district heating and barriers to technology proliferation. From a long-term perspective, land use changes, especially the progression of compact city plans, have the potential to offset the decrement in energy consumption that maintains the efficiency of district heating systems. An integrated model is developed in this paper based on building cohort analysis to evaluate the economic feasibility and environmental impact of introducing district heating systems to a long-term compact city plan. As applied to a case in the Soma Region of Fukushima, Japan, potential migration from the suburbs to the central station districts is simulated, where district heating based on gas-fired cogeneration is expected to be introduced. The results indicate that guided migration to produce concentrated centers of population can substantially increase the heat demand density, which supports a wider application of district heating systems and better low-carbon performance. These results are further discussed in relation to technology innovation and related policies. It is concluded that policies related to urban land use planning and energy management should be integrated and quantitatively evaluated over the long-term with the aim of supporting urban low-carbon sustainable development.

DOI： 10.1007/s11708-018-0577-8

Global Material Flows and Resource Productivity: Forty Years of Evidence 査読有り

Schandl, H; Fischer-Kowalski, M; West, J; Giljum, S; Dittrich, M; Eisenmenger, N; Geschke, A; Lieber, M; Wieland, H; Schaffartzik, A; Krausmann, F; Gierlinger, S; Hosking, K; Lenzen, M; Tanikawa, H; Miatto, A; Fishman, T

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 22 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 827 - 838 2018年8月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Industrial Ecology

The international industrial ecology (IE) research community and United Nations (UN) Environment have, for the first time, agreed on an authoritative and comprehensive data set for global material extraction and trade covering 40 years of global economic activity and natural resource use. This new data set is becoming the standard information source for decision making at the UN in the context of the post-2015 development agenda, which acknowledges the strong links between sustainable natural resource management, economic prosperity, and human well-being. Only if economic growth and human development can become substantially decoupled from accelerating material use, waste, and emissions can the tensions inherent in the Sustainable Development Goals be resolved and inclusive human development be achieved. In this paper, we summarize the key findings of the assessment study to make the IE research community aware of this new global research resource. The global results show a massive increase in materials extraction from 22 billion tonnes (Bt) in 1970 to 70 Bt in 2010, and an acceleration in material extraction since 2000. This acceleration has occurred at a time when global population growth has slowed and global economic growth has stalled. The global surge in material extraction has been driven by growing wealth and consumption and accelerating trade. A material footprint perspective shows that demand for materials has grown even in the wealthiest parts of the world. Low-income countries have benefited least from growing global resource availability and have continued to deliver primary materials to high-income countries while experiencing few improvements in their domestic material living standards. Material efficiency, the amount of primary materials required per unit of economic activity, has declined since around 2000 because of a shift of global production from very material-efficient economies to less-efficient ones. This global trend of recoupling economic activity with material use, driven by industrialization and urbanization in the global South, most notably Asia, has negative impacts on a suite of environmental and social issues, including natural resource depletion, climate change, loss of biodiversity, and uneven economic development. This research is a good example of the IE research community providing information for evidence-based policy making on the global stage and testament to the growing importance of IE research in achieving global sustainable development.

DOI： 10.1111/jiec.12626

The Socio-Economic Metabolism of an Emerging Economy: Monitoring Progress of Decoupling of Economic Growth and Environmental Pressures in the Philippines 査読有り

Martinico-Perez, MFG; Schandl, H; Fishman, T; Tanikawa, H

ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS 147 巻頁： 155 - 166 2018年5月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Ecological Economics

In many Asian developing countries, policy makers face tension between the needs of economic growth, human development and environmental sustainability. In a similar vein, the new global agreement on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) calls for the harmonization of economic and environmental goals. To shed light on the relationship between the economy and natural resources, our research investigates the case of the Philippines, employing a material flow accounting approach based on national statistical sources. We analyze domestic extraction, trade of materials and economic development from 1980 to 2014. We also explore differences between territorial (production) and footprint (consumption) accounts. We find that the Philippine economy managed to grow while reducing material intensity because of an increasing share of services sector activities. From net resource trade dependence in the 1980s, the Philippines become a net resource provider in 2014 because of increased extraction and exports of metal ores. Overall, the material requirements grew over the past two decades at lower rate than GDP, signifying relative decoupling. The new data and indicators we present are aimed to inform the national policy agenda. They may help to formulate policies that integrate economic and environmental priorities and guide the Philippines towards achieving the SDGs.

DOI： 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.01.012

Potential of Waste Heat Exchange Considering Industrial Location Changes: A Case of Shinchi-Soma Region in Fukushima, Japan 査読有り

Yi Dou, Minoru Fujii, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Kei Gomi, Seiya Maki, Hiroki Tanikawa

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers 2018年4月

Anthropogenic Disturbance by Domestic Extraction of Construction Minerals in Japan 査読有り

Yoshida, K; Okuoka, K; Tanikawa, H

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 22 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 145 - 154 2018年2月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Industrial Ecology

Accompanying the huge amount of material accumulation in the socioeconomic sphere is anthropogenic disturbance, namely, artificial landform transformation attributed to mining, soil excavation, construction, and physical development. Anthropogenic disturbance impacts the natural environment and is strongly related to hidden material flow (HMF). However, only few studies have considered anthropogenic disturbance as the starting point of material transfer in the ecosphere. The objectives of the present study are: (1) to spatially quantify the impact of humans on the natural environment by estimating the anthropogenic disturbance attributed to mining and (2) to contribute to the knowledge of HMF by examining the phenomenon using the relatively unexplored methodology of assessing the relationship between anthropogenic disturbance and material transfer by means of a geographical information system and digital elevation model. Statistical data obtained by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan were used to account for domestic extraction. By comparing the respective results of bottom-up and top-down accountings, we estimated the potential HMF. The database developed in this study not only reflects the amount of anthropogenic disturbance and potential HMF, but also reveals their destructive effect on the environment and the spatial distribution of anthropogenic disturbance.

DOI： 10.1111/jiec.12543

Feasibility of developing heat exchange network between incineration facilities and industries in cities: Case of Tokyo Metropolitan Area 査読有り

Dou, Y; Ohnishi, S; Fujii, M; Togawa, T; Fujita, T; Tanikawa, H; Dong, L

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 170 巻頁： 548 - 558 2018年1月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Cleaner Production

Energy conservation is critical for promoting urban low-carbon and sustainable development. Because a large amount of heat energy is wasted during energy conversion and transportation, the recovery of waste heat and its cascading use would substantially save resources and reduce CO2 emissions. As a typical case of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area, direct extracting steam from incinerators for industrial use is considered more efficient than power generation, but hard to be popularized because of long distance heat transport. On the basis of the heat atlas, this study develops an integrated model to assess the feasibility of developing heat exchange network between incineration facilities and industries in city scale, and evaluates the impacts from land use on economic and environmental indices. The result reveals that maximum 45.2% of the incineration waste heat can be utilized to cover 13.8% of the heat consumption in industries, where annual net benefit and CO2 emission reduction could achieve 63 billion JPY (≈0.6 billion USD) and 2200 kt CO2/year, respectively. However, current geographic separation between incineration facilities and industries brings a dilemma between economic and environmental benefits which will obstruct the popularization of waste heat exchange. Given this result, a cluster map to classify involved incineration facilities is provided which helps in establishing a renewal strategy considering positive land use adjustment. These results are also referable in urban planning integrated with distributed energy system as well as provide a case for promoting Urban Symbiosis.

DOI： 10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.09.147

Innovative planning and evaluation system for district heating using waste heat considering spatial configuration: A case in Fukushima, Japan 査読有り

Dou, Y; Togawa, T; Dong, L; Fujii, M; Ohnishi, S; Tanikawa, H; Fujita, T

RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 128 巻頁： 406 - 416 2018年1月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Resources, Conservation and Recycling

Energy shortage and global climate change have created a dilemma in Japan, especially after the great earthquake of 2011 in eastern Japan. District Heating System (DHS) using waste heat is highlighted as an attractive solution. However, because of low heat demand in urban areas and the geographic separation of industries, popularizing this solution is considerably difficult in Japan. Previous studies have focused on technical improvements on existing district heating networks, but these studies lack sufficient discussion on an early-stage integrated land-use planning. Supported by technological assessment and emerging concepts of Industrial-Urban Symbiosis (I-US), this study combines the system development of DHS and land use scenarios into a symbiotic design based on inventory survey and geographic database, and conducts a cost-benefit analysis to scientifically and quantitatively evaluate the effects brought from land-use policies. Results from a case study of Shinchi Town in the Fukushima Prefecture indicate DHS using waste heat can realize significant benefits of energy saving and CO2 reduction, provided positive guidance on land use planning is implemented. Moreover, the model framework of this study also supports a quantitative assessment on policy implementation to help in decision making on urban sustainable energy planning.

DOI： 10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.03.006

名古屋市中心部における4d-GISを用いた建築物滞留年推計モデルの構築と物質ストック分析

奥岡桂次郎, 野中一鴻, 谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集Ｇ（環境） 74 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： II_267 - II_273 2018年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：公益社団法人土木学会

循環型社会の実現に向けて，廃棄物の発生源となる物質ストック及び物質代謝を詳細に把握することが重要である．社会的背景や地理的要因が物質代謝に与える影響について把握する必要がある．本研究では，名古屋市中心部(約12km2)を対象に，1949年から2009年における各構造物単位(建築物，道路，鉄道)での都市構造物データベースを構築した．建築物滞留年推計モデルを構築し，社会的・地理的パラメータを説明変数として分析し，階数，人口密度，建物工法，公定歩合の変化ごとの建築物滞留年を推計した．また，名古屋市中心部2003年から2009年の6年で解体される建築物について実データと建築物滞留年推計モデルのシミュレーションによる結果を比較，検討した．解体判定が正確に行えたのは6.03Mt中の4.89Mtであり，RC造で高層な建築物ほど正確な解体判定が行えた．

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.74.ii_267

建築物の年代間での同一性判定を用いた東京都市圏における更新量の推計査読有り

朝隈友哉, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学論文集 ceis32 巻 ( 0 ) 頁： 13 - 18 2018年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：一般社団法人環境情報科学センター

循環型社会形成に向けて，都市における詳細な物質ストック分布を時系列で広範囲に渡って把握することが急務である。本研究では，地理情報システムによる年代間での同一性判定を用いることで，東京都市圏における空間分布及び時間変化を可視化し，建築物更新量の推計を行った。東京都での建築物更新は2003 年から2009 年にかけて着工総面積が134 百万m2，解体総面積が 80 百万m2，2009 年から2015 年にかけて着工総面積が103 百万m2，解体総面積が96 百万m2 となった。本研究で推計された着工量は，東京都統計年報による統計値と比較して0.7-1.2 倍，解体量は3 倍程度の値となった。

DOI： 10.11492/ceispapers.ceis32.0_13

The Socio-Economic Metabolism of an Emerging Economy: Monitoring Progress of Decoupling of Economic Growth and Environmental Pressures in the Philippines 査読有り国際共著

谷川寛樹

Journal of Ecological Economics 147 巻頁： 155 - 166 2018年

Modeling material flows and stocks of the road network in the United States 1905-2015 査読有り Open Access

Miatto, A; Schandl, H; Wiedenhofer, D; Krausmann, F; Tanikawa, H

RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 127 巻頁： 168 - 178 2017年12月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Resources, Conservation and Recycling

Recent years have seen a growing interest in the potential for a more circular economy and the application of material flow accounting to increase knowledge on materials accumulating in in-use stocks. This study assesses the dynamics of stocks and flows related to road networks, which are a significant destination for recycled construction and demolition waste. We develop a bottom-up stock-driven model to assess long-term inflows, outflows, and materials accumulated in roads to assess requirements for construction minerals of the road network in the United States. We estimate material requirements using the expansion of the transport network as a driver, and scheduled maintenance and technological coefficients from engineering literature to assess input and output flows. We apply the model to historical data for the United States road network from 1905 to 2015 and show that the current material stock of construction minerals in the road network of the United States is 15.1 billion tonnes, growing 21-fold since 1905. During the 20th century, the material requirements of road construction have declined from 35% to 15% of economy-wide material consumption of non-metallic minerals in the United States. The share of roads in economy-wide in-use stocks has also declined from 17% to 13%. This shows that roads, once established, remain in place and most material flows are due to extending and refurbishing them, while the construction of completely new roads makes up a much smaller part of the material flows related to the road network.

DOI： 10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.08.024

物質ストック・フローに着目したストック型社会構築に向けた指標

鉄軌道輸送システム整備に関わるマテリアルストック・フロー分析査読有り

金城鐘顕, 吉田圭介, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学会誌 45 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 58-63 2017年12月

谷川寛樹, 醍醐市朗, 小口正弘, 奥岡桂次郎, 高木重定

廃棄物資源循環学会誌 28 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： 431 - 437 2017年11月

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：一般社団法人廃棄物資源循環学会

フロー型社会から脱却し，ストック型社会を目指すためには，社会の物質代謝，つまり，物質フローと物質ストックを把握する必要がある。環境省により推計されているわが国の物質フローは，主に投入と産出，蓄積純増，再利用から成り立っており，表裏一体となるべき物質ストックの全体像については触れられていない。本稿では，ストック型社会の構築に資する物質ストック・フロー分析を通じて，物質ストックの区分を示し，わが国の物質フローと物質ストックの状況を定量化し，さらに 3 つの物質ストック指標について検討を行った。その結果，1990 年と 2010 年を比較すると，総物質投入量は 6 割程度に減少している一方，物質ストックは 1.7 倍に増加していることが明らかとなった。さらに，物質ストックに関する 3 指標を例示したが，ストック型社会構築までの道のりを端的に示す必要があり，あるべきストック型社会像と合わせて，今後も引き続き検討を行う必要がある。

DOI： 10.3985/mcwmr.28.431

Material Flow Accounts and Driving Factors of Economic Growth in the Philippines 査読有り

Martinico-Perez, MFG; Fishman, T; Okuoka, K; Tanikawa, H

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 21 巻 ( 5 ) 頁： 1226 - 1236 2017年10月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Industrial Ecology

This study looks into material flow trends in the Philippines from 1985 to 2010 by utilizing the methodology of economy-wide material flow analysis. Using domestic data sources, this study presents disaggregated annual material flow trends in terms of four major material categories, namely: biomass; fossil energy carriers; ores and industrial minerals; and construction minerals. The results describe in detail the growth of material flows in a high-density country at the onset of its development and reveal the shift of material consumption from dominance of renewable materials in 1985 to nonrenewable materials in 2010. IPAT analysis shows that the increase in material consumption was driven by population growth from 1985 to 1998 and by growth in affluence from 1999 to 2010. However, high inequalities amidst the growing economy suggest that a small group of wealthy people have influenced the acceleration of material consumption in the Philippines. The results of this research are intended to provide a thorough analysis of the processes occurring in Philippine economic growth in order to assist in tackling implications for the important issue of sustainable resource management.

DOI： 10.1111/jiec.12496

Material stock's overburden: Automatic spatial detection and estimation of domestic extraction and hidden material flows 査読有り

Yoshida, K; Fishman, T; Okuoka, K; Tanikawa, H

RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 123 巻頁： 165 - 175 2017年8月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Resources, Conservation and Recycling

Anthropogenic material stocks are expanding at ever-increasing rates across the world, and their environmental and economic impacts draw more and more attention from academia, policy makers, and economic and environmental bodies. As the knowledge base regarding anthropogenic material stocks expands, it is important to not only comprehend the societal side of material stock growth but also its counterpart to the material balance—the natural environment from which the materials used for stocks come from. However, due to difficulties of data procurement, and muted interest in materials which are considered low-value high volume, the environmental burdens related to construction minerals have received less attention so far despite the huge amounts involved. In this study, we employ geographic information systems (GIS) with digital elevation model (DEM) datasets, to form an automated method of detection and measurement of the anthropogenic disturbance of soil and earth at excavation and mining sites, which accounts not only for the material extracted for usage in the anthroposphere, but also its related unused extraction. This geographically explicit method allows to directly pinpoint the location and volume of anthropogenic disturbance. Using Japan as a case study, the results suggest that the ratio of unused extraction to used extraction may exceed 1:1 for construction minerals in Japan. We also find that the environmental effects of anthropogenic activity are bigger than natural soil disturbance by several orders of magnitude, highlighting the need to reduce raw material extraction and increase the efficient use of the existing material stock.

DOI： 10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.09.010

Global Patterns and Trends for Non-Metallic Minerals used for Construction 査読有り

Miatto, A; Schandl, H; Fishman, T; Tanikawa, H

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 21 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 924 - 937 2017年8月

Feasibility of a new-generation nighttime light data for estimating in-use steel stock of buildings and civil engineering infrastructures 査読有り Open Access

Liang, HW; Dong, L; Tanikawa, H; Zhang, N; Gao, ZQ; Luo, X

RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 123 巻頁： 11 - 23 2017年8月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Resources, Conservation and Recycling

Regional scale estimation of in-use steel stock (IUSS) using satellite observation of nighttime lights (NTL) is essential for urban resource consumption management and resource recovery monitoring. S-NPP VIIRS (Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership's Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) NTL product is newly released in 2013, which has enhancements in both spatial and radiometric resolutions compared with the DMSP-OLS (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's Operational Linescan System) NTL products. To evaluate whether these enhancements can improve the estimations of IUSS of buildings (IUSSB) and civil engineering infrastructure (IUSSCE), the S-NPP VIIRS NTL products were used to estimate IUSSB and IUSSCE at both sub-national level of Japan and national level of world, and their performances were compared with those of using DMSP-OLS radiance calibrated (RC) NTL data. Our results indicate that the S-NPP VIIRS NTL data can offer more accurate estimates of IUSSB and IUSSCE (R2 values of 0.952 and 0.909) than those of DMSP-OLS RC NTL (R2 of 0.929 and 0.884) at prefectural level of Japan. Similar to DMSP-OLS RC NTL product, urban NTL of S-NPP VIIRS data has a stronger relationship with IUSSB, and IUSSCE was more closely related to total NTL. At national level, S-NPP VIIRS NTL also showed better estimations of IUSSB and IUSSCE. We confirmed that dividing the world into different regional groups is also required for estimating IUSSB and IUSSCE from S-NPP VIIRS NTL. For estimation of IUSSCE, two classifications including Asia region and Non-Asia region are appropriate when using S-NPP VIIRS NTL product, which is superior to DMSP-OLS RC NTL. For estimation of IUSSB, more classifications may be still required which is similar to DMSP-OLS RC NTL. Overall, our study indicated that S-NPP VIIRS data have greater capability in modeling IUSSB and IUSSCE than DMSP-OLS RC data. Our results are critical for ever-improvement of policy making on urban resource management.

DOI： 10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.04.001

EcoBalance 2016-responsible value chains for sustainability (October 3-6, 2016, Kyoto, Japan) 査読有り

Nansai, K; Motoshita, M; Daigo, I; Hashimoto, S; Hayashi, K; Kanemoto, K; Kashiwagi, A; Kobayashi, Y; Kondo, S; Kudoh, Y; Matsuno, Y; Tanikawa, H; Yamasue, E; Yoshikawa, N

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT 22 巻 ( 7 ) 頁： 1165 - 1174 2017年7月

How important are realistic building lifespan assumptions for material stock and demolition waste accounts? 査読有り

Miatto, A; Schandl, H; Tanikawa, H

RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 122 巻頁： 143 - 154 2017年7月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Resources, Conservation and Recycling

Accurate assessments of construction materials stocked in the built environment have received increased attention in the Industrial Ecology literature over the past few years. Many recent models that estimate building material inflows, stock accumulation and end-of-life waste, however, rely on simplistic assumptions about the lifespan of built infrastructure. While several probability distributions have been proposed (normal, Weibull, log-normal, and so on) there is no agreement on which model is best suited for modelling the accumulation of building material stock at urban and national levels. In this study we introduce an analysis of the hazard rate of buildings and discuss alternative distribution functions to model lifespan, testing the fit of five commonly used distributions to real data from the cities of Nagoya (Japan), Wakayama (Japan), and Salford (UK). The results highlight how cities with fast replacement rates are overall best modelled by right-skewed distributions, but single cohort levels express independent behaviours based on their characteristics. We investigate the sensitivity of a top-down stock accumulation model to the choice of different distributions and input parameters uncertainties. The results show that different lifespan distribution functions result in very similar overall stock accumulation at the national level, but have large impacts on calculated demolition waste flows. Differences are more pronounced for cities and the choice of a certain distribution will significantly affect the calculation of the average lifetime. Our results suggest that top-down national material stock accounts have high reliability, and are only weakly affected by the choice of one distribution over another. For cities, it is beneficial to use a distribution based on the characteristics of the buildings analysed, with regard to density and building characteristics. Stock accumulation research would profit from future bottom-up research into building lifespans to validate top-down estimation procedures.

DOI： 10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.01.015

Decoding the effect of socioeconomic transitions on carbon dioxide emissions: Analysis framework and application in megacity Chongqing from inland China 査読有り

Global socioeconomic material stocks rise 23-fold over the 20th century and require half of annual resource use 査読有り国際共著 Open Access

Krausmann, F; Wiedenhofer, D; Lauk, C; Haas, W; Tanikawa, H; Fishman, T; Miatto, A; Schandl, H; Haberl, H

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 114 巻 ( 8 ) 頁： 1880 - 1885 2017年2月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Human-made material stocks accumulating in buildings, infrastructure, and machinery play a crucial but underappreciated role in shaping the use of material and energy resources. Building, maintaining, and in particular operating in-use stocks of materials require raw materials and energy. Material stocks create long-term path-dependencies because of their longevity. Fostering a transition toward environmentally sustainable patterns of resource use requires a more complete understanding of stock-flow relations. Here we show that about half of all materials extracted globally by humans each year are used to build up or renew in-use stocks of materials. Based on a dynamic stock-flow model, we analyze stocks, inflows, and outflows of all materials and their relation to economic growth, energy use, and CO2 emissions from 1900 to 2010. Over this period, global material stocks increased 23-fold, reaching 792 Pg (±5%) in 2010. Despite efforts to improve recycling rates, continuous stock growth precludes closing material loops; recycling still only contributes 12% of inflows to stocks. Stocks are likely to continue to grow, driven by large infrastructure and building requirements in emerging economies. A convergence of material stocks at the level of industrial countries would lead to a fourfold increase in global stocks, and CO2 emissions exceeding climate change goals. Reducing expected future increases of material and energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions will require decoupling of services from the stocks and flows of materials through, for example, more intensive utilization of existing stocks, longer service lifetimes, and more efficient design.

DOI： 10.1073/pnas.1613773114

Tian, X; Chang, M; Shi, F; Tanikawa, H

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 142 巻頁： 2114 - 2124 2017年1月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Cleaner Production

Understanding the impact of dramatic socioeconomic transitions on soaring CO2 emissions is essential for developing targeted and effective CO2 mitigation policies. Taking Chongqing as a representative case in inland China, we proposed an analysis framework to evaluate the socioeconomic transition effects on CO2 emissions during the period 1997–2012. Based on the framework, we found that the industrialization process, with its rapid expansion of construction and heavy manufacturing industries, had a strong impact on the structure of CO2 emissions growth. Meanwhile, the development of transport equipment manufacturing and high-tech industry contributed to low-carbon development. The framework further showed that the urbanization process contributed to the increased CO2 emissions mainly by intensive investments in the construction sector and changing urban household consumption. Particularly, the fast-growing urban population, the urban household consumption level, as well as the associated consumption pattern transition towards a growing demand for manufacturing products, transport, shelter, and services together lead to tripled urban household consumption related CO2 emissions. These empirical results suggest that a targeted CO2 mitigation policy in Chongqing should focus on multiple significant socioeconomic driving factors with diverse leading sectors. This implication should be applicable for other inland regions with similar geographical and socioeconomic features.

DOI： 10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.11.072

南斉規介, 本下晶晴, 醍醐市朗, 橋本征二, 林清忠, 金本圭一朗, 柏木愛一郎, 小林由典, 近藤伸亮, 工藤祐揮, 松野泰也, 谷川寛樹, 山末英嗣, 吉川直樹

日本LCA学会誌 13 巻 ( 2 ) 頁： 180 - 189 2017年

都市部における浸水解析のための三次元地下鉄GISデータの構築査読有り

杉本賢二, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集G（環境） 73 巻 ( 5 ) 頁： I_283-I_289 2017年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

都市の発展に伴い拡大する地下空間は，都市構造の多重階層の中で最も低い場所に位置するため，極端事象や巨大災害による浸水被害に対して脆弱である．そのため，地下空間を対象とした降雨および津波による浸水解析の重要性が高まっているものの，既往研究ではデータの整備・利用可能性が広域での分析の制約となっていた．本研究では名古屋市市営地下鉄を対象として，都市部における広域での浸水解析に利活用できる三次元地下鉄GISを，工事記録や施工図面をもとに作成した．また，作成した地下鉄GISデータを用いた浸水解析として，南海トラフ地震による津波浸水被害を想定した結果，海岸部に近い名港線では1mを超える津波高により路線総延長の8割に相当する区間が浸水し，名城線の伝馬町駅では隣接する堀田駅からの浸水が路線を通じて遡上するなど，空間配置と接続性による影響を明らかにした．

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.73.I_283

熊本地震による失った建築物ストックの推計査読有り

杉本賢二, 奥岡桂次郎, 秋山祐樹, 谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集G（環境） 73 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： II_293-II_300 2017年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

自然災害による被災地域の復旧・復興に向け，被災前の社会状況に回復するために必要となる資材投入量の把握や，効率的な災害廃棄物の処理計画が求められる．本研究では，空間・属性詳細なマイクロ建物データと，災害被害分布情報との重ね合わせにより「失った建築物ストック」を推計する手法の構築を目的とする．マイクロ建物データの建物情報より建築物ストック量の空間分布を推計し，それに平成28年熊本地震の計測震度分布による建物倒壊判定を行い推計した．その結果，熊本県における建築物ストックの約6割が震度6弱以上の強振動域に分布しており，全壊棟数の推計結果は被害調査報告に近しい値となることが示された．また，地震動による建物被害により260.7万トンの失った建築物ストックが発生し，その半分がコンクリートであることが明らかになった．

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.73.II_293

木材利用の促進が都市と森林の炭素固定に与える影響:地理情報を用いた東海三県でのケーススタディ 査読有り

小野聡, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学論文集 31 巻 ( 0 ) 頁： 13-18 2017年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

<tt>木材は循環利用が可能で低炭素社会を実現する上で重要である。本研究では木材利用を促進した時の，都市と森林全体での炭素固定量を推計した。また，地理情報を用いて都市部と森林部での木材輸送を最適化する手法の確立をおこなった。木材利用の促進に関して滅失非木造住宅の木造住宅への置換シナリオや耐用年数増加シナリオの組み合わせによる計6 つのシナリオを設定した。耐用年数2 倍，滅失した非木造住宅の3％を木造住宅に置換するシナリオの際，都市と森林の合計で1 億5974 万t-C となり最も高い値となった。空間解析では都市部と森林部での需給ギャップと需給地点間の空間分布を可視化した。</tt>

DOI： 10.11492/ceispapers.ceis31.0_13

Feasibility of a new-generation nighttime light data for estimating in use steel stock of buildings and civil engineering infrastructures 査読有り国際共著

谷川寛樹

Resources Conservation and Recycling online 巻 2017年

Estimating Materials Stocked by Land-Use Type in Historic Urban Buildings Using Spatio-Temporal Analytical Tools 査読有り

Marcellus-Zamora, KA; Gallagher, PM; Spatari, S; Tanikawa, H

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 20 巻 ( 5 ) 頁： 1025 - 1037 2016年10月

Stochastic Analysis and Forecasts of the Patterns of Speed, Acceleration, and Levels of Material Stock Accumulation in Society 査読有り

Fishman, T; Schandl, H; Tanikawa, H

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 50 巻 ( 7 ) 頁： 3729 - 3737 2016年4月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Environmental Science and Technology

The recent acceleration of urbanization and industrialization of many parts of the developing world, most notably in Asia, has resulted in a fast-increasing demand for and accumulation of construction materials in society. Despite the importance of physical stocks in society, the empirical assessment of total material stock of buildings and infrastructure and reasons for its growth have been underexplored in the sustainability literature. We propose an innovative approach for explaining material stock dynamics in society and create a country typology for stock accumulation trajectories using the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) methodology, a stochastic approach commonly used in business studies and economics to inspect and forecast time series. This enables us to create scenarios for future demand and accumulation of building materials in society, including uncertainty estimates. We find that the so-far overlooked aspect of acceleration trends of material stock accumulation holds the key to explaining material stock growth, and that despite tremendous variability in country characteristics, stock accumulation is limited to only four archetypal growth patterns. The ability of nations to change their pattern will be a determining factor for global sustainability. (Graph Presented).

DOI： 10.1021/acs.est.5b05790

Understanding Tsunami Damage as "Lost Stock" 査読有り

Tanikawa H.

Disaster Resilient Cities: Concepts and Practical Examples 頁： 85-97 2016年3月

The Metabolism Analysis of Urban Building by 4d-GIS - A Useful Method for New-type Urbanization Planning in China 査読有り

Chang Chen, Feng Shi, Keijiro Okuoka, Hiroki Tanikawa

Universal Journal of Materials Science 4 巻 ( 2 ) 頁： 40-46 2016年3月

Socioeconomic metabolism and sustainability 査読有り

Tanikawa H.

Basic Studies in Environmental Knowledge, Technology, Evaluation, and Strategy: Introduction to East Asia Environmental Studies 頁： 149-157 2016年1月

Feasibility of a Simplified, Clinically Oriented, Three-dimensional Gait Analysis System for the Gait Evaluation of Stroke Patients. 査読有り

Mukaino M, Ohtsuka K, Tsuchiyama K, Matsuda F, Inagaki K, Yamada J, Tanikawa H, Saitoh E

Progress in rehabilitation medicine 1 巻頁： 20160001 2016年

Innovative Planning and Evaluation System for District Heating Using Waste Heat Considering Spatial Configuration: A Case in Fukushima, Japan 査読有り

谷川寛樹

Resources Conservation and Recycling 21 巻 2016年

The Weight of Society Over Time and Space: A Comprehensive Account of the Construction Material Stock of Japan, 1945-2010 査読有り国際共著

Tanikawa, H; Fishman, T; Okuoka, K; Sugimoto, K

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 19 巻 ( 5 ) 頁： 778 - 791 2015年10月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Industrial Ecology

In order to fully comprehend the socioeconomic metabolic (SEM) dynamics and material balance of nations, long-term accounting of economy-wide material stock is necessary in parallel to material flow accounts. Nevertheless, material stock accounts have been scarce, isolated, and mostly focused either on single materials, short time spans, or small regions. This study has two objectives: (1) review the state of the art of material stock research in the SEM discourse and (2) present a project to map, in a high level of detail, the in-use construction material stocks of Japan and its 47 prefectures from the 1940s until the present era.

DOI： 10.1111/jiec.12284

Concrete transformation of buildings in China and implications for the steel cycle 査読有り

Wang, T; Tian, X; Hashimoto, S; Tanikawa, H

RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 103 巻頁： 205 - 215 2015年10月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Resources, Conservation and Recycling

Urbanization and real estate development are two mighty impetuses for the growth of China. An enhanced dynamic modeling has been devised to explore stocks and flows of buildings in the country and to quantify the related steel cycle. The uncertainties of the variables and results are investigated by the means of Monte Carlo method and sampling analysis. The building stocks are expected to increase to some 85–130 billion m2 in the mid-century, about 40–100% up from the current level. Throughout China but in urban areas in particular, concrete structures are replacing the buildings made of wood, clay brick, and primitive materials. By 2050 every two out of three buildings in China will be reinforced concrete- or steel-framed, leading to substantial demand for ferrous metals. Scenarios analysis shows that a slowing down in the building stock expansion will likely occur in China in no more than ten years. This may open up a transition with profound industrial and resource implications. Increasing businesses for the construction industry may emerge from maintenance, retrofitting, and end-of-life management of existing buildings. The steel industry shall reform its capacity to conform to the growingly available secondary resources and the declining requirement for construction steel. Efficient and appropriate recycling of steel content from waste concrete will play an important role in material conservation. A collaboration of improvements in process material efficiency with lifetime extension and application of high-strength steel may save nearly 40% of primary iron ores for building use in the coming four decades.

DOI： 10.1016/j.resconrec.2015.07.021

Comparative studies on the driving factors of resource flows in Myanmar, the Philippines, and Bangladesh 査読有り

Maung K.

Environmental Economics and Policy Studies 17 巻 ( 3 ) 頁： 407 - 429 2015年7月

Comparative Studies on Driving Factors of Resource Flow in Myanmar, the Philippines and Bangladesh 査読有り

Kyaw Nyunt Maung, Marianne Faith G. Martinico-Perez, Takahiro Komatsu, Sujauddin Mohammad, Shinsuke Murakami, Hiroki Tanikawa

Environmental Economics and Policy Studies 2015年7月

福島県北部沿岸地域におけるフライアッシュのクリンカー代替利用に関する地域循環圏の検討査読有り

木下卓大, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集G (環境) 71 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： 133-138 2015年6月

マテリアルストックデータベースの拡充とストック利用効率の検討査読有り

山下剛弥, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹　

土木学会論文集G (環境) 71 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： 319-327 2015年6月

低炭素化に向けた日本全国の土石系資源ストックフローの将来シナリオ分析査読有り

松井健吾,　長谷川正利,　高木重定,　奥岡桂次郎,　谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集G (環境) 71 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： 309-317 2015年6月

名古屋市中心部における4d−GISを用いた都市の経年変化によるMSFAに関する研究査読有り

青柳淳之介, 杉本賢二, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集G (環境) 71 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： 467-474 2015年6月

The socio-economic drivers of material stock accumulation in Japan's prefectures 査読有り

Fishman, T; Schandl, H; Tanikawa, H

ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS 113 巻頁： 76 - 84 2015年5月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Ecological Economics

Physical economy research has, thus far, focused on the throughput of materials that underpin economic development. The role of stocks of buildings and infrastructure has remained underexplored, yet it is the physical stock that provides service to society. To fill this gap, this research investigates stock dynamics in Japan in relation to population and economic drivers using panel regression and IPAT analyses for the past five decades. We recognize characteristic changes in the strength and relative influence of the drivers throughout time, in different subnational regions, and on the dynamics of buildings compared to transportation infrastructure. We find that material stock accumulation mainly occurred due to growth in economic activity, specifically by tertiary sector demand. Apart from a period of government-driven stock accumulation in the 1990s to stimulate economic growth, as economic and population growth slowed stock accumulation dynamics also changed signaling a new stock saturation trend. Migration from rural to urban areas has recently become an influential driver, leaving behind underused buildings and roads. This analysis provides a case study on how socio-economic drivers and stock accumulation interacted and changed while the country matured, which may have implications for understanding stock dynamics in rapidly industrializing economies.

DOI： 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.03.001

Greening China's Wastewater Treatment Infrastructure in the Face of Rapid Development Analysis Based on Material Stock and Flow through 2050 査読有り

Hou, WX; Tian, X; Tanikawa, H

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 19 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 129 - 140 2015年2月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Industrial Ecology

Summary: Wastewater treatment infrastructure (WWTI) construction in China has entered an accelerated stage of development in recent years as a result of rapid economic growth, urbanization, and the demand for improving water quality. As a result, a large amount of resources and materials will be allocated for the WWTI, and it is particularly important to find ways to reduce resource consumption effectively so that social dematerialization and sustainable development can be achieved. In this study, we employed the dynamic material flow model to estimate the material flows and stocks of WWTIs and the associated carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions through 2050, considering effects of a rise in water consumption, a longer lifetime, and an increased material recycling rate. Our results indicate that material consumption in WWTIs will increase rapidly through 2025 to meet the needs of the increased volume of discharged wastewater as well as to overcome the shortage of existing wastewater treatment plants. In contrast with the moderate effects of rise in water consumption, prolonging the lifetime will greatly reduce material consumption in WWTI construction during the period 2030-2050, and approximately 60% of the total material input will be saved in the medium-lifetime scenario, compared with the short-lifetime scenario. Material output and CO2 emissions associated with WWTIs will be reduced by 87% and 37%, respectively, in the medium-lifetime scenario, compared with the short-lifetime scenario, under high-water-consumption growth. Our results highlight the great importance of pipeline construction and cement consumption in resource consumption associated with WWTI construction in China. Moreover, this study also examined the potential ways to reduce material consumption in WWTI construction in the context of the demand chain, the design, construction, operation and management, and demolition.

DOI： 10.1111/jiec.12186

低炭素化に向けた日本全国の土石系資源ストックフローの将来シナリオ分析

松井健吾, 長谷川正利, 高木重定, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集Ｇ（環境） 71 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： II_309 - II_317 2015年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：公益社団法人土木学会

本研究は土石系資源出荷量とストックの増加量から原単位を作成し，土石系資源ストックフローの将来推計を行った．また，推計結果より，混合セメント導入による二酸化炭素排出量の推計，再生骨材としての循環利用ポテンシャルの評価を行った．資材投入量は建築において約1億トン，道路においては約1億2000万トン，その他土木においては約8700万トンと推計された，混合セメント導入による二酸化炭素排出量は2015年と比べ，2050年では約390万トン，現状維持の2050年に比べると約80万トンの二酸化炭素排出量の削減が推計された．また，再生骨材は2050年において4700万トンとなるのに対して，建築から廃棄されるコンクリート塊は約1億4000万トンにのぼり，高い循環利用ポテンシャルが明らかとなった．

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.71.ii_309

屋上緑化建築における屋根面蒸発散量とCO2削減効果の数値シミュレーション

名古屋市中心部における4d-GISを用いた都市の経年変化によるMSFAに関する研究査読有り

青柳淳之介, 杉本賢二, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集G（環境） 71 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： II_467-II_474 2015年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

建築物や道路などの社会基盤構造物を建設する際には大量の資材が投入されており，都市に蓄積された物質は構造物が取り壊される際に廃棄される．このように大量の物質が移動する際には投入や廃棄処理を効率的に行う必要があり，マテリアルフローを定量的に把握することは，循環型社会の形成を考える上で不可欠である．本研究では，名古屋市の中心部をケーススタディ対象地として，1970年，1980年，1990年，1997年，2003年，2009年の6年代で構築された4d-GISを用いて用途地域別や，大規模な建物更新があったエリアを対象にMSFA(Material Stock and Flow Analysis)を行った．その結果，対象エリア内のマテリアルストックは増加傾向にあり，特に商業地域において物質が高密度に分布していることが分かった．さらに，用途地域などの都市構造の変化が物質代謝に影響を与えていることを示した．

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.71.II_467

マテリアルストックデータベースの拡充とストック利用効率の検討査読有り

山下剛弥, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集G（環境） 71 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： II_319-II_327 2015年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

本研究では，都市に投入，蓄積，廃棄される物質のメタボリズムの把握の為，日本の社会基盤の中で大きな割合を占めていると考えられる港湾・漁港・海岸保全施設を対象としてマテリアルストックのデータベースを拡充し，既往の研究と比較した．また，推計したマテリアルストックを用い，MSPS(Material Stock Per unit of Service)指標を用いることによってストック利用効率を検討した．その結果，港湾・漁港・海岸保全施設の2005年におけるマテリアルストックはそれぞれ，783Mton，1,714Mton，472Mtonであると把握した．運輸関係におけるストック利用効率について，空港はストック利用効率上昇，道路・鉄道では輸送量，港湾では輸送客についてストック利用効率の低下がみられた．

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.71.II_319

平野勇二郎, 谷川寛樹, 藤田壮

土木学会論文集Ｂ１（水工学） 71 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： I_439 - I_444 2015年

DEMを用いた標高変化に基づく人為的な土砂移動量の推計査読有り

杉本賢二, 黒岩史, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

環境科学会誌 28 巻 ( 2 ) 頁： 153 - 161 2015年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：社団法人環境科学会

大量の物質フローに特徴付けられた社会経済と自然環境との関わりを分析する上では，物質投入量の大半を占める土石系資源の動態を把握することが重要である。しかし，統計データにおける物質投入量には「隠れたフロー」が付随しているが，物質フローの算定サイクルから外れているために定量的把握が十分に行われていない。さらに，地形の人為的撹拌は大規模な範囲で加速的に引き起こされることが多く，土石資源の損失だけでなく景観や環境保全，地盤災害などの観点からもその動態を把握することが重要である。そこで，本研究では，土砂の移動に伴って標高が変化することに着目し，標高データの経年変化から地理的条件や隠れたフローを考慮した，人為的な土砂移動量を推計することを目的とする。そのために，土砂採取に関する情報が公表されている大阪府泉南郡岬町の多奈川地区を対象としてケーススタディとした。地表面の状態を表すラスタサーフェスを，地形図と空中写真，および人工衛星による採取前後の標高データを用いて作成し，その体積差分により土砂移動量の推計を行った。その結果，標高の変化に基づく土砂移動量は4,595～4,950万m3となり，地山土量からほぐした採掘土量への土量変換係数を考慮すると7,581～8,168万m3と推計された。これは土砂採取量として公表されている値と比較して8～17％の過大推計となったが，その誤差要因として，標高データの高さ精度に起因するものと，複数の地層による岩石種類のほぐし土量変化率などによる影響が考えられる。また，人工衛星によるDEMを用いた場合に，高さ精度に起因する誤差範囲が大きいものの，航空レーザ測量を用いた場合と推計値に大差がないことから，データが整備されていない地域における土砂移動量の把握に有用であることが示唆される。

DOI： 10.11353/sesj.28.153

福島県北部沿岸地域におけるフライアッシュのクリンカー代替利用に関する地域循環圏の検討

Time-series analysis and prediction of building material stock and flow using 4d-GIS 査読有り

Kenji Sugimoto, Hiroyoshi Morita, Hiroki Tanikawa

Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management 頁： 243 1-17 2015年

木下卓大, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集Ｇ（環境） 71 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： II_133 - II_138 2015年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：公益社団法人土木学会

循環型社会の実現にあたり，地域の特性や循環圏の性質を考慮し，最適な地域循環圏を形成することは不可欠である．東日本大震災以降，日本の電力供給源は原子力から火力へシフトしており，大量に発生する石炭灰の有効利用が今後の課題である．本研究では，福島県北部沿岸地域を対象とし．福島県相馬共同火力発電所から排出される年間50万トンのフライアッシュ(FA)を再資源化し，建設資材へ循環利用することによる投入ポテンシャルの検討を行った．震災の復興建築，既存の建物の更新，海岸保全施設へのFA投入ポテンシャルは，発電所から到達圏域50kmに循環圏を設定することで，1～40km圏内のおよそ3倍に増加することが明らかとなった．しかし，圏域内の建築物への年間FA投入ポテンシャルと比べ，発電所から1年間に発生するFAは5倍以上存在した．

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.71.ii_133

Time-series analysis and prediction of building material stock and flow using 4d-GIS 査読有り

Sugimoto K., Morita H., Tanikawa H.

CUPUM 2015 - 14th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management 2015年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：CUPUM 2015 - 14th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management

We developed 4d-GIS, which is a database of spatial 3D GIS data with a time scale, to estimate building material stock and flow and visualize the transition of buildings in urban districts for contribution to spatial designs. By utilizing 4d-GIS, it was found that steel buildings initially accounted for 60%, but the number of reinforced concrete buildings increased. As for building material stock, it has increased from 0.35 million ton in 1961 to 97.5 million tons in 2010, because of the increase of RC buildings and vir-tualization. We predicted the building renovation for Business As Usual (BAU) and District Renewal Plan (DRP) scenarios up to 2050. The results show that building material stock does not differ much between BAU and DRP scenarios in 2050, but it was observed in the DRP scenario, building material stock increased by 0.2 million ton because buildings will be re-built collectively in units.

人為的攪拌による土石移動量の推計に関する研究査読有り

奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学論文集 28 巻頁： 88 - 94 2015年

人為的攪拌による土石移動量の推計に関する研究査読有り

吉田圭介, 奥岡桂次郎, 杉本賢二, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学論文集 2014年12月

Greening China's Wastewater Treatment Infrastructure in the Face of Rapid Development: Analysis Based on Material Stock and Flow through 2050 査読有り

Wanxin Hou, Xin Tia, Hiroki Tanikawa

Journal of Industrial Ecology, 19(1), 19 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 129-140 2014年9月

衛星夜間光と合成開口レーダを用いた建物延床面積の推計モデルの開発査読有り

黒田将平，杉本賢二，奥岡桂次郎，谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集G (環境) 70 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： 97-106 2014年7月

China's carbon footprint: A regional perspective on the effect of transitions in consumption and production patterns 査読有り

Tian, X; Chang, M; Lin, C; Tanikawa, H

APPLIED ENERGY 123 巻頁： 19 - 28 2014年6月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Applied Energy

A better understanding of CO2 emission trends caused by domestic consumption (referred to as the carbon footprint) in China, especially in the context of changes in consumption and production patterns triggered by economic development in recent years, is important to develop effective approaches for curbing the fast-growing emissions. As the various regions in mainland China exhibit great disparities in socioeconomic factors and are thus in different stages of development, this study aims to obtain a regional map of carbon footprints in China, and address the changes, sources, and drivers of regional carbon footprints. Result indicates that regional per-capita carbon footprint varied greatly from 2.9 ton in the Southwest to 8.4 ton in Jingjin in 2007, and this disparity can be attributed to differences in regional income. On average, construction and services accounted for about 70% of the regional footprint in 2007. From a view of contributions from final demand activities, it was found that on average 56% of the regional footprint was associated with investment activity, 35% was related to household consumption, and 9% was attributable to government consumption. The results of structural decomposition show that while changes in consumption patterns have promoted rapid growth in the carbon footprint across all regions, the contribution from changes in production patterns varied widely, depending on what changes in production structure and CO2 intensity improvements were undertaken. Further CO2 intensity improvements and low-carbon optimization of the production structure will be important approaches for curbing the rapid growth of the carbon footprint across all regions of China. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

DOI： 10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.02.016

Accounting for the Material Stock of Nations 査読有り Open Access

Fishman, T; Schandl, H; Tanikawa, H; Walker, P; Krausmann, F

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 18 巻 ( 3 ) 頁： 407 - 420 2014年6月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Industrial Ecology

National material stock (MS) accounts have been a neglected field of analysis in industrial ecology, possibly because of the difficulty in establishing such accounts. In this research, we propose a novel method to model national MS based on historical material flow data. This enables us to avoid the laborious data work involved with bottom-up accounts for stocks and to arrive at plausible levels of stock accumulation for nations. We apply the method for the United States and Japan to establish a proof of concept for two very different cases of industrial development. Looking at a period of 75 years (1930-2005), we find that per capita MS has been much higher in the United States for the entire period, but that Japan has experienced much higher growth rates throughout, in line with Japan's late industrial development. By 2005, however, both Japan and the United States arrive at a very similar level of national MS of 310 to 375 tonnes per capita, respectively. This research provides new insight into the relationship between MS and flows in national economies and enables us to extend the debate about material efficiency from a narrow perspective of throughput to a broader perspective of stocks. © 2014 The Authors.

DOI： 10.1111/jiec.12114

Estimates of Lost Material Stock of Buildings and Roads Due to the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami 査読有り

Tanikawa, H; Managi, S; Lwin, CM

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 18 巻 ( 3 ) 頁： 421 - 431 2014年6月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Industrial Ecology

This article describes research conducted for the Japanese government in the wake of the magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami that struck eastern Japan on March 11, 2011. In this study, material stock analysis (MSA) is used to examine the losses of building and infrastructure materials after this disaster. Estimates of the magnitude of material stock that has lost its social function as a result of a disaster can indicate the quantities required for reconstruction, help garner a better understanding of the volumes of waste flows generated by that disaster, and also help in the course of policy deliberations in the recovery of disaster-stricken areas. Calculations of the lost building and road materials in the five prefectures most affected were undertaken. Analysis in this study is based on the use of geographical information systems (GIS) databases and statistics; it aims to (1) describe in spatial terms what construction materials were lost, (2) estimate the amount of infrastructure material needed to rehabilitate disaster areas, and (3) indicate the amount of lost material stock that should be taken into consideration during government policy deliberations. Our analysis concludes that the material stock losses of buildings and road infrastructure are 31.8 and 2.1 million tonnes, respectively. This research approach and the use of spatial MSA can be useful for urban planners and may also convey more appropriate information about disposal based on the work of municipalities in disaster-afflicted areas. © 2014 by Yale University.

DOI： 10.1111/jiec.12126

Exploring China's Materialization Process with Economic Transition: Analysis of Raw Material Consumption and Its Socioeconomic Drivers 査読有り

Modeling In-Use Steel Stock in China's Buildings and Civil Engineering Infrastructure Using Time-Series of DMSP/OLS Nighttime Lights 査読有り Open Access

Liang, HW; Tanikawa, H; Matsuno, Y; Dong, L

REMOTE SENSING 6 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： 4780 - 4800 2014年6月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Remote Sensing

China's rapid urbanization has led to increasing steel consumption for buildings and civil engineering infrastructure. The in-use steel stock in the same is considered to be closely related to social welfare and urban metabolism. Traditional approaches for determining the in-use steel stock are labor-intensive and time-consuming processes and always hindered by the availability of statistical data. To address this issue, this study proposed the use of long-term nighttime lights as a proxy to effectively estimate in-use steel stock for buildings (IUSSB) and civil engineering infrastructure (IUSSCE) at the provincial level in China. Significant relationships between nighttime lights versus IUSSB and IUSSCE were observed for provincial variables in a single year, as well as for time series variables of a single province. However, these relationships were found to differ among provinces (referred to as "inter-individual differences") and with time (referred to as"temporal differences"). Panel regression models were therefore proposed to estimate IUSSB and IUSSCE in consideration of the temporal and inter-individual differences based on a dataset covering 1992-2007. These models were validated using data for 2008, and the results showed good estimation for both IUSSB and IUSSCE. The proposed approach can be used to easily monitor the dynamic of IUSSB and IUSSCE in China. This should be critical in providing valuable information for policy making regarding regional development of buildings and infrastructure, sustainable urban resource management, and cross-boundary material recycling. © 2014 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.

DOI： 10.3390/rs6064780

Wang, HM; Tian, X; Tanikawa, H; Chang, M; Hashimoto, S; Moriguchi, Y; Lu, ZW

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 48 巻 ( 9 ) 頁： 5025 - 5032 2014年5月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Environmental Science and Technology

Chinas rapidly growing economy is accelerating its materialization process and thereby creating serious environmental problems at both local and global levels. Understanding the key drivers behind Chinas mass consumption of raw materials is thus crucial for developing sustainable resource management and providing valuable insights into how other emerging economies may be aiming to accomplish a low resource-dependent future. Our results show that Chinas raw material consumption (RMC) rose dramatically from 11.9 billion tons in 1997 to 20.4 billion tons in 2007, at an average annual growth rate at 5.5%. In particular, nonferrous metal minerals and iron ores increased at the highest rate, while nonmetallic minerals showed the greatest proportion (over 60%). We find that Chinas accelerating materialization process is closely related to its levels of urbanization and industrialization, notably demand for raw materials in the construction, services, and heavy manufacturing sectors. The growing domestic final demand level is the strongest contributor of Chinas growth in RMC, whereas changes in final demand composition are the largest contributors to reducing it. However, the expected offsetting effect from changes in production pattern and production-related technology level, which should be the focus of future dematerialization in China, could not be found. © 2014 American Chemical Society.

DOI： 10.1021/es405812w

How does industrial structure change impact carbon dioxide emissions? A comparative analysis focusing on nine provincial regions in China 査読有り

Tian, X; Chang, M; Shi, F; Tanikawa, H

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY 37 巻頁： 243 - 254 2014年3月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Environmental Science and Policy

China as a whole is undergoing rapid industrial structure change, but this process is proceeding in a particularly unequal manner across regions. Understanding these changes and their associated impacts on CO2 emissions in these regions is a vital step toward appropriately targeted policy making. In this paper, we conduct both regional analysis throughout the nation and case studies focused on nine typical regions in order to identify regional patterns of industrial structure change and CO2 emissions. Results indicate that structural change in primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors was highly correlated, but structural change by industrial sector did not correspond well, with the stage of economic development. The disparity in regional industrial structure impacts regional CO2 emissions substantially. First, industrial structure changes involving a shift from agriculture, mining, and light manufacturing to resource-related heavy manufacturing in many regions led to a rapid increase in CO2 emissions at the national level. Second, production structure change, especially in construction and services sectors, is an important source of CO2 emission growth in regions. Some developed regions with vastly improved input efficiency in resource-related heavy manufacturing demonstrate the immense potential for reducing CO2 emissions in regions lagging in input efficiency. Third, regions with a more developed industrial structure avoided local CO2 emissions by importing carbon-intensive products while exporting less carbon-intensive but higher-value-added products in the machinery and equipment and service sectors. Several policy implications are also discussed based on the main findings of this study. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

DOI： 10.1016/j.envsci.2013.10.001

A comparative study on assessment of economy-wide material flow accounts and its implications in Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Philippines. 査読有り

合成開口レーダと建築物面積との相関性評価査読有り

杉本賢二，奥岡桂次郎，谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集G (環境) 70 巻 ( 5 ) 頁： 79-85 2014年3月

都道府県別CO2排出量推計モデルの構築及び太陽光発電の導入効果の検討査読有り

長谷川正利, 大西暁生, 戸川卓哉, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集G（環境） 70 巻 ( 5 ) 頁： I_157-I_165 2014年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

持続的な発展を目指して行くうえで地球温暖化問題は大きな障壁となる．この問題を解決するためには低炭素社会への転換が必要である．都市構造物の環境負荷を検討するのであれば，その対策による効果を分かりやすくするために，各段階別でライフサイクルを考慮した分析を行うことが望ましい．そこで，本研究では日本全国のCO2排出量の将来推計をシナリオ別で行った．そして，太陽光発電や都市の集約化などの省エネ対策がCO2排出量に与える影響の比較を行った． 　この結果，現状維持型のシナリオでは2045～2049年の間のCO2排出量が1,985百万トン/5年となった．また，省エネ対策を導入した際のCO2排出量は1,250百万トン/5年となり，現状維持型のシナリオと比較して約4割のCO2排出量が削減された．その要因として，太陽光発電の導入が深く影響していることが示された．

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.70.I_157

Multi-scale assessment of floor area disparity using spatial database : An empirical study in Japan 査読有り

Hanwei Liang, Hiroki Tanikawa

Journal of International Review of Civil Engineering 5 巻 ( 2 ) 頁： 48-55 2014年

Exploring the Characterization of Building Stock and its Relationship with Nighttime Light Distribution in Japan : A Spatial Perspective 査読有り

Hanwei Liang, Wanxin Hou, Cherry Myo Lwin, Hiroki Tanikawa

Journal of Environmental Information Science 42 巻 ( 5 ) 頁： 25-32 2014年

Maung, K. N, T. Komatsu, M. F. G. Martinico-Perez, C. M. Lwin, S. Mohammad, K. Sugimoto, K. Okuoka, S. Murakami, H. Tanikawa

Journal of Environmental Information Science 42 巻 ( 5 ) 頁： 51 - 60 2014年

夜間衛星光と合成開口レーダを用いた建物延床面積の推計モデルの開発査読有り

谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集G (環境) 70 巻 2014年

都道府県別CO2排出量推計モデルの構築および太陽光発電の導入効果の検討査読有り

大西暁生, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集G(環境）Vol.70 No.5,地球環境研究論文集第22巻巻 2014年

都市重量と循環性持続可能性評価査読有り

谷川寛樹

海外環境協力センター OECC会報 72 巻頁： 8 - 9 2014年

Exploring the Characterization of Building Stock and its Relationship with Nighttime Light Distribution in Japan : A Spatial Perspective 査読有り

谷川寛樹

Journal of Environmental Information Science 42 巻頁： 25 - 32 2014年

Multi-scale assessment of floor area disparity using spatial database : An empirical study in Japan 査読有り

谷川寛樹

Journal of International Review of Civil Engineering 5 巻頁： 48 - 55 2014年

Evaluation of wildfire propagation susceptibility in grasslands using burned areas and multivariate logistic regression 査読有り

Cao, X; Cui, XH; Yue, M; Chen, J; Tanikawa, H; Ye, Y

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF REMOTE SENSING 34 巻 ( 19 ) 頁： 6679 - 6700 2013年10月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：International Journal of Remote Sensing

This research simulated wildfire propagation susceptibility based on multivariate logistic regression. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)-derived fuel indicators and topographic factors were the independent variables, and burnt areas served as the dependent variable. MODIS data were collected daily during the wildfire seasons of April to May and September to October from 2001 to 2007 to acquire information about live and dead fuel in the Mongolia-China grasslands. The inputs for the independent parameters for wildfire propagation susceptibility modelling were the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), optimized soil-adjusted vegetation index (OSAVI), moisture stress index (MSI), global vegetation moisture index (GVMI), dead fuel INDEX (DFI), elevation, slope, and aspect. Multivariate logistic regression ranking indicates that DFI, MSI, DEM, and OSAVI are the top four factors, with an overall accuracy of 80%. 'Leave one out' cross-validation demonstrated that the overall accuracy of the propagation susceptibility modelling ranged from 65% to 87%. Finally, the model was used to produce 10 day average wildfire propagation susceptibility maps during the wildfire seasons of 2001-2007 and to predict the location of burned areas. This research will be useful for understanding the propagation susceptibility of wildfires in grassland areas and for creating policies for preventing wildfire spread. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

DOI： 10.1080/01431161.2013.805280

Quality Evaluation of Steel, Aluminum, and Road Material Recycled from End-of-Life Urban Buildings in Japan in Terms of Total Material Requirement 査読有り

Yamasue, E; Minamino, R; Tanikawa, H; Daigo, I; Okumura, H; Ishihara, KN; Brunner, PH

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 17 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 555 - 565 2013年8月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Industrial Ecology

In this study we introduce the concept of total material requirement (TMR) to quantify the quality of materials from end-of-life buildings. The TMRs for the recycling of materials (urban ore TMR [UO-TMR]) from four types of Japanese buildings ( Japanese traditional wooden structure [ JTWS], wooden frame with walls structure [ WFS ], reinforced-concrete structure [RCS], and steel-based structure [SS]) have been estimated and the trade-off between the increase in function of recycled materials such as steel made from scrap and the additional inputs of energy and materials required to create the increase in function were evaluated. Steel made from scrap, aluminum made from scrap, and road material are assumed to be recycled from steel products, aluminum products, and aggregate and cement concrete in the buildings, respectively. Case study analyses were carried out to determine the effect of recycling only aboveground materials compared to recycling both aboveground and subsurface materials. Also, the effect of varying the recycling rate of wooden demolition debris is determined. The UO-TMRs of steel made from scrap range from 4.7 kilograms per kilogram (kg/kg) to 18.2 kg/kg. Urban tailings (unrecycled components) account for the greatest proportion of the UO-TMR of steel made from scrap, and the next largest contributor is the recycling process. In the case of aluminum made from scrap, the UO-TMRs range from 22 to 196 kg/kg, with the contribution of urban tailings generally dominant, and the second largest contributor being on-site demolition and shredding. The UO-TMRs of recycled road material range from 1.04 to 1.16 kg/kg and are similar for different recycling cases and types of buildings. © 2013 by Yale University.

DOI： 10.1111/jiec.12014

Materials demand and environmental impact of buildings construction and demolition in China based on dynamic material flow analysis 査読有り

Evaluation of material stocks, GAS and NAS for infrastructure in Japan : Moving towards a sustainable stock-type society

Cherry Myo Lwin, Hiroki Tanikawa, Seiji Hashimoto

Journal of International Review of Civil Engineering 4 巻 ( 3 ) 頁： 118-127 2013年5月

Huang, T; Shi, F; Tanikawa, H; Fei, JL; Han, J

RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING 72 巻頁： 91 - 101 2013年3月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Resources, Conservation and Recycling

Due to economic growth and improving of people's living standards, China is experiencing large scale building construction, which resulted in a shortage of domestic resource supplies and severe environmental impact. This study estimated materials demand and environmental impact from buildings in China from 1950 to 2050 based on MFA. Furthermore, the effect of prolonging the lifetime of buildings and strengthening materials recycling on reducing raw material demand, solid waste generation and CO2 emissions was investigated. The results indicated, for almost all scenarios, a strong drop in materials demand and related CO2 emissions for new buildings construction over the next years. From an environmental as well as a resource conservation point of view, this is a considerable conclusion. The iron ore and limestone demand from buildings construction will decrease around 2030, however, they always increase dependence on import for iron ore and accelerating depletion of limestone. Furthermore, prolonging lifetime of buildings and strengthening materials recycling are very effective methods to avoid more raw material consumption, waste generation and to mitigate CO2 emissions.

DOI： 10.1016/j.resconrec.2012.12.013

Structural decomposition analysis of the carbonization process in Beijing: A regional explanation of rapid increasing carbon dioxide emission in China 査読有り

An Analysis of material stocks for the construction of transport infrastructure in Japan: Moving towards a sustainable stock-type society

Cherry Myo Lwin, Hiroki Tanikawa, Seiji Hashimoto

Journal of Environmental Information Science 41 巻 ( 5 ) 頁： 63-72 2013年3月

Comparing Gross and Net Additions to Material Stock for Roadways in Japan 査読有り

Cherry Myo Lwin, Seiji Hashimoto, Hiroki Tanikawa

International Journal of Engineering and Research and Applications 3 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 1119-1124 2013年2月

Tian, X; Chang, M; Tanikawa, H; Shi, F; Imura, H

ENERGY POLICY 53 巻頁： 279 - 286 2013年2月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Energy Policy

Methods to control China's CO2 emissions under its rapid economic development process have received much attention. As the top industrialized and urbanized region in China, Beijing is a good case to show the trends of CO2 emissions in China, and examining how different drivers influence the CO2 emissions direction of Beijing can give valuable insights to other regions on dealing with the emerging climate change issues. To this end, we conducted structural decomposition analysis to quantify the contributions of technological and socio-economic factors to the rapid CO2 emissions growth in Beijing from 1995 to 2007. An increasing final demand level and production structure change led to carbonizing Beijing significantly, while energy intensity improvement was Beijing's sole prominent source on decarbonizing its economic development in 1995-2007. Further, results highlighted the importance of trading and investment in CO2 emissions variations in Beijing. The industrial structure change toward heavy manufacturing and services sectors led to the significant role of these sectors in CO2 emissions growth in Beijing. Beijing's carbonizing process is a reminder to other regions in China to reconsider the direction of their industrial structure change and implement consistent and strict energy-saving policies. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

DOI： 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.10.054

鬼頭祐介, 奥岡桂次郎, 韓驥, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 41 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 79 2013年1月

地理情報を考慮した木造住宅寿命の変化による木材需給量と炭素固定量のシナリオ分析査読有り

岡崎奈津子, 奥岡桂次郎, 韓驥, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 41 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 81 2013年1月

マテリアルストック推計のための4D GISの構築 : 名古屋市都心部を対象にしたケーススタディ査読有り

青柳淳之介, 杉本賢二, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 41 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 86 2013年1月

都道府県における建築物・社会基盤施設の経年マテリアルストック推計に関する研究査読有り

田中健介, 早川容平, 奥岡桂次郎, 杉本賢二, 谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集G（環境） 69 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： II_25-II_34 2013年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

持続可能な社会の実現のため，わが国では循環型社会形成推進基本法，施策がとられている．高度経済成長期に整備され，耐用年数を迎える建築物・社会基盤施設が今後も増加傾向にあり，これらの適切な維持管理にあたり，蓄積された資材の詳細・空間分布・集積傾向の把握が急務とされている．そこで本研究では，建築物・社会基盤施設を対象に各都道府県へと投入・蓄積される資材量を統計情報・地理数値情報の二種類のデータを用い，蓄積量の推移と空間分布を明らかにした．この結果，1965年時点で72億トンであった社会基盤ストックは2010年では206億トンに増加し，約2.8倍となり，構造別では建築物と道路が，資材別ではコンクリートと骨材が大きな割合を示した．

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.69.II_25

持続可能な社会へ向けたCO2排出量及びマテリアルストック・フローの将来分析―北陸三県の市町村を対象として― 査読有り

長谷川正利, 大西暁生, 奥岡桂次郎, 戸川卓哉, 谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集G（環境） 69 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： II_13-II_23 2013年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

持続可能な社会を達成するためには，将来のCO2排出量及びマテリアルストック・フローをできる限り詳細に把握する必要がある．そこで，本研究では北陸三県の市町村を対象に，将来のCO2排出量及びマテリアルストック・フローの推計をシナリオ別で行った．この結果，活力を促進し環境技術を導入した「Bシナリオ/技術導入有り」が2050年時点での北陸三県におけるCO2排出量及びマテリアルストック・フローを最も少なく抑えられることが分かり，その量は，CO2排出量30.5Mt，マテリアル投入量7.5Mt，マテリアルストック426.2Mt，マテリアル廃棄量19.9Mtとなった．また，その要因として，出生率の低下や都市の集約化，住宅の長寿命化が深く影響していることが示された．

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.69.II_13

PALSARを用いた建築物の空間分布に関する研究査読有り

杉本賢二, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学論文集 27 巻 ( 0 ) 頁： 85-90 2013年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

都市の持続的な発展を維持するためには，人間活動で使用される資源の量とその挙動を把握することが重要である。しかし，発展途上国では統計データの入手可能性や精度において課題があるため，世界全体で適用可能なデータが必要となる。本研究では，愛知県を対象として，人工衛星による観測値であるPALSARデータと，実際の建築物分布とを比較して両者の相関性について検証を行った。その結果，衛星画像の分解能よりも大きいサイズで集計することで固有のノイズが軽減され，相関係数が高くなることが示された。また，土地被覆データを用いて高さのある地物である樹木が存在している森林域を除外することにより，さらに強い相関が得られることが明らかとなった。

DOI： 10.11492/ceispapers.ceis27.0_85

中国の土地利用変化による建築マテリアル消費に関する研究‐社会経済分析と地理空間分析を用いて‐ 査読有り

環境情報科学学術研究論文集 26 巻頁： 43-48 2012年11月

東海三県における建設系廃棄物の地域循環圏に関する基礎的研究査読有り

奥岡桂次郎，三宅悠介，大西暁生，韓驥，白川博章，谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集G（環境） 68 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： 147-154 2012年10月

全国都道府県における都市構造物マテリアルストック需要量の将来シナリオ分析査読有り

大西暁生，河村直幸，奥岡桂次郎，石峰，谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集G（環境） 68 巻 ( 5 ) 頁： 1-13 2012年9月

夜間光衛星画像とGISを用いた建築用鋼材蓄積量の推計査読有り

田口現貴，許峰旗，谷川寛樹，松野泰也

鉄と鋼 98 巻 ( 8 ) 頁： 62-68 2012年8月

Regional disparity in CO2 emissions: assessing sectoral impacts on the CO2-emission structure among regions of mainland China 査読有り

Tian X, Chang M, Tanikawa H, Shi F, Imura H

Journal of Industrial Ecology 16 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 612-622 2012年8月

Toward a Low Carbon Dematerialization Society: Measuring the Materials Demand and CO2 Emissions of Building and Transport Infrastructure Construction in China 査読有り

Feng Shi, Tao Huang, Hiroki Tanikawa, Ji Han, Seiji Hashimoto, and Yuichi Moriguchi

Journal of Industrial Ecology 16 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 493-505 2012年8月

Estimation of Steel Use in Buildings by Night Time Light Image and GIS Open Access

Taguchi, G; Hsu, FC; Tanikawa, H; Matsuno, Y

TETSU TO HAGANE-JOURNAL OF THE IRON AND STEEL INSTITUTE OF JAPAN 98 巻 ( 8 ) 頁： 450 - 456 2012年8月

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Tetsu-To-Hagane/Journal of the Iron and Steel Institute of Japan

Steel is the most widely used material among all metals. As the concern about effective use of the in-use steel stock as secondary resource grows, numerous studies analyzing the flow and stock of steel have been conducted. Though top-down and bottom-up approaches have been employed in material flow analysis, the applicability of these approaches is largely restricted by the data availability. To overcome this problem, we have proposed a method for estimating in-use steel stock based on satellite images. Our previous studies had shown effective regression of steel stock in buildings and nighttime lights on country and sub-national level. However, the relationship has not been examined in micro level, i.e. building stocks and pixels. Therefore, in this study, geographic information system (GIS) was used to estimate the in-use steel stock for buildings in Tokyo, Japan. The volume of buildings in 145 areas with 1 km square in Tokyo was calculated with GIS. Then, the correlation was investigated between the building volume, in-use building steel stock and the radiance of nighttime light. As the result, building volume and in-use building steel stock were found to be highly correlated with the radiance of nighttime light.

DOI： 10.2355/tetsutohagane.98.450

Regional Disparity in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Assessing Sectoral Impacts on the Carbon Dioxide Emissions Structure Among Regions of Mainland China 査読有り

Tian, X; Chang, M; Tanikawa, H; Shi, F; Imura, H

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY 16 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 612 - 622 2012年8月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Industrial Ecology

Due to its position as the world's largest energy consumer and carbon emitter, China is facing the great challenge of controlling its rising carbon emissions. As a large country with great disparities in economic development and industrial structure among its regions, it is essential to understand the carbon emission characteristics of regions and industrial sectors in order to formulate effective and targeted policies to achieve domestic carbon emission reduction targets. For this reason, we have conducted a comprehensive analysis in this article of the carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions structure and major responsible sectors for 19 provincial regions of mainland China. Great disparities in direct CO 2 emissions and intensities are identified across regions. We show that the direct CO 2 intensities in regions are affected by not only the economic development level, but also by the structure of the carbon-intensive sectors and sectoral CO 2 emissions intensities. A region-by-region fine-scale breakdown analysis demonstrates that both the direct CO 2 emissions and total CO 2 emissions are highly concentrated in a minority of sectors: the construction sector is the major contributor to the total CO 2 emissions in all regions, followed by the services sectors as a whole. Moreover, the petroleum and chemicals sector, nonmetallic mineral products sector, metal products sector and electricity and steam production sector should also receive more attention, as they are identified as "highly carbon intensive" in most of the regions studied, especially through the close linkage with the construction sector. Based on these results, we discuss and propose policy implications for controlling the rising CO 2 emissions in regions of mainland China. © 2012 by Yale University.

DOI： 10.1111/j.1530-9290.2012.00514.x

Toward a low carbon-dematerialization society: Measuring the materials demand and co <inf>2</inf> emissions of building and transport infrastructure construction in China 査読有り

Shi F., Huang T., Tanikawa H., Han J., Hashimoto S., Moriguchi Y.

Journal of Industrial Ecology 16 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 493 - 505 2012年8月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Journal of Industrial Ecology

Rapid industrialization and urbanization has been occurring in China since the introduction of the opening-up policy in 1978. The demands of building and infrastructure construction have increased rapidly, especially in the transportation and housing sectors in China. Large amounts of construction materials have been required in building construction and maintenance of the railway and road systems, especially steel and cement. Continued cement and steel production will require heavy raw material resource consumption and will emit a great deal of carbon dioxide (CO 2). This study forecasts future steel and cement demand and related resource consumption and CO 2 emissions for building and transportation infrastructure based on a material flow analysis of China. Furthermore, the effect of prolonging the lifetime of building and transportation infrastructure is appraised. The results indicate that building and transportation infrastructure will increase sharply through 2030. Although the demand for new construction will then decrease, steel and cement consumption will remain at a high level through 2050 because these are needed to maintain roads and railways. In addition, prolonging the lifetime of buildings and infrastructure is a useful way to avoid more raw material consumption and to mitigate CO 2 emissions. However, its main effect is to decrease the demolition of buildings and reduce material use for the maintenance of roads and railways. Currently not enough countermeasures have been implemented to realize a low carbon-dematerialization society in the building and transportation construction sector. Future comprehensive efforts should include the reuse of waste construction material and a reduction in raw material consumption intensity by applying technical innovations. © 2012 by Yale University.

DOI： 10.1111/j.1530-9290.2012.00523.x

MSIASMを用いた地域の持続可能性評価 : 日本の都道府県を対象としたケーススタディ査読有り

Analysis of Material Stock Accumulated in Residential Building　&　Transport Infrastructures and its Regional Disparity in China 査読有り

Licheng ZHENG, Ji HAN, Hiroki TANIKAWA

Journal of Environmental Information Science 40 巻 ( 5 ) 頁： 51-60 2012年4月

経年GISデータベースを用いた道路構造物の物質量推計に関する研究査読有り

早川容平, 韓驥, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 40 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 73 2012年1月

標高の変化に基づく土石移動量の推計に関する研究査読有り

黒岩史, 韓驥, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 40 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 66 2012年1月

名古屋都市圏における建設系排出物の地域循環圏構築に関する基礎的研究査読有り

三宅悠介, 奥岡桂次郎, 韓驥, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 40 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 63 2012年1月

日本全国の橋梁の物質ストックの推計に関する研究査読有り

田中健介, 奥岡桂次郎, 韓驥, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 40 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 70 2012年1月

人工林管理と木造住宅の炭素固定効果の空間分析査読有り

有川美穂, 韓驥, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 40 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 67 2012年1月

ヒートアイランド緩和策による影響の評価査読有り

鬼頭祥平, 韓驥, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 40 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 64 2012年1月

鬼頭祐介, 韓驥, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 40 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 53 2012年1月

Going beyond energy accounting for sustainability: Energy, fund elements and the economic process 査読有り

Kozo Mayumi and Hiroki Tanikawa

Energy 37 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 18-26 2012年1月

Going beyond energy accounting for sustainability: Energy, fund elements and the economic process 査読有り

Mayumi, K; Tanikawa, H

ENERGY 37 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 18 - 26 2012年1月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Energy

The main purpose of this paper is to examine to what extent the widely used energy accounting schemes are useful for dealing with sustainability issues in view of Georgescu-Roegen's production process and its implications for the evolutionary aspects of the economic process. The first part critically examines the concept of " net energy" in relation to material elements produced and consumed in the economic process in light of Georgescu-Roegen's bioeconomics. The first part also considers the issue of what is produced in the economic process and emphasizes the importance of matter in bulk. The second part first compares the theoretical basis of embodied energy analysis (EEA) from the point of view of Piero Sraffa, a point of view not examined by Georgescu-Roegen. The second part also examines EEA critically in terms of Georgescu-Roegen's flow-fund model and compares Sraffa's analysis and Georgescu-Roegen's flow-fund model. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

DOI： 10.1016/j.energy.2011.04.050

全国都道府県における都市構造物マテリアルストック需要量の将来シナリオ分析

大西暁生, 河村直幸, 奥岡桂次郎, 石峰, 谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集Ｇ（環境） 68 巻 ( 5 ) 頁： I_1 - I_13 2012年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：公益社団法人土木学会

近年，資源の有限性などから，物質の投入・廃棄の量を低水準に抑えるストック型社会への移行が求められている．とりわけ，都市構造物における物質循環は大きく，ここでの削減は循環全体においても非常に重要である．このような状況の中，人間活動において使用される資源の重量と挙動をできる限り詳細に把握する目的から，マテリアルストックとフローの分析が進められている．そのため本研究では，将来のマテリアルフローを把握する前段階として，人間活動がもっとも反映される都市構造物に着目し，このマテリアルストック需要量に影響を与える社会的・経済的な要因を整理するとともに，異なった社会像を反映した複数のシナリオを用いることによって，2000年から2050年までの全国都道府県のマテリアルストック需要量を推計した．この結果，都市構造を集約し，また経済成長が進み女性の社会進出が促進され出生率が低下するといった「都市集約型」シナリオにおいて，2050年の都市構造物のマテリアルストック需要量の削減量が，2000年と比較して，他のシナリオ（現状維持型と分散定住型）よりも少なくなることがわかった．また，「都市集約型」シナリオの一人当たり都市構造物のマテリアルストック需要量は，同期間において，他のシナリオが減少するのに対してむしろ増加することがわかった．

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.68.i_1

中国の土地利用変化による建築マテリアル消費に関する研究:社会経済分析－社会経済分析と地理空間分析を用いて査読有り

HOU Wanxin, LIANG Hanwei, 韓驥, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学論文集 26 巻 ( 0 ) 頁： 43-48 2012年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

本研究は中国における国内マテリアル消費量を算出し、1996年から2009年の間にマテリアル消費量の駆動力を検討するためにインデックス分解分析を行った。また、土地利用の変化と国内マテリアル消費量の関係を推定するために、セミパラメトリック分析を行った。結果として、以下のように挙げられる：（1）一人当たりのGDPの寄与率は102.5％に達し、それは建築マテリアル消費増加の主な原因だった。（2）建築マテリアル消費の増加は農地から都市への転換の増加につながる理由の一つであるが、水、草原や湿地から都市へ変換は減少している。

DOI： 10.11492/ceispapers.ceis26.0_43

東海三県における建設系廃棄物の地域循環圏に関する基礎的研究

奥岡桂次郎, 三宅悠介, 大西暁生, 韓驥, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集Ｇ（環境） 68 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： II_147 - II_154 2012年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：公益社団法人土木学会

近年，循環型社会への移行に向けた取り組みが多く行われており，その一つに地域循環圏という概念がある．多大な物質フローを有する建設系廃棄物は，今後の発生量増加が予想されている．また，その発生には空間的な偏りが存在するため，地域循環圏を構築することで循環利用の効率化が可能と考えられる．ところが，既往研究は都道府県レベルでの分析が主として為されているため，より詳細な空間分布を考慮した将来推計が必要となる．そこで，本研究では，建設系廃棄物の49％を占めるコンクリート塊に着目して，その発生量と需要量を市町村ごとに推計するモデルを作成し，地域循環圏構築に向けた分析を行った．結果として，20km以内で循環させると仮定した場合，東海三県内で3つの圏域が見られた．

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.68.ii_147

木造住宅の寿命変化による木材需給と炭素固定量への影響に関する研究ー地理情報を用いた和歌山県域でのケーススタディー査読有り

有川美穂，妙中佐由理，谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集G 67 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： 513-522 2011年10月

東日本大震災により失った建設ストックの推計招待有り査読有り

平川隆之，黒岩史，鬼頭祐介，田中健介，谷川寛樹

日本LCA学会誌 7 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 374-378 2011年10月

Analysis of driving forces behind diversified carbon dioxide emission patterns in regions of the mainland of China 査読有り

Tian, X; Imura, H; Chang, M; Shi, F; Tanikawa, H

FRONTIERS OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & ENGINEERING IN CHINA 5 巻 ( 3 ) 頁： 445 - 458 2011年9月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Frontiers of Environmental Science and Engineering in China

China has large regional disparities in carbon dioxide CO2 emissions with economic development among its 31 provincial mainland regions. This paper investigates these disparities in CO2 emission patterns and identifies the factors underlying the differences. Results show that the 30 study China's mainland provinces (Tibet not included) can be divided into seven groups with three typical CO2 emission patterns. Index decomposition results indicate that changes in economic development, the industrial sector, and technology contribute far more to increased CO2 emissions than do population, energy structure, and other sectors. Close inspection reveals that different industry structures and technology contribute greatly to the differences observed in CO2 emissions between provinces with similar economic output. This study highlights the importance of region-specific industrial structure adjustment policies, especially for regions transitioning to heavy industry and for those still in the primary stages of industrialization. The potential application of a domestic carbon emissions trading system, to encourage regional investment in updated technology, is also discussed. © 2011 Higher Education Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

DOI： 10.1007/s11783-011-0330-6

都道府県における道路ネットワークの形成と産業構造の変化の関連性についての分析査読有り

Study on the Correlation between Material Stock of Roadways and Industrial Structure Change in Japan 査読有り

Cherry Myo Lwin, Ji Han, Hiroaki Shirakawa, Hiroki Tanikawa

Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Summer Symposium 13 巻頁： 305-308 2011年8月

中国水資源産業連関表の構築とインフラ建設投資の水資源への影響分析査読有り

石峰，大西暁生，谷川寛樹，黄トウ，森杉雅史，井村秀文

環境科学会誌 24 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 290-303 2011年8月

Decomposition Analysis of Energy Consumption Changes of Municipalities in China 査読有り

Jinling FEI, Hiroki TANIKAWA, Tao HUANG, Sradhanjali MOHANTY and Hidefumi IMURA

Environmental Information Science 13 巻頁： 56-60 2011年8月

Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of China's Societal Metabolism: A case study of Guangdong Province 査読有り

Jiaying Xu, Ji Han, Hiroki Tanikawa, Heinz Schandl

Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Summer Symposium 13 巻頁： 309-312 2011年8月

Evaluation of Carbon Footprint in China: A Regional Analysis Under Consumpsion-Based Carbon Emission Measurement 査読有り

Xin Tian, Feng Shi, Miao Chang, Hiroki Tanikawa, Hidefumi Imura

Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Summer Symposium 13 巻頁： 317-320 2011年8月

Study on quantification of relationship between land use and GDP based on Global scale spatial information 査読有り

Wanxin HOU, Hiroki Tanikawa, Tetsuya Tsurmi, Shunsuke Managi,Hiroaki Shirakawa

Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Summer Symposium 13 巻頁： 325-327 2011年8月

The study on optimization of proper size of sound material cycle area -material stock intensity per person with virtual urban area model- 査読有り

Keijiro Okuoka, Akio Onishi, Hiroaki Shirakawa and Hiroki Tanikawa

Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Summer Symposium 13 巻頁： 313-316 2011年8月

中国水資源産業連関表の構築とインフラ建設投資の水資源への影響分析査読有り

石峰, 大西暁生, 谷川寛樹, 黄〓, 森杉雅史, 井村秀文

環境科学会誌 = Environmental science 24 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 290 - 303 2011年7月

荒川祐至, 早川容平, 石峰, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 40 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 110 - 111 2011年3月

都市地下部におけるマテリアルフロー・ストックに関する研究 : 北九州市を対象としたケーススタディ査読有り

石原和弥, 前新将, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 40 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 112 - 113 2011年3月

日・韓・中, 家庭消費支出の推移とCO_2排出への影響-3国の家計支出調査の結果を用いて査読有り

文多美, 田畑智博, 東修, 谷川寛樹, 井村秀文

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 40 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 82 - 83 2011年3月

名古屋市における都市空間構造の変化と建物・空閑地への太陽光発電の導入によるCO_2排出量削減効果ポテンシャルの推計査読有り

高島健志, 大西暁生, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹, 井村秀文

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 40 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 100 - 101 2011年3月

マテリアルストックと産業構造の変化に関する研究 : 4d-GISを用いた道路構造物のケースヌタディ査読有り

早川容平, 荒川祐至, 石峰, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 40 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 106 - 107 2011年3月

TMR指標を用いた建設副産物のリサイクル性評価に関する研究 : 北九州市を対象としたマテリアルストック分析査読有り

前新将, 谷川寛樹, 山末英嗣, 井村秀文

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 40 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 96 - 97 2011年3月

DMSP-OLS夜光データを用いたマテリアルストックの空間分布解析 : 愛知県におけるケーススタディ査読有り

清水亮, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 40 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 108 - 109 2011年3月

木造住宅の寿命変化による木材需給と炭素固定量への影響に関する研究－地理情報を用いた和歌山県域でのケーススタディ－査読有り

有川美穂, 妙中佐由理, 谷川寛樹

土木学会論文集G（環境） 67 巻 ( 6 ) 頁： II_513-II_522 2011年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

本研究では，対象エリアでのマテリアルストック・フローを考慮し，住宅用木材の需給量が人工林の炭素固定に与える影響について定量化を行った．2050年までの期間を対象としたシナリオ分析の結果，住宅により固定される１年あたりの炭素量は減少する結果となったが，長寿命型住宅を導入するほど多いことがわかった．人工林による１年あたりの炭素固定量は減少するが，木材需要量が多い住宅を導入するほど多くなる結果となった．また，炭素固定量を二酸化炭素吸収量に換算したところ，人工林全域では減少する結果となった．しかし，京都議定書の対象となる二酸化炭素吸収量は長寿命住宅の導入によって増加する可能性があることが明らかになった．

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.67.II_513

中国水資源産業連関表の構築とインフラ建設投資の水資源への影響分析査読有り

石峰, 大西暁生, 谷川寛樹, 黄〓, 森杉雅史, 井村秀文

環境科学会誌 24 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 290-303 2011年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

近年，中国の経済は，従来の外需主導型経済からインフラ建設を中心とする内需型へ転換しつつある。インフラ建設投資の水資源多消費型・汚水多排出型産業への波及効果により直接的・間接的な水利用が増大し，さらには水環境に大きな影響を与える可能性がある。このようなインフラ建設投資と水利用および水環境の関係を把握することは非常に重要であると言える。ゆえに，本研究ではまず，産業別の用水量・汚濁負荷排出量の原単位を収集・整備することによって，インフラ建設投資の影響を把握できる水資源産業連関表を構築し，インフラ建設投資の生産誘発効果を分析した。さらに，用水量，汚水排出量，CODなどの汚濁負荷排出量の指標を用いて，水資源に対するインフラ建設投資の影響を評価した。この結果から，インフラ建設投資の生産誘発額が都市家計消費や輸出に匹敵する規模であり，経済発展の主要な牽引力であることが分かった。また，インフラ建設投資によって誘発される産業別の用水量および汚濁負荷排出量は，いずれも，農林水産業で圧倒的に多いことが分かった。それ以外にも，誘発される用水量の多い部門は電力・熱水生産供給業，鉄鋼業であることが判明した。さらに，CODの負荷排出量については製紙と紙製品製造業の誘発量が多いことが分かり，NH4の負荷排出量の場合は肥料生産を含む化学原料と化学製品製造業において多いことが明らかになった。そのため，このようなインフラ建設投資によって誘発の影響を受ける産業では，用水効率を向上するとともに汚濁負荷排出量を削減することが重要であると考えられる。

DOI： 10.11353/sesj.24.290

東日本大震災により失った建設ストックの推計

平川隆之, 黒岩史, 鬼頭祐介, 田中健介, 谷川寛樹

日本LCA学会誌 7 巻 ( 4 ) 頁： 374 - 378 2011年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：日本LCA学会

Following the disaster in Northeast Japan, it is important to obtain an estimation of the scale of lost buildings and infrastructures' material stock. Therefore the amount of materials necessary for future reconstruction as well as the subsequent waste flow generation could be estimated and, more importantly, proper policies could be proposed for the recovery of stricken areas. In this study, from detailed residential maps, we built a material stock database throughout Japan. And, by extracting material stock with the area affected by the tsunami, we built a lost material stock database. The amount of material stock in the area hit by the tsunami was calculated to be about 29 million tons. Superstructure of buildings is about 10 million tons, and the foundation of buildings is about 19 million tons. The problem lies in the amount of debris, and also the amount of materials in the ground. In this paper, lost material stock of each municipality, and the distribution of lost material stock in Ishinomaki and Higashimatsushima are described.

DOI： 10.3370/lca.7.374

Study on the material stock of transportation construction associated with the development of infrastructure in China 査読有り

Tao Huang, Feng Shi, Jinling Fei, Hiroki Tanikawa, Hidefumi Imura

24 巻頁：印刷中 2010年11月

都市の空間配置と二酸化炭素排出構造の関係に関する研究査読有り

奥岡桂次郎，大西暁生，白川博章，東修，谷川寛樹，井村秀文

環境システム研究 38 巻頁： 277-288 2010年10月

Industrial Structure Change and CO2 Emission Associated with Infrastructure Development in China 査読有り

Fang Tao, Shi Feng, Hiroki Tanikawa, Fei Jinrin, Hidefumi Imura

Environmental System Analysis and Research 38 巻頁： 301-307 2010年10月

4d-GISと用いた都市重量の変化と建設資材のTMR指標によるリサイクル性に関する検討査読有り

谷川寛樹，山末英嗣，稲津亮，前新将

環境システム研究 38 巻頁： 413-419 2010年10月

都道府県別建物ストック需要の将来シナリオ分析

大西暁生, 河村直幸, 奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

都市計画報告集 9 巻 ( 2 ) 頁： 58 - 63 2010年9月

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：公益社団法人日本都市計画学会

近年，資源の有限性などの観点から，物質の投入・廃棄(フロー)の量を低水準に抑えるストック型社会への移行が求められている．建設分野における物質循環は大規模であり，この分野におけるフローの削減が環境負荷の削減に果たす役割は非常に大きい．建設分野におけるフロー部分の動向を理解する上で，社会的要因を踏まえた将来のストック需要量を把握する必要がある．そこで本研究では，都市構造物のうち人間活動が反映されやすいであろう建築物に着目し，建築物ストック需要量に影響を与える要因を整理すると同時に，異なった社会像を反映した複数のシナリオごとの建築物ストック需要量の将来推計を行う．結果として，シナリオごとの一人あたり建築物ストック需要量に10トン近くの差が生じることが確認された．

DOI： 10.11361/reportscpij.9.2_58

都市の物質代謝推計を目指した建築物の平均使用年数の地理的分析 : 北九州市を対象としたケーススタディー査読有り

Environmental impact analysis of construction development―Compare China and Japan 査読有り

Tao Huang, Feng Shi, Jinling Fei, Hiroki Tanikawa, Hidefumi Imura

The 12th International Summer Symposium 12 巻頁：印刷中 2010年9月

紀伊半島北西部におけるミヤマフキバッタ属とダイリフキバッタ属（バッタ目，フキバッタ亜科）の分布査読有り

中尾史郎，小林怜史，谷川寛樹，神吉紀世子

南紀生物 52 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 66-69 2010年6月

平川隆之, 大西暁生, 高平洋祐, 谷川寛樹, 井村秀文

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 39 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 124 - 125 2010年3月

前新将, 寺南智弘, 深堀秀敏, 大西暁生, 東修, 谷川寛樹, 井村秀文

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 39 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 126 - 127 2010年3月

全国都道府県における社会経済構造の変化とマテリアルストックとの相関性に関する研究査読有り

河村直幸, 長岡耕平, 奥岡桂次郎, 大西暁生, 東修, 谷川寛樹, 井村秀文

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 39 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 122 - 123 2010年3月

中国のセメント産業におけるマテリアルフロー分析査読有り

王ロセイ, 石峰, 谷川寛樹, 東修, 大西暁生, 井村秀文

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 39 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 128 - 129 2010年3月

中国におけるインフラ建設の資材消費に関する研究 : 鉄道と道路を例として査読有り

黄韜, 石峰, 谷川寛樹, 東修, 大西暁生, 井村秀文

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 39 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 130 - 131 2010年3月

都市の空間配置と二酸化炭素排出構造の関係に関する研究査読有り

奥岡桂次郎, 大西暁生, 高島健志, 平野勇二郎, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹, 井村秀文

環境情報科学 = Environmental information science 39 巻 ( 1 ) 頁： 136 - 137 2010年3月

503 低炭素・低物質社会構築に向けた都市シミュレータの開発 : 名古屋市の住宅及び商業・業務建物を対象として(E.都市計画) 査読有り

大西暁生, 高平洋祐, 平川隆之, 谷川寛樹, 井村秀文

東海支部研究報告集 ( 48 ) 頁： 497 - 500 2010年2月

“ストック型”かつ“低炭素型”社会へ向けた都市構造物の物質・エネルギー消費の4Dマッピング: 名古屋市の建築物を対象としたケーススタディ査読有り

谷川寛樹，大西暁生，高平洋祐，橋本征二，東修，白川博章，井村秀文

日本LCA学会誌 6 巻 ( 2 ) 頁： 92-101 2010年2月

都市重量の計測と持続可能性評価(キャンパスノート) 査読有り

前新将, 平川隆之, 谷川寛樹

Finex 22 巻 ( 130 ) 頁： 52 - 53 2010年

名古屋市の日常生活におけるライフスタイルと消費パターン査読有り

文多美, 谷川寛樹, 中西仁美, 井村秀文

日本LCA学会研究発表会講演要旨集 2010 巻 ( 0 ) 頁： 208-208 2010年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

本研究は，産業化と都市化という社会変化が進んでいる中で，モノ・サービスの消費中心の生活スタイルを持つ都市の一つである名古屋市の居住者を対象にアンケート調査を実施し，日常生活上で行われるライフスタイルとエネルギー消費パターンとを調査すると同時に，低炭素都市に向けたCO2排出への影響について論じる．本研究を通じて，名古屋市での社会変化の推移に伴う名古屋市住民の生活におけるライフスタイルの現状を明確にし，日常生活におけるエネルギー消費パターンを分析した．これらの結果を踏まえ，家庭部門での低炭素型ライフスタイルの達成可能性に関する研究を今後の課題にする．

DOI： 10.11539/ilcaj.2010.0.208.0

中国における交通インフラ建設に伴うマテリアルストックに関する研究査読有り

黄韜, 石峰, 費金玲, 谷川寛樹, 井村秀文

環境情報科学論文集 ceis24 巻 ( 0 ) 頁： 149 - 154 2010年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：一般社団法人環境情報科学センター

近年，中国は莫大なインフラ整備，特に鉄道や高速道路などの交通部門のインフラ整備を行っている。そこで本研究は，中国の交通インフラとして鉄道及び道路に着目し，1993年から2007年までのマテリアルストックを計算した。その結果，鉄道および道路の鋼鉄，セメント，砂及び砂利のストック量が明らかとなった。鉄道施設については，木材ストックは減少し，鉄鋼ストックは1.5倍，セメントのストックは2.1倍，砂利石材のストックは1.6倍に増加した。一方，道路施設については，鉄鋼ストックが18倍，セメントは2.8倍に増加したことが明らかになった。

DOI： 10.11492/ceispapers.ceis24.0.149.0

“ストック型”かつ“低炭素型”社会へ向けた都市構造物の物質・エネルギー消費の4Dマッピング:名古屋市の建築物を対象としたケーススタディ

谷川寛樹, 大西暁生, 高平洋祐, 橋本征二, 東修, 白川博章, 井村秀文

日本LCA学会誌 6 巻 ( 2 ) 頁： 92 - 101 2010年

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：日本LCA学会

Low carbon emission and less material input are the key factor of urban / regional environment planning. Construction sector use approximately half weight of material input of Japanese society. Successive estimation of Material Stock and Energy Consumption leads to clarify level of sustainability. The object of this paper is to clarify contribution of GIS for material stock and energy flow accounts. Material Stock and energy consumption of urban infrastructure in the near future were estimated using model with 4-D GIS (fourth dimensions geographical information systems), which includes spatial 3-D GIS with time scale. With using Historical Spatial Information, we could know successive change of material stock, energy consumption and CO2 emission, life span of urban structures, and future projection of material and energy balance of city.

DOI： 10.3370/lca.6.92

Framework for estimating potential wastes and secondary resources accumulated within an economy - A case study of construction minerals in Japan 査読有り

4d-GISを用いた都市重量の変化と建設資材のリサイクル性に関する検討

谷川寛樹, 山末英嗣, 稲津亮, 前新将

土木学会環境システム研究論文集 38 巻 ( 9 ) 頁： 413-419 2010年

4D-GISを用いた都市重量の変化と建設資材のTMR指標によるリサイクル性に関する研究査読有り

谷川寛樹

環境システム研究論文集 38 巻頁： 413 - 419 2010年

都市重量の計測と持続可能性評価査読有り

谷川寛樹

建築仕上学会FINEX 22 巻頁： 52 - 53 2010年

都市圏における人口配分と二酸化炭素排出構造の関係査読有り

奥岡桂次郎, 谷川寛樹

環境システム研究論文集 38 巻頁： 277 - 288 2010年

家計消費支出構造からみた日・韓・中ライフスタイルの変遷とCO2排出量への影響の考察査読有り

谷川寛樹

第38回環境システム研究論文発表会講演集 38 巻頁： 7 - 12 2010年

Analysis on Evolution Tendency of Urban Energy System Structure in Shanghai City 査読有り

谷川寛樹

12th International Summer Symposium, JSCE 12 巻頁： 331 - 334 2010年

A Study on Socio-Economic Inpacts of a Sustainable Energy Flow System in the Philippines 査読有り

谷川寛樹

第38回環境システム研究論文発表会講演集 38 巻頁： 413 - 418 2010年

Industrial structure change and CO2 emission associated with infrastructure development in China 査読有り

谷川寛樹

Environmental System Research Vol.38 頁： 301 - 307 2010年

全国都道府県・政令都市における建設資材ストックの集積・分布傾向に関する研究査読有り

長岡耕平, 谷川寛樹, 吉田登, 東修, 大西暁生, 石峰, 井村秀文

環境情報科学論文集 23 巻頁： in press 2009年11月

担当区分：筆頭著者記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

高度経済成長期に大量に蓄積された都市構造物の多くが耐用年数を迎え,今後廃棄物が大量に発生すると予想される.持続可能な社会を構築するためには廃棄物のフローや資材の投入量を少なく抑える必要がある.このため計画的に解体や撤去,修繕をするために,都市構造物の資材別でのストックを把握する必要がある.そこで本研究では建築物・道路・下水道を対象に都市構造物ストックを統計データにより推計し,GDP などの経済成長によりストックの集積・分布の傾向を明らかにする.結果,ストック密度は全国 116(kg/m2),政令都市 358(kg/m2)と面積あたりでは政令都市が大きい結果となった.現状においてはストック密度と経済状況の関係に多様な経済要因が作用していることが確認された.

複数年の空間情報を用いた都市重量の変化に関する研究－建築物・道路を対象とした和歌山市中心部でのケーススタディ－査読有り

稲津亮, 谷川寛樹, 大西暁生, 東修, 石峰, 井村秀文

環境情報科学論文集 23 巻頁： 89-94 2009年11月

担当区分：筆頭著者記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

都市の成長に伴い，過去から現在にかけて大量の建設資材が投入されてきており，近い将来大量の建設副産物が発生することが予測されているが，再利用先の減少により，排出量と投入量のバランスの崩壊が危惧されている．そこで，空間情報を用い，過去から現在までの資材蓄積量を推計した．さらに，用途地域ごとに耐用年数を推計し，将来のマテリアルバランスの予測を行った．その結果，建築物からの排出量が2030年には290万トン，道路建設に投入される物質投入量が12万トンと推計され，排出量が投入量を約24倍を上回ることが明らかとなった．

*Framework for estimating potential wastes and secondary resources accumulated within an economy - A case study of construction minerals in Japan 査読有り

Seiji Hashimoto; Hiroki Tanikawa; Yuichi Moriguchi

Waste Management 29 巻 ( 11 ) 頁： 2859-2866 2009年11月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

Material stocks in economic society are considered to represent a reserve for wastes and secondary resources. From the viewpoints of proper disposal and reutilization of stocked materials, accurate estima- tion of the amount of materials that will emerge as wastes or secondary resources in the future is impor- tant. We defined materials that have a high probability of emerging as wastes or secondary resources as ``potential wastes and secondary resources" and estimated that amount for construction minerals in Japan as a case study. The following conclusions were drawn. (1) We classified materials that are input into economic society into four categories: potential wastes and secondary resources, potential dissipated materials, dissipatively used materials, and permanent structures. By clarifying the latter three non- potential wastes and secondary resources, we performed a more accurate assessment of the wastes and secondary resources that will emerge in the future. (2) The share of potential wastes and secondary resources was estimated to be about 30% of all construction minerals that have been input into and accu- mulated in Japanese economic society. (3) Information related to potential dissipated materials and dis- sipatively used materials will provide fundamental knowledge to support analyses of the environmental impacts and resource losses which these materials might generate.

Hashimoto, S; Tanikawa, H; Moriguchi, Y

WASTE MANAGEMENT 29 巻 ( 11 ) 頁： 2859 - 2866 2009年11月

４d-GISによる用途地域変更を考慮した建築物耐用年数の推計査読有り

寺南智弘，谷川寛樹，深堀秀敏

環境システム研究論文集 37 巻頁： 221-226 2009年10月

担当区分：筆頭著者記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

高度経済成長期に大量投入されてきた建築物が更新時期を迎えるため，今後大量の建築副産物が発生す
ると危惧される．そこで，これまでにも統計情報を用いた耐用年数や建築資材蓄積量の推計が行なわれて
きた．しかし，統計情報からは建築物の滅失要因を特定することが困難であるという課題がある．本研究
では，より詳細に耐用年数・建築資材蓄積量を求めるためにGISを用い，地理情報の１つである用途地域
を考慮した推計を行なう．推計結果より，住居系用途地域における平均耐用年数は木造建築で35.1年，非
木造建築で27.2年となった．商業系用途地域においては木造建築が29.3年，非木造建築が21.1年となった．
また，工業系用途地域においては木造建築で21.9年，非木造建築で24.1年という結果が得られた．

全国の都道府県における地上と地下のマテリアルストック推計に関する研究査読有り

長岡耕平，稲津亮，東岸芳浩，谷川寛樹，橋本征二

環境システム研究論文集 37 巻頁： 213-220 2009年10月

担当区分：筆頭著者記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

高度経済成長期に大量に蓄積された都市構造物の多くが耐用年数を迎え，今後廃棄物が大量に発生すると予想される．持続可能な社会を構築するためには廃棄物のフローや物質の投入量を少なく抑える必要がある．このため計画的に解体や撤去，修繕を行なう際，都市構造物の物質別でのストックを把握する必要がある．そこで本研究では，建築物・道路・下水道を対象に構造物の地上と地下へ投入，蓄積される資材量を統計データを用いて推計し，地上のストック量及び人間の目には触れない地下のストック量を明らかにする．その結果，1975年全体の地上ストックは25億トン，地下ストックは30億トンで，2005年の地上ストックは60億トン，地下ストックは76億トンであった．1975年と2005年のストック総量を比較すると2.5倍増加していることが分かった．

低炭素都市実現に向けたシミュレータの開発

大西暁生, 高平洋祐, 谷川寛樹, 井村秀文

都市計画報告集 8 巻 ( 2 ) 頁： 84 - 87 2009年9月

記述言語：日本語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：公益社団法人日本都市計画学会

低炭素都市の実現には，人口の多くが住み，社会経済活動の主舞台である都市における取り組み，とりわけ民生部門・交通部門での対策が重要である．またこのような都市の低炭素化には中長期的なビジョンを持った都市計画や国土計画の役割が重要となる．そのため本研究では，まず名古屋市の民生部門を対象に，都市空間の再編及び省エネ技術導入に伴うCO2排出量の削減効果を評価するためのシミュレータを作成する．具体的には，人口及び土地・住宅・業務建物利用などのデータを用いることによって2000年から2050年までの民生（家庭・業務）部門からのエネルギー消費量及びCO2排出量を500m格子ごとに推計する．これによって，都市空間の再編及び省エネ技術導入の違いが，エネルギー消費量及びCO2排出量の削減にどの程度効果があるのかが時空間で把握できる．

DOI： 10.11361/reportscpij.8.2_84

全国都道府県・政令都市における建設資材ストックの集積・分布傾向に関する研究査読有り

Urbanization and subsurface environmental issues: An attempt at DPSIR model application in Asian cities 査読有り

Jago-on, KAB; Kaneko, S; Fujikura, R; Fujiwara, A; Imai, T; Matsumoto, T; Zhang, JY; Tanikawa, H; Tanaka, K; Lee, B; Taniguchi, M

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 407 巻 ( 9 ) 頁： 3089 - 3104 2009年4月

*Urbanization and subsurface environmental issues: An attempt at DPSIR model application in Asian cities 査読有り

Karen Ann Bianet Jago-ona, Shinji Kaneko, Ryo Fujikura, Akimasa Fujiwara, Tsuyoshi Imai, Toru Matsumoto, Junyi Zhang, Hiroki Tanikawa, Katsuya Tanaka, Backjin Lee and Makoto Taniguchi

Science of The Total Environment 頁： 3089-3104 2009年1月

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）

This paper synthesizes existing information and knowledge on subsurface environments to understand the major cause and effect relationships of subsurface environmental issues by using the DPSIR (Driving force–Pressure–Status–Impact–Response) approach as the framework of analysis. Description is given to the major subsurface environmental issues common among the selected Asian cities (Bangkok, Jakarta, Manila, Osaka, Seoul, Taipei and Tokyo), such as excessive groundwater abstraction, land subsidence and groundwater contamination. The DPSIR framework is used to analyze the issues and problems of subsurface in key stages and suggestions are made for additional indicators to improve our description of the stages of urban development for the future.

長岡耕平, 谷川寛樹, 吉田登, 東修, 大西暁生, 石峰, 井村秀文

環境情報科学論文集 ceis23 巻 ( 0 ) 頁： 83 - 88 2009年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：一般社団法人環境情報科学センター

高度経済成長期に大量に蓄積された都市構造物の多くが耐用年数を迎え，今後廃棄物が大量に発生すると予想される。持続可能な社会を構築するためには廃棄物のフローや資材の投入量を少なく抑える必要がある。このため計画的に解体や撤去，修繕をするために，都市構造物の資材別でのストックを把握する必要がある。そこで本研究では建築物・道路・下水道を対象に都市構造物ストックを統計データにより推計し，GDP などの経済成長によりストックの集積・分布の傾向を明らかにする。結果，ストック密度は全国116（kg/m2），政令都市358（kg/m2）と面積あたりでは政令都市が大きい結果となった。現状においてはストック密度と経済状況の関係に多様な経済要因が作用していることが確認された。

DOI： 10.11492/ceispapers.ceis23.0.83.0

複数年の空間情報を用いた都市重量の変化に関する研究査読有り

稲津亮, 谷川寛樹, 大西暁生, 東修, 石峰, 井村秀文

環境情報科学論文集 ceis23 巻 ( 0 ) 頁： 89 - 94 2009年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：一般社団法人環境情報科学センター

都市の成長に伴い，過去から現在にかけて大量の建設資材が投入されてきており，近い将来大量の建設副産物が発生することが予測されているが，再利用先の減少により，排出量と投入量のバランスの崩壊が危惧されている。そこで，空間情報を用い，過去から現在までの資材蓄積量を推計した。さらに，用途地域ごとに耐用年数を推計し，将来のマテリアルバランスの予測を行った。その結果，建築物からの排出量が2030 年には290 万トン，道路建設に投入される物質投入量が12 万トンと推計され，排出量が投入量を約24 倍を上回ることが明らかとなった。

DOI： 10.11492/ceispapers.ceis23.0.89.0

産業廃棄物における広域移動マイレージの経年変化構造とマイレージ削減可能性の分析査読有り

佐藤雅俊, 吉田登, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学論文集 ceis23 巻 ( 0 ) 頁： 297 - 302 2009年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：一般社団法人環境情報科学センター

本研究では，近年，距離，搬出量ともに増加しつつある産業廃棄物を対象に，移動量に移動距離を乗じたものを広域移動マイレージと定義し，がれき類，汚泥，ばいじん，鉱さい，廃プラ，廃油，木くずの７種類の廃棄物の広域移動マイレージの経年的な変化について考察を行った。さらに，汚泥及び木くずについて受け皿となる生産インフラや処理設備の能力をもとに，全国の総広域移動マイレージの削減可能性について線形計画モデルを用いて分析した結果，広域移動マイレージを汚泥では最大約8割，木くずでは最大約6 割の削減が可能であることを明らかにした。

DOI： 10.11492/ceispapers.ceis23.0.297.0

Urban stock over time: spatial material stock analysis using 4d-GIS 査読有り

Tanikawa, H; Hashimoto, S

BUILDING RESEARCH AND INFORMATION 37 巻 ( 5-6 ) 頁： 483 - 502 2009年

記述言語：英語掲載種別：研究論文（学術雑誌）出版者・発行元：Building Research and Information

A huge amount of construction material is required in urban areas for developing and maintaining buildings and infrastructure. Ageing stocks, which were built during a period of rapid growth in Japan (1955-1973), will cause a new waste flow in the near future. In order to assess urban metabolism with regard to building and infrastructure, it is necessary to understand change in its material accumulation both 'spatially' and 'temporally'. In this analysis, material accumulation over time is elucidated using four-dimensional Geographical Information Systems (4d-GIS) data at an urban scale. An approximately 8km2 urban area of Salford in Manchester, UK, and 11km2 of Wakayama City centre, Japan, were selected as case study sites. In this analysis, the material stock of buildings, roadways and railways was estimated locally over time, using a 4d-GIS database: (1) to find the spatial distribution of construction materials over time, (2) to estimate the demolition curve of buildings based on characteristics of an area, and (3) to clarify material accumulation with vertical location, such as above and below ground, from the viewpoint of recyclability. By estimation of the demolition curve, the life span of buildings in an urban area was found to be shorter than the national average respectively at both sites: 81 years in the urban area of Salford compared with 128 years for the UK; and 28 years in Wakayama City centre compared with the Japanese national average of 40 years. In 2004, 47% of total construction material was stocked in underground infrastructure in Wakayama City centre.

DOI： 10.1080/09613210903169394