Updated on 2024/04/24

写真a

 
SHIRAKI Hiroto
 
Organization
Graduate School of Environmental Studies Department of Environmental Engineering and Architecture Land, Infrastructure and Transportation Management Associate professor
Graduate School
Graduate School of Environmental Studies
Undergraduate School
School of Engineering Architecture
Title
Associate professor

Degree 2

  1. 博士(環境学) ( 2014.3   東京大学 ) 

  2. 修士(環境学) ( 2011.3   東京大学 ) 

Research Interests 5

  1. Energy consumption behavior analysis

  2. Technological and economic assessment of climate change mitigation measures

  3. Carbon neutral society

  4. Power and energy system analysis using mathematical models

  5. Energy system analysis

Research Areas 3

  1. Environmental Science/Agriculture Science / Environmental policy and social systems

  2. Environmental Science/Agriculture Science / Environmental impact assessment

  3. Energy Engineering / Earth resource engineering, Energy sciences

Current Research Project and SDGs 1

  1. 気候変動緩和技術の導入可能性分析

Research History 5

  1. Nagoya University   Associate professor

    2023.4

  2. 国立環境研究所   社会環境システム研究センター   客員研究員

    2019.4

  3. The University of Shiga Prefecture   School of Environmental Science Department of Environmental Policy and Planning   Assistant Professor

    2019.4 - 2023.3

  4. The University of Shiga Prefecture   School of Environmental Science Department of Environmental Policy and Planning   Assistant Professor

    2016.10 - 2019.3

  5. National Institute for Environmental Studies   Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research   Research Associate

    2014.4 - 2016.9

Education 2

  1. The University of Tokyo

    2011.4 - 2014.3

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    Country: Japan

  2. The University of Tokyo

    2009.4 - 2011.3

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    Country: Japan

Awards 3

  1. 学生発表賞

    2014.6   エネルギー・資源学会  

    白木裕斗, 芦名秀一, 亀山康子, 森口祐一

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    Award type:Award from Japanese society, conference, symposium, etc.  Country:Japan

  2. 専攻長賞

    2011.3   東京大学大学院新領域創成科学研究科 環境システム学専攻  

    白木裕斗

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    Country:Japan

  3. Outstanding Paper Award

    2008.10   第8回分離技術国際会議  

    Shiraki, H, Watanabe, N, Nagayoshi, H, Gates, J, Kato, I

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    Award type:Award from international society, conference, symposium, etc.  Country:Japan

 

Papers 49

  1. Perceived feasibility and potential barriers of a net-zero system transition among Japanese experts Reviewed

    Ju, YY; Sugiyama, M; Shiraki, H

    COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT   Vol. 4 ( 1 )   2023.11

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    Authorship:Corresponding author   Language:English  

    DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-01079-8

    Web of Science

  2. Alternative, but expensive, energy transition scenario featuring carbon capture and utilization can preserve existing energy demand technologies Reviewed

    Oshiro, K; Fujimori, S; Hasegawa, T; Asayama, S; Shiraki, H; Takahashi, K

    ONE EARTH   Vol. 6 ( 7 ) page: 872 - 883   2023.7

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.06.005

    Web of Science

  3. エネルギー教育の方法と児童の知識習得・省エネ行動との関係に関する研究 Reviewed

    高鍋 彩, 白木 裕斗

    土木学会論文集   Vol. 79 ( 5 )   2023.5

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    Authorship:Last author, Corresponding author   Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.2208/jscejj.22-00270

  4. TECHNO-ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF INTRODUCING SYNTHETIC FUELS IN THE MUNICIPLE SCALE DECARBONIZATION SCENARIO: A CASE OF KUSHIRO, HOKKAIDO, JAPAN

    ITO Yuta, SHIRAKI Hiroto

    Japanese Journal of JSCE   Vol. 79 ( 27 ) page: n/a   2023

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    Authorship:Last author   Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Japan Society of Civil Engineers  

    <p> This study simulated energy systems that could achieve carbon neutrality in 2050 for Kushiro City, Hokkaido, Japan, using an energy system model which can take into account the use of synthetic fuels and regional characteristics. The results show that a scenario with no emission reduction targets could reduce CO<sub>2</sub> emissions by 61% from 2015 levels, and even a scenario without synthetic fuels could reduce emissions by 80% from 2015 levels through aggressive mitigation measures. Key mitigation measures in the mitigation scenario included the introduction of solar photovoltaics in the residential sector, the substitution to LP gas in the industrial sector, and the promotion of electrification in the transportation sector. The study also showed that carbon neutrality in 2050 could be achieved by using synthetic fuels to meet the energy demand that should be supplied by liquid and gaseous fuels, i.e., space heating in the cold region and industrial heat. Policies that encourage the cost reduction of synthetic fuels are key to decarbonizing cold regions and industrial clusters, where the demand for liquid and gaseous fuels may remain.</p>

    DOI: 10.2208/jscejj.23-27038

    CiNii Research

  5. 籾殻ガス化発電システムのライフサイクルアセスメント Reviewed

    國武 星佑, 白木 裕斗, 吉川 直樹

    土木学会論文集G(環境)   Vol. 78 ( 5 ) page: I_87 - I_94   2022

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

  6. バイオマスエネルギーに着目した自治体レベルでのCO2大幅削減シナリオの検討 ー岡山県真庭市と対象としてー Reviewed

    中間 蒼, 白木 裕斗

    土木学会論文集G(環境)   Vol. 78 ( 5 ) page: I_441 - I_449   2022

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

  7. Correction to: EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings (Sustainability Science, (2021), 16, 2, (355-374), 10.1007/s11625-021-00913-2)

    Sugiyama M, Fujimori S, Wada K, Oshiro K, Kato E, Komiyama R, Silva Herran D, Matsuo Y, Shiraki H., Ju Y

    Sustainability Science   Vol. 16 ( 5 ) page: 1771 - 1771   2021.9

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    Language:English   Publisher:Sustainability Science  

    In the original publication of the article, data availability was missing and it is provided in this correction. The scenario data is available at https:// doi. org/ 10. 5281/ zenodo. 48176 56.

    DOI: 10.1007/s11625-021-00992-1

    Web of Science

    Scopus

  8. Correction to: The role of renewables in the Japanese power sector: implications from the EMF35 JMIP (Sustainability Science, (2021), 10.1007/s11625-021-00917-y)

    Shiraki H, Sugiyama M, Matsuo Y, Komiyama R, Fujimori S, Kato E, Oshiro K, Silva D.H

    Sustainability Science   Vol. 16 ( 2 ) page: 393 - 393   2021.3

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    Language:English   Publisher:Sustainability Science  

    © 2021, The Author(s). In the original publication of the article, the incorrect file was published as supplementary material. The supplementary file “Supplementary file1” has been replaced. The original article has been updated.

    DOI: 10.1007/s11625-021-00934-x

    Web of Science

  9. EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings Reviewed

    Sugiyama M, Fujimori S, Wada K, Oshiro K, Kato E, Komiyama R, Silva Herran D, Matsuo Y, Shiraki H., Ju Y

    Sustainability Science   Vol. 16 ( 2 ) page: 355 - 374   2021.3

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Sustainability Science  

    © 2021, The Author(s). In June, 2019, Japan submitted its mid-century strategy to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and pledged 80% emissions cuts by 2050. The strategy has not gone through a systematic analysis, however. The present study, Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), employs five energy-economic and integrated assessment models to evaluate the nationally determined contribution and mid-century strategy of Japan. EMF 35 JMIP conducts a suite of sensitivity analyses on dimensions including emissions constraints, technology availability, and demand projections. The results confirm that Japan needs to deploy all of its mitigation strategies at a substantial scale, including energy efficiency, electricity decarbonization, and end-use electrification. Moreover, they suggest that with the absence of structural changes in the economy, heavy industries will be one of the hardest to decarbonize. Partitioning of the sum of squares based on a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) reconfirms that mitigation strategies, such as energy efficiency and electrification, are fairly robust across models and scenarios, but that the cost metrics are uncertain. There is a wide gap of policy strength and breadth between the current policy instruments and those suggested by the models. Japan should strengthen its climate action in all aspects of society and economy to achieve its long-term target.

    DOI: 10.1007/s11625-021-00913-2

    Web of Science

    PubMed

  10. The role of renewables in the Japanese power sector: implications from the EMF35 JMIP Reviewed

    Shiraki H, Sugiyama M, Matsuo Y, Komiyama R, Fujimori S, Kato E, Oshiro K, Silva D.H

    Sustainability Science   Vol. 16 ( 2 ) page: 375 - 392   2021.3

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Sustainability Science  

    © 2021, The Author(s). The Japanese power system has unique characteristics with regard to variable renewable energies (VREs), such as higher costs, lower potentials, and less flexibility with the grid connection compared to other major greenhouse-gas-emitting countries. We analyzed the role of renewable energies (REs) in the future Japanese power sector using the results from the model intercomparison project Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison Project (JMIP) using varying emission reduction targets and key technological conditions across scenarios. We considered the uncertainties for future capital costs of solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and batteries in addition to the availability of nuclear and carbon dioxide capture and storage. The results show that REs supply more than 40% of electricity in most of the technology sensitivity scenarios (median 51.0%) when assuming an 80% emission reduction in 2050. The results (excluding scenarios that assume the continuous growth of nuclear power and/or the abundant availability of domestic biomass and carbon-free hydrogen) show that the median VRE shares reach 52.2% in 2050 in the 80% emission reduction scenario. On the contrary, the availability of newly constructed nuclear power, affordable biomass, and carbon-free hydrogen can reduce dependence on VREs to less than 20%. The policy costs were much more sensitive to the capital costs and resource potential of VREs than the battery cost uncertainties. Specifically, while the doubled capital costs of VRE resulted in a 13.0% (inter-model median) increase in the policy cost, the halved capital costs of VREs reduced 8.7% (inter-model median) of the total policy cost. These results imply that lowering the capital costs of VREs would be effective in achieving a long-term emission reduction target considering the current high Japanese VRE costs.

    DOI: 10.1007/s11625-021-00917-y

    Web of Science

  11. 住宅に対する住民評価の要因分析 - 省エネ性の影響 - Reviewed

    藤本穂乃佳, 白木裕斗, 村上一真

    土木学会論文集G(環境)   Vol. 77 ( 5 ) page: I_331 - I_339   2021

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

  12. Back to the basic: toward improvement of technoeconomic representation in integrated assessment models Reviewed

    Shiraki H, Sugiyama M

    Climatic Change   Vol. 162 ( 1 ) page: 13 - 24   2020.9

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Climatic Change  

    © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. With the shift of climate debate from understanding to actions, the use of integrated assessment models (IAMs) is gradually expanding. Since IAMs produce least-cost pathways, technoeconomic parameters constitute one of the basic parameters. Traditionally, IAMs dealt with technologies with slowly-changing, relatively homogeneous manner. Since technologies are rapidly evolving, and the pattern of technological development is regionally heterogeneous, the IAM community must embrace a new strategy to treat their underlying technoeconomic parameters. Here we illustrate such challenges by reviewing the treatment and performance of IAMs with respect to some of the rapidly changing technologies (e.g., solar, wind, and batteries). Our review shows that IAMs have difficulty in updating the cost of the rapidly changing technologies. We then articulate a new strategy, drawing upon the lesson from the current model intercomparison projects and climate sciences. We argue that a loose network of modeling groups across the globe should create a database of technological parameters in a standardized format and standard evaluation tool, perhaps to be facilitated by the IAM Consortium. Such a framework would contribute to the review of the progress toward the Paris Agreement goals.

    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02731-4

    Web of Science

    Scopus

  13. Factors affecting CO<inf>2</inf> emissions from private automobiles in Japan: The impact of vehicle occupancy Reviewed

    Shiraki H, Matsumoto K, Shigetomi Y, Ehara T, Ochi Y, Ogawa Y

    Applied Energy   Vol. 259   2020.2

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Applied Energy  

    © 2019 Elsevier Ltd The road transport sector accounted for 18.8% of global CO2 emissions in 2016. Regional efforts are indispensable for reducing automobile emissions, especially considering the diversity in regional transportation systems. Existing studies of automobile emissions have focused on nationwide transportation systems or differences in city size without considering regionality and long-term changes in vehicle occupancy. In this study, we decomposed national and regional automobile emissions in Japan between 1990 and 2015 by the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method. Statistical data that took vehicle occupancy into account were used. Results showed that nationwide vehicle occupancy increased (due to increased vehicle size and vehicle ownership), which increased emissions by 15.2% compared to 1990 levels. In highly populated regions, fuel efficiency decreased earlier than other regions thanks to the strengthening of ordinances regarding air pollution. In Western Japan, which includes less-populated prefectures, the rising popularity of mini-vehicles resulted in increased vehicle ownership and a decrease in occupancy but also led to improvements in fuel economy. To reduce automobile CO2 emissions, it will be essential to improve fuel efficiency and to increase vehicle occupancy through mechanisms, such as ridesharing and vehicle right sizing.

    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114196

    Web of Science

  14. factors affecting willingness to introduce electric vehicles in companies Reviewed

    Shiraki, H, M, Sato, K, Murakami

      Vol. 76 ( 5 ) page: I_187 - I_195   2020

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

  15. Energy transformation cost for the Japanese mid-century strategy Reviewed

    Fujimori S, Oshiro K, Shiraki H, Hasegawa T

    Nature Communications   Vol. 10 ( 1 ) page: 4737   2019.10

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Nature Communications  

    © 2019, The Author(s). The costs of climate change mitigation policy are one of the main concerns in decarbonizing the economy. The macroeconomic and sectoral implications of policy interventions are typically estimated by economic models, which tend be higher than the additional energy system costs projected by energy system models. Here, we show the extent to which policy costs can be lower than those from conventional economic models by integrating an energy system and an economic model, applying Japan’s mid-century climate mitigation target. The GDP losses estimated with the integrated model were significantly lower than those in the conventional economic model by more than 50% in 2050. The representation of industry and service sector energy consumption is the main factor causing these differences. Our findings suggest that this type of integrated approach would contribute new insights by providing improved estimates of GDP losses, which can be critical information for setting national climate policies.

    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12730-4

    Web of Science

    PubMed

  16. Japan's long-term climate mitigation policy: Multi-model assessment and sectoral challenges Reviewed

    Sugiyama M, Fujimori S, Wada K, Endo S, Fujii Y, Komiyama R, Kato E, Kurosawa A, Matsuo Y, Oshiro K, Sano F, Shiraki H

    Energy   Vol. 167   page: 1120 - 1131   2019.1

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Energy  

    © 2018 The Authors Japan is the sixth largest greenhouse gas emitter in 2016 and plays an important role to attain the long-term climate goals of the Paris Agreement. One of the key policy issues in Japan's energy and environmental policy arena is the energy system transition to achieve 80% emissions reduction in 2050, a current policy goal set in 2016. To contribute to the ongoing policy debate, this paper focuses on energy-related CO 2 emissions and analyzes such decarbonization scenarios that are consistent with the government goals. We employ six energy-economic and integrated assessment models to reveal decarbonization challenges in the energy system. The modeling results show that Japan's mitigation scenarios are characterized by high marginal costs of abatement. They also suggest that the industrial sector is likely to have a large final energy share and significant residual emissions under the 80% reduction scenario, though it is generally thought that the transport sector would have large decarbonization challenges. The present findings imply that not only energy policy but also industrial policy may be relevant to the long-term environmental target. Given the high marginal costs exceeding those of negative emissions technologies that could place a cost ceiling, further model development would be crucial.

    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.10.091

    Web of Science

  17. Addressing Key Drivers of Regional CO<sub>2</sub> Emissions of the Manufacturing Industry in Japan

    Matsumoto, K; Shigetomi, Y; Shiraki, H; Ochi, Y; Ogawa, Y; Ehara, T

    ENERGY JOURNAL   Vol. 40   page: 233 - 258   2019

  18. Addressing Key Drivers of Regional CO2 Emissions of the Manufacturing Industry in Japan Reviewed

    Ken’ichi Matsumoto, Yosuke Shigetomi, Hiroto Shiraki, Yuki Ochi, Yuki Ogawa, Tomoki Ehara

    The Energy Journal   Vol. 40 ( 1 )   2019

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

  19. Driving forces underlying sub-national carbon dioxide emissions within the household sector and implications for the Paris Agreement targets in Japan Reviewed

    Shigetomi Y, Matsumoto K, Ogawa Y, Shiraki H, Yamamoto Y, Ochi Y, Ehara T

    Applied Energy   Vol. 228   page: 2321 - 2332   2018.10

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Applied Energy  

    © 2018 Elsevier Ltd This study investigated insights into reducing energy-related CO2 emissions in households by examining individual socio-economic drivers at a sub-national level. Specifically, the logarithmic mean Divisia index technique was used to decompose CO2 emission trends into six drivers in all 47 prefectures of Japan during the period from 1990 to 2015. Drivers included the change in the number of households (household effect), distribution of households (distribution effect), household size (size effect), per-capita household energy consumption (consumption effect), household energy choice (choice effect), and sectoral CO2 emission intensity (intensity effect). The results showed that, in contrast to size and the distribution effects, the number of households had a positive, significant effect on CO2 emissions, indicating that recent demographic trends are responsible for the increase in CO2 emissions observed in most of the prefectures during the study period. With regard to effects related to consumption and choice, CO2 emissions due to changes in lifestyle dropped in only seven prefectures and reductions due to changes in sectoral energy choice were seen in only two prefectures in 2015. The intensity effect boosted the emissions of these prefectures the most in 2015 because of the shutdown of nuclear power plants due to the Great East Japan Earthquake. Further, we identified those prefectures that needed to reduce their per-capita energy consumption level in order to attain the reduction targets for household CO2 emissions in 2030 from 2015, given projected changes in demographic trends and recent and projected emission intensities. In order to achieve reductions in total CO2 emissions in line with the Paris Agreement, it is important to prioritize national and local policy interventions for the transfer of new household energy technologies, upgrade household appliances, and encourage people to limit energy consumption in light of the differences in these key drivers in each prefecture.

    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.07.057

    Web of Science

  20. Energy security performance in Japan under different socioeconomic and energy conditions Reviewed

    Matsumoto K, Shiraki H

    Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews   Vol. 90   page: 391 - 401   2018.7

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews  

    © 2018 Elsevier Ltd A secure energy supply is indispensable for Japan's economic activity, but it is becoming more difficult to attain, due to increasing energy demand in emerging countries. The pattern of socioeconomic development and the achievement of a low-carbon society are also strongly related to energy security. This study evaluated energy security performance in Japan under alternative scenarios of future socioeconomic and energy conditions by applying three energy security indicators derived from the Shannon-Wiener diversity index. The 2050 Japan Low Carbon Navigator was used to estimate energy structures under five socioeconomic scenarios and three selected combinations of effort levels toward producing a low-carbon society. It was found that the effort levels were the most influential factors in determining energy security performance, because they greatly affect energy supply and demand. The choice of socioeconomic scenario was also influential, although the impact of this choice was less significant than the choice of effort level. However, the impact of country-risk indicators is less substantial than the above two factors. The energy security performance of Japan will improve in the future, compared with the current level. However, if the country pursues further economic growth, its energy security performance will not greatly improve. Consequently, increasing efforts to achieve a low-carbon society will contribute to the realization of a highly energy-secure society with respect to Japan's current and future socioeconomic situation.

    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2018.03.070

    Web of Science

  21. Dynamic linear modeling of monthly electricity demand in Japan: Time variation of electricity conservation effect

    Honjo, K; Shiraki, H; Ashina, S

    PLOS ONE   Vol. 13 ( 4 ) page: e0196331   2018.4

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  22. ESTIMATION OF FLEXIBILITY RESOURCES FOR POWER SYSTEM STABILIZATION UNDER A LONG-TERM LOW CARBON SCENARIO Reviewed

    SHIRAKI Hiroto, OSHIRO Ken, FUJIMORI Shinichiro, HASEGAWA Tomoko

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research)   Vol. 74 ( 5 ) page: I_369 - I_378   2018

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:公益社団法人 土木学会  

  23. AN ASSESSMENT OF JAPAN'S LONG-TERM GREENHOUSE EMISSIONS REDUCTION TARGET USING AN INTEGRATED ECONOMIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL MODEL Reviewed

    FUJIMORI Shinichiro, OSHIRO Ken, SHIRAKI Hiroto, HASEGAWA Tomoko

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research)   Vol. 74 ( 5 ) page: I_213 - I_222   2018

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:公益社団法人 土木学会  

  24. Dynamic linear modeling of monthly electricity demand in Japan: Time variation of electricity conservation effect Reviewed

    Keita Honjo, Hiroto Shiraki, Shuichi Ashina

    PloS one   Vol. 13 ( 4 )   2018

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  25. The impacts on climate mitigation costs of considering curtailment and storage of variable renewable energy in a general equilibrium model

    Dai, HC; Fujimori, S; Herran, DS; Shiraki, H; Masui, T; Matsuoka, Y

    ENERGY ECONOMICS   Vol. 64   page: 627 - 637   2017.5

  26. Estimating the hourly electricity profile of Japanese households – Coupling of engineering and statistical methods Reviewed

    Shiraki, H, Nakamura, S, Ashina, S, Honjo, K

    Energy   Vol. 114   page: 478 - 491   2016.11

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Elsevier BV  

    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.08.019

    Web of Science

  27. Analysis of optimal locations for power stations and their impact on industrial symbiosis planning under transition toward low-carbon power sector in Japan

    Shiraki, H; Ashina, S; Kameyama, Y; Hashimoto, S; Fujita, T

    JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION   Vol. 114   page: 81 - 94   2016.2

  28. 市区町村スケールでの低炭素社会シナリオ分析と地域比較-運輸部門を加えた分析

    白木裕斗, 芦名秀一

    第32回エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス     2016

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.)  

  29. Effect of Energy Saving Campaign in Fukushima Reviewed

    Shiraki, H, Tanaka, H, Nakamura, S

    IAIA16: Resilience and Sustainability     2016

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (international conference proceedings)  

  30. The impacts on climate mitigation costs of considering curtailment and storage of variable renewable energy in a general equilibrium model Reviewed

    Dai, H, Fujimori, S, Silva, H. D, Shiraki, H, Masui, T, Matsuoka, Y

    Energy Economics     2016

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

  31. Analysis of Optimal Locations for Power Stations and Their Impact on Industrial Symbiosis Planning under Transition toward Low-carbon Power Sector in Japan Reviewed

    Shiraki, H, Ashina, S, Kameyama, Y, Hashimoto, S, Fujita, T

    Journal of Cleaner Production   Vol. 114   page: 81 - 94   2016

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  32. 市区町村スケールでの低炭素社会シナリオ分析と地域比較

    白木裕斗, 芦名秀一

    第31回エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス     2015

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.)  

  33. Impacts of Regional Economic Development with Industrial Symbiosis on Shifting Low Carbon Energy Systems in Municipality Scale in Japan: Case Study in North Coastal Area of Fukushima Prefecture

    Shiraki H, Ashina S, Ohnishi S

    The 8th Conference of the International Society for Industrial Ecology     2015

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  34. 寒冷農村地域における家庭の電力消費特性

    白木裕斗, 中村省吾, 五味馨, 芦名秀一

    第24回日本エネルギー学会大会予稿集     2015

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  35. 環境配慮型経営による省エネ技術導入・燃料転換の障壁の除去とその効果の推計 Reviewed

    白木裕斗

    サステイナブルマネジメント   Vol. 13 ( 1,2 ) page: 84 - 98   2014

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

  36. Assessment of Large Scale Penetration of Variable Renewables in Japan Considering Suppression of Power Fluctuation Reviewed

    Shiraki, H, Ashina, S

    Grand Renewable Energy 2014     2014

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  37. 再生可能エネルギーを活用する再開発等に対する容積率緩和制度の提案 Reviewed

    松橋啓介, 白木裕斗, 芦名秀一, 有賀敏典

    土木学会論文集G   Vol. 70 ( 6 ) page: Ⅱ_81 - Ⅱ_86   2014

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  38. 多地域電源計画モデルを用いた2050年までのわが国電力部門における低炭素化シナリオの検討

    芦名秀一, 白木裕斗

    第33回エネルギー・資源学会研究発表会     2014

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  39. 太陽光・風力発電の短周期・長周期の変動性を考慮した再生可能エネルギーの導入可能性分析

    白木裕斗, 芦名秀一

    第30回エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス     2014

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.)  

  40. 8-4-1 Feasibility Study on Low Carbon Energy System in Municipality Scale in Japan : Case Study in So-so Area of Fukushima Prefecture

    ASHINA Shuichi, SHIRAKI Hiroto, TOGAWA Takuya

    Proceedings of the Annual Conference of The Japan Institute of Energy   Vol. 23   page: 302 - 303   2014

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.)   Publisher:The Japan Institute of Energy  

    In order to achieve long-term GHG reduction target in Japan (80% reduction from 1990 level), it is important to take actions in national scale as well as sub-national (or local) scale, such as municipalities. However, due to lack of basic information of energy supply and consumption in sub-national scale, designing low carbon society scenarios faces many difficulties to proceed. In the paper, we have analyzed energy supply and consumption structure and summarized as an Energy Balance Table (EBT), and investigate future trend and feasibility of achieving low carbon society in sub-national scale. So-so area of Fukushima prefecture is selected as a target area. It is found from the results that trend of energy supply and consumption in sub-national scale is totally different from national scale trend.

    DOI: 10.20550/jietaikaiyoushi.23.0_302

    CiNii Books

  41. 燃料転換の速度のモデル化とエネルギーモデルへの適用

    白木裕斗, 田崎智宏, 松橋啓介, 芦名秀一, 森口祐一

    環境科学会2013年年会     2013

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.)  

  42. Effects of Low Carbon Energy Transition on Future Fossil Fuel Prices with an Energy Resource Model Reviewed

    Shiraki, H, Ashina, S

    36th IAEE (International Association for Energy Economics) International Conference     2013

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (international conference proceedings)  

  43. 技術の普及速度を考慮した世界の温室効果ガス削減シナリオの検討

    白木裕斗, 芦名秀一

    第28回エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス     2012

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.)  

  44. The impact on Climate change mitigation policy of nuclear policy changing in Asia Reviewed

    Shiraki, H, Ashina, S, Akashi, O, Kameyama, Y, Moriguchi, Y

    3rd IAEE (International Association for Energy Economics) Asian Conference     2012

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (international conference proceedings)  

  45. 多地域電源計画モデルを用いた2020年の日本電力部門における再生可能エネルギー導入シナリオの検討 Reviewed

    白木裕斗, 芦名秀一, 亀山康子, 森口祐一, 橋本征二

    エネルギー・資源   Vol. 33 ( 1 ) page: 1 - 10   2012

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

  46. 地域性を考慮した再生可能エネルギーの導入に関する研究

    白木裕斗, 芦名秀一, 亀山康子, 森口祐一

    第27回エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス     2011

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.)  

  47. 金属資源回収プロセスにおけるライフサイクルアセスメント

    渡邉望, 白木裕斗, 加藤格

    分離技術会年会2009     2009

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.)  

  48. 色素増感太陽電池のLCA

    白木裕斗, 渡邉望, 永吉浩, 加藤格

    分離技術年会2008     2008

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.)  

  49. LCA of Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells Reviewed

    Shiraki, H, Watanabe, N, Nagayoshi, H, Gates, J, Kato, I

    International Conference on Separation Science and Technology     2008

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Books 1

  1. 脱炭素社会のエネルギーを考える <高校生・高専生向けテキスト>

    柳下正治, 荒井眞一, 磐田朋子, 木村浩, 白木裕斗, 西岡秀三, 松橋啓介( Role: Contributor ,  第二章 日本のエネルギーの状況,第三章 脱炭素社会のエネルギーシステムを考える,資料編)

    一般社団法人 環境政策対話研究所  2021.10 

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    Language:Japanese Book type:Textbook, survey, introduction

MISC 2

  1. Correction to: EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings (Sustainability Science, (2021), 16, 2, (355-374), 10.1007/s11625-021-00913-2) Reviewed

    Sugiyama M, Fujimori S, Wada K, Oshiro K, Kato E, Komiyama R, Silva Herran D, Matsuo Y, Shiraki H., Ju Y

    Sustainability Science   Vol. 16 ( 5 ) page: 1771   2021.1

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (bulletin of university, research institution)   Publisher:Sustainability Science  

    In the original publication of the article, data availability was missing and it is provided in this correction. The scenario data is available at https:// doi. org/ 10. 5281/ zenodo. 48176 56.

    DOI: 10.1007/s11625-021-00992-1

    Scopus

  2. 地方自治体を対象とした低炭素社会シナリオ分析モデルの開発と福島県への適用

    芦名秀一, 白木裕斗, 大城賢, 岡和孝, 日比野剛

    日本エネルギー学会大会講演要旨集   Vol. 24th   page: 272 - 273   2015.7

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    Language:Japanese  

    J-GLOBAL

Presentations 15

  1. 市区町村スケールの脱炭素シナリオにおける合成燃料の導入可能性の検討―北海道釧路市を対象として―

    伊藤悠太, 白木 裕斗

    第31回地球環境シンポジウム  2023.9.21  土木学会地球環境委員会

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    Event date: 2023.9

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:滋賀   Country:Japan  

  2. デマンドレスポンス資源量の不確実性を考慮した電力システム分析

    國武星佑, 白木裕斗

    第42回エネルギー・資源学会研究発表会  2023.8 

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    Event date: 2023.8

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:大阪   Country:Japan  

  3. 電力需要の不確実性を考慮した電力システム分析

    白木裕斗

    第40回エネルギー・資源学会研究発表会  2021.8.2 

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

  4. Assessment of generation mix in 2030 using high resolution power dispatch model International conference

    Shiraki, H

    The 27th AIM International Workshop  2021.9.30 

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Poster presentation  

  5. Estimation of Flexibility Resources for Power System Stabilization under a Long-term Low Carbon Scenario International conference

    Hiroto SHIRAKI, Ken Oshiro, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa

    The 24th AIM International Workshop  2018.11.5 

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

  6. Integrated Assessment and Rapid Technological Changes - toward shorter IPCC cycle International conference

    Hiroto Shiraki, Masahiro Sugiyama

    International Energy Workshop  2018.6.19 

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

  7. Perceived Feasibility of Japan’s decarbonization transition: Expert Perspectives International conference

    Ju, Y, Sugiyama, M, Shiraki, H

    14th IAMC Annual Meeting 2021  2021.11.29 

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

  8. Preliminary assessment of generation mix in 2050 using power dispatch model with long-term chronological data International conference

    Shiraki, H

    The 26th AIM International Workshop  2020.9.2 

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Poster presentation  

  9. The role of hydrogen power generation in the low-carbon electricity grid International conference

    Hiroto Shiraki, Ai Fujiwara

    The 25th AIM International Workshop  2019.11.18 

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Poster presentation  

    Venue:Ibaraki  

  10. 企業における電気自動車の導入実態と導入意思の要因分析

    白木裕斗, 佐藤真, 村上一真

    第28回地球環境シンポジウム  2020.9.24 

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

  11. 住宅に対する住民評価の要因分析 - 省エネ性の影響 -

    藤本穂乃佳, 白木裕斗, 村上一真

    土木学会 第29回地球環境シンポジウム  2021.9.27 

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

  12. 輸送効率を考慮した地域別自動車CO2排出量の要因分解

    白木裕斗, 松本健一, 重富陽介, 榎原友樹, 越智雄輝, 小川祐貴

    第38回エネルギー・資源学会研究発表会  2018.6.10 

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:大阪  

  13. 長期低排出発展戦略下の電力システムにおける再生可能エネルギーの役割:EMF35 JMIPからの含意 Invited

    白木裕斗

    再生可能エネルギー・モデリングに関する研究ワークショップ  2020.11.19 

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (invited, special)  

  14. デマンドレスポンス資源量の不確実性を考慮した 電力システム分析 ~貨物車と乗用車の違いに着目して~

    國武星佑, 白木裕斗

    第40回エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス  2024.1 

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    Language:Japanese  

  15. 複数の脱炭素燃料を考慮した 市区町村スケールでの脱炭素シナリオ分析 ―福岡県北九州市を対象として―

    伊藤悠太, 白木 裕斗

    第40回エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス  2024.1 

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:東京  

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KAKENHI (Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research) 3

  1. 世界全域を対象とした技術・経済・社会的な実現可能性を考慮した脱炭素社会への道筋に関する研究

    2021.4 - 2024.3

    環境研究総合推進費 

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    Grant type:Competitive

  2. 将来の不確実性を考慮した頑健な脱炭素電力システムシナリオ分析

    2021.4 - 2024.3

    科学研究費補助金 若手研究 

    白木裕斗

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    Grant type:Competitive

  3. 将来の不確実性を考慮した頑健な脱炭素電力システムシナリオ分析

    Grant number:21K14577  2021.4 - 2024.3

    科学研究費助成事業  若手研究

    白木 裕斗

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    Authorship:Principal investigator 

    Grant amount:\3770000 ( Direct Cost: \2900000 、 Indirect Cost:\870000 )

    脱炭素社会の実現に向けて、脱炭素電力システムへの移行が社会的に要請されており、移行に必要となる投資、移行した電力システムの姿を定量的に示す必要がある。しかし、現在、電力システムを取り巻く技術・経済状況は急激に変化しており(例えば、再生可能エネルギーや蓄電池のコスト、電化率)、その将来値にも大きな不確実性がある。
    本研究は、①網羅的な文献調査により、電力システムに関わるパラメータの将来予測値の幅を整理・見える化すること、②入力変数の確率分布を考慮可能な電力システムモデルにより、不確実性のもとでの頑健な脱炭素電力システム像を示すことを目的とする。
    2022年度は、2021年度に開発した確率論的電力システムモデルを用いて、原子力政策の不確実性を考慮したシミュレーション分析、および、電気自動車(EV)の普及による電力需要の不確実性を考慮したシミュレーション分析を行った。
    原子力発電の社会受容性の不確実性を考慮したシミュレーション分析では、原子力発電の社会受容に不確実性が存在する状況下で,脱炭素を達成しうる我が国電力部門の2050年までの電源構成を推計した。その結果、2050年に原発を利用できない可能性が70%を超える場合、原発の新設・リプレースが選択されず、変動性再生可能エネルギーをバイオマス発電と蓄電池で補完する電源構成により電力システムの脱炭素化が実現される結果が示された。また、2050年に原発を利用できない可能性が10~20%ある場合、2030年以降から原発の新設やリプレースが選択されるが、原発が利用できない可能性が10%でもある場合には、原発が使えないケースのバックアップ電源として、原発と同規模の水素発電が建設される結果が得られた。
    EVの普及による電力需要の不確実性を考慮したシミュレーション分析では、デマンドレスポンス資源としてEVが期待されていること、その一方で、その将来の普及量には不確実性が存在することに着目し、EVの普及水準が異なる複数のシナリオの下で、脱炭素を達成しうる我が国電力部門の2050年までの電源構成を推計した。その結果、EVの普及による2050年の電力需要量の増加率は約2~9%であること、EVの普及による電力需要の増加率に関わらず、2050年には太陽光発電と風力発電が主要な発電源となることが示された。また、EVの普及に伴い、水素発電による発電量が減少し、太陽光発電による発電量が増加することが示された。
    原子力発電の利用可能性や電気自動車の普及量を対象として、将来の不確実性を考慮したシミュレーション分析を実施できた。これらのシミュレーションでは、原子力発電の利用可能性や電気自動車の普及状況は社会・政治的な要因にも影響を受けることに着目し、あえて単一の確率分布を想定することを避けるなど、確率計画法の適用方法自体にも修正を加えており、シミュレーションの方法論についても学術的な知見を蓄積しつつある。また、これらの研究成果については、学会で発表しており、学術論文の投稿に向けた準備も進められている。
    当初の計画通り、2022年度に引き続き、将来パラメータ分布の同定、および、不確実性を考慮したシミュレーション分析を実施する。
    対象とするパラメータとしては、2022年度に対象としたEVに加えて、ヒートポンプ給湯器、蓄電池の普及状況についても調査し、分析に反映する。また、2022年に検討した分析手法(社会・政治的な要因にも影響を受けるパラメータを扱う際には、確率計画法とシナリオ分析を組み合わせた分析手法)について、論理的妥当性・有用性があることを示すため、リアルオプション分析等の関連する学術論文を精査する。

 

Teaching Experience (On-campus) 3

  1. 途上国開発特論I

    2023

  2. 持続可能性と環境学

    2023

  3. 環境情報演習

    2023

 

Social Contribution 7

  1. なごや環境大学主催講座《脱炭素を考える》基礎講座 次世代エネルギーワークショップ

    Role(s):Lecturer, Advisor

    2024.2

  2. 2023年度次世代エネルギーワークショップ名古屋

    Role(s):Lecturer, Advisor, Informant

    名古屋市立大学  2023.7 - 2023.8

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    Audience: College students

    Type:Visiting lecture

  3. FY2021 Asia Fieldwork

    Role(s):Lecturer

    2022.1

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    Audience: College students

    Type:Visiting lecture

  4. A selection of 2021's highlighted research - Climate

    Springer Nature  2022.1

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    Audience: Scientific

    Type:Internet

  5. 2021年度高校生ノーザンカンファレンス

    Role(s):Lecturer, Advisor, Informant

    立命館慶祥高等学校  2021.10 - 2021.12

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    Audience: High school students

    Type:Visiting lecture

  6. 2021年度次世代エネルギーワークショップ名古屋

    Role(s):Lecturer, Advisor, Informant

    名古屋市立大学  2021.7 - 2021.8

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    Audience: College students

    Type:Visiting lecture

  7. 日本版気候若者会議

    Role(s):Lecturer, Advisor

    2021.6

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    Audience: College students, Graduate students, General

    Type:Lecture

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Academic Activities 7

  1. 環境・資源編集小委員会(71小委員会) 委員 International contribution

    Role(s):Review, evaluation, Peer review

    土木学会 論文集編集委員会  2022.4 - 2024.3

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    Type:Peer review 

  2. 第31回地球環境シンポジウム実行小委員会 委員長 International contribution

    Role(s):Planning, management, etc.

    土木学会 地球環境委員会  2022 - 2023

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    Type:Competition, symposium, etc. 

  3. Sustainability science Editor International contribution

    Role(s):Review, evaluation, Peer review

    Springer Nature  2021.4

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    Type:Peer review 

  4. 地球環境研究論文編集小委員会 委員 International contribution

    Role(s):Review, evaluation

    土木学会 地球環境委員会  2021.4

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    Type:Academic society, research group, etc. 

  5. 幹事会 幹事 International contribution

    Role(s):Planning, management, etc.

    土木学会 地球環境委員会  2021.4

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    Type:Academic society, research group, etc. 

  6. 代議員

    エネルギー・資源学会  2018.4

  7. サマーワークショップ 幹事

    Role(s):Planning, management, etc.

    エネルギー・資源学会  2014.4

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    Type:Academic society, research group, etc. 

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