Updated on 2025/03/28

写真a

 
SHIRAKI Hiroto
 
Organization
Graduate School of Environmental Studies Department of Environmental Engineering and Architecture Land, Infrastructure and Transportation Management Associate professor
Graduate School
Graduate School of Environmental Studies
Undergraduate School
School of Engineering Architecture
Title
Associate professor

Degree 2

  1. 博士(環境学) ( 2014.3   東京大学 ) 

  2. 修士(環境学) ( 2011.3   東京大学 ) 

Research Interests 5

  1. Energy consumption behavior analysis

  2. Technological and economic assessment of climate change mitigation measures

  3. Carbon neutral society

  4. Power and energy system analysis using mathematical models

  5. Energy system analysis

Research Areas 3

  1. Environmental Science/Agriculture Science / Environmental policy and social systems

  2. Environmental Science/Agriculture Science / Environmental impact assessment

  3. Energy Engineering / Earth resource engineering, Energy sciences

Current Research Project and SDGs 1

  1. 気候変動緩和技術の導入可能性分析

Research History 5

  1. Nagoya University   Associate professor

    2023.4

  2. 国立環境研究所   社会環境システム研究センター   客員研究員

    2019.4

  3. The University of Shiga Prefecture   School of Environmental Science Department of Environmental Policy and Planning   Assistant Professor

    2019.4 - 2023.3

  4. The University of Shiga Prefecture   School of Environmental Science Department of Environmental Policy and Planning   Assistant Professor

    2016.10 - 2019.3

  5. National Institute for Environmental Studies   Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research   Research Associate

    2014.4 - 2016.9

Education 2

  1. The University of Tokyo

    2011.4 - 2014.3

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    Country: Japan

  2. The University of Tokyo

    2009.4 - 2011.3

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    Country: Japan

Awards 3

  1. 学生発表賞

    2014.6   エネルギー・資源学会  

    白木裕斗, 芦名秀一, 亀山康子, 森口祐一

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    Award type:Award from Japanese society, conference, symposium, etc.  Country:Japan

  2. 専攻長賞

    2011.3   東京大学大学院新領域創成科学研究科 環境システム学専攻  

    白木裕斗

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    Country:Japan

  3. Outstanding Paper Award

    2008.10   第8回分離技術国際会議  

    Shiraki, H, Watanabe, N, Nagayoshi, H, Gates, J, Kato, I

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    Award type:Award from international society, conference, symposium, etc.  Country:Japan

 

Papers 55

  1. Exploration of determinants underlying regional disparity in rooftop photovoltaic adoption: A case study in Nagoya, Japan Reviewed International coauthorship Open Access

    Linwei Tao, Kiichiro Hayashi, Hiroto Shiraki, Xiaoxun Huang, Phub Dem

    Applied Energy   Vol. 367   2024.8

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123469

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  2. Integration of a computable general equilibrium model with an energy system model: Application of the AIM global model Reviewed International journal Open Access

    Shinichiro Fujimori, Ken Oshiro, Osamu Nishiura, Tomoko Hasegawa, Hiroto Shiraki

    Environmental Modelling & Software   Vol. 178   page: 106087 - 106087   2024.7

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Elsevier BV  

    DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106087

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  3. WILLINGNESS TO IMPLEMENT AGRIVOLTAIC SYSTEMS AMONG INDIVIDUAL FARMERS AND AGRICULTURAL CORPORATIONS Reviewed

    OHASHI Yusuke, SHIRAKI Hiroto, MURAKAMI Kazuma

    Japanese Journal of JSCE   Vol. 80 ( 27 ) page: n/a   2024

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    Authorship:Corresponding author   Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Japan Society of Civil Engineers  

    <p> In this study, we conducted a questionnaire survey among individual farmers and agricultural corporations to identify their willingness to implement agrivoltaic systems. The results of a simple tabulation showed that only 30% of all respondents were aware of agrivoltaic systems, and 20% of all respondents were willing to implement agrivoltaic systems. A chi-squared test on the willingness to implement agrivoltaic systems by individual farmers and agricultural corporations revealed that individual farmers were significantly more likely to be unwilling to implement agrivoltaic systems or to implement agrivoltaic systems under a business system in which the farmer and the power producer are different, while agricultural corporations were significantly more likely to implement agrivoltaic systems under a business system in which the farmer and the power producer are the same. A regression analysis of the factors influencing individual farmers’ willingness to implement agrivoltaic systems showed that concerns about technical and environmental aspects of agrivoltaic systems, interest in agrivoltaic systems, and crop type had significant effects on individual farmers’ willingness to implement agrivoltaic systems.</p>

    DOI: 10.2208/jscejj.24-27021

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  4. ASSESSMENT OF JAPAN'S POWER SECTOR VISION IN 2040 BY CONJOINT ANALYSIS BASED ON THE RESULTS OF MATHEMATICAL SIMULATION MODEL Reviewed

    INADA Yuto, SHIRAKI Hiroto, HORI Keiko

    Japanese Journal of JSCE   Vol. 80 ( 27 ) page: n/a   2024

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    Authorship:Corresponding author   Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Japan Society of Civil Engineers  

    <p> This study assessed the vision of Japan's power sector in 2040 by using conjoint analysis based on the results of a model intercomparison project. The attributes of the conjoint analysis were safety, economic efficiency, environmental suitability, and energy security, which are the basic principles of Japan's energy policy. The levels of each attribute were set based on the results of scenario analyses assuming the achievement of Japan's long-term emission reduction targets by using the multiple energy system and integrated assessment models. The results of the conjoint analysis showed that the preferences for lower economic performance, lower safety, and lower energy security were significantly low. Economic efficiency and energy security were the dominant factors in the relative importance assessment, accounting for about 45% and 38%, respectively. Meanwhile, environmental suitability had no significant effect on the preference of the visions. This may be because that all the options of CO<sub>2</sub> emission targets under the long-term emission targets we presented, which is the index of the environmental suitability, are ambitious compared to current levels and, therefore, are not taken seriously by the respondents; instead, other attributes that they consider may directory affect their lives influence their preferences of 2040 visions.</p>

    DOI: 10.2208/jscejj.24-27024

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  5. Perceived feasibility and potential barriers of a net-zero system transition among Japanese experts Reviewed Open Access

    Yiyi Ju, Masahiro Sugiyama, Hiroto Shiraki

    Communications Earth &amp; Environment   Vol. 4 ( 1 )   2023.12

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Springer Science and Business Media LLC  

    Abstract

    Many governments and non-state actors have pledged to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, raising questions about the feasibility of these decarbonization goals. The existing literature, however, mostly relied on technoeconomic assessments and lack broad contextual considerations such as national conditions and local sociocultural characteristics. Here, we present a framework for assessing perceived feasibility and multi-dimensional barriers for net-zero transition that can complement existing methods of technoeconomic traditions. We applied this framework to the Japanese net-zero goal by surveying more than 100 experts from diverse fields with a shared national context. Most of the experts supported the desirability of the net-zero goal and chose a probability of 33–66% for its feasibility. However, the distribution of feasibility assessments differs between groups of integrated assessment modelers and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change authors and other researchers, suggesting opportunities for further exploration within and between communities. Identified barriers reflect a unique national condition of Japan and include the limitations of national strategies and clean energy supply. The present framework can be extended to non-experts, data-scarce geographies and sectors.

    DOI: 10.1038/s43247-023-01079-8

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    Other Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-01079-8

  6. Reconsidering the lower end of long-term climate scenarios Reviewed International journal Open Access

    Shinichiro Fujimori, Osamu Nishiura, Ken Oshiro, Tomoko Hasegawa, Hiroto Shiraki, Hideo Shiogama, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Jun’ya Takakura, Kazuaki Tsuchiya, Masahiro Sugiyama, Shinichiro Asayama

    PLOS Climate   Vol. 2 ( 11 ) page: e0000318   2023.11

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000318

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  7. Alternative, but expensive, energy transition scenario featuring carbon capture and utilization can preserve existing energy demand technologies Reviewed International journal Open Access

    Ken Oshiro, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Asayama, Hiroto Shiraki, Kiyoshi Takahashi

    One Earth   Vol. 6 ( 7 ) page: 872 - 883   2023.7

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Elsevier BV  

    DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.06.005

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  8. エネルギー教育の方法と児童の知識習得・省エネ行動との関係に関する研究 Reviewed

    高鍋 彩, 白木 裕斗

    土木学会論文集   Vol. 79 ( 5 )   2023.5

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    Authorship:Last author, Corresponding author   Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

    DOI: https://doi.org/10.2208/jscejj.22-00270

  9. TECHNO-ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF INTRODUCING SYNTHETIC FUELS IN THE MUNICIPLE SCALE DECARBONIZATION SCENARIO: A CASE OF KUSHIRO, HOKKAIDO, JAPAN

    ITO Yuta, SHIRAKI Hiroto

    Japanese Journal of JSCE   Vol. 79 ( 27 ) page: n/a   2023

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    Authorship:Last author   Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Japan Society of Civil Engineers  

    <p> This study simulated energy systems that could achieve carbon neutrality in 2050 for Kushiro City, Hokkaido, Japan, using an energy system model which can take into account the use of synthetic fuels and regional characteristics. The results show that a scenario with no emission reduction targets could reduce CO<sub>2</sub> emissions by 61% from 2015 levels, and even a scenario without synthetic fuels could reduce emissions by 80% from 2015 levels through aggressive mitigation measures. Key mitigation measures in the mitigation scenario included the introduction of solar photovoltaics in the residential sector, the substitution to LP gas in the industrial sector, and the promotion of electrification in the transportation sector. The study also showed that carbon neutrality in 2050 could be achieved by using synthetic fuels to meet the energy demand that should be supplied by liquid and gaseous fuels, i.e., space heating in the cold region and industrial heat. Policies that encourage the cost reduction of synthetic fuels are key to decarbonizing cold regions and industrial clusters, where the demand for liquid and gaseous fuels may remain.</p>

    DOI: 10.2208/jscejj.23-27038

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  10. Carbon-dependent net-zero emission energy systems without reliance on fossil fuels and bioenergy

    Ken Oshiro, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Asayama, Hiroto Shiraki, Kiyoshi Takahashi

        2022.11

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  11. 籾殻ガス化発電システムのライフサイクルアセスメント Reviewed

    國武 星佑, 白木 裕斗, 吉川 直樹

    土木学会論文集G(環境)   Vol. 78 ( 5 ) page: I_87 - I_94   2022

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

  12. バイオマスエネルギーに着目した自治体レベルでのCO2大幅削減シナリオの検討 ー岡山県真庭市と対象としてー Reviewed

    中間 蒼, 白木 裕斗

    土木学会論文集G(環境)   Vol. 78 ( 5 ) page: I_441 - I_449   2022

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

  13. Correction to: EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings (Sustainability Science, (2021), 16, 2, (355-374), 10.1007/s11625-021-00913-2) Open Access

    Sugiyama M, Fujimori S, Wada K, Oshiro K, Kato E, Komiyama R, Silva Herran D, Matsuo Y, Shiraki H., Ju Y

    Sustainability Science   Vol. 16 ( 5 ) page: 1771 - 1771   2021.9

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    In the original publication of the article, data availability was missing and it is provided in this correction. The scenario data is available at https:// doi. org/ 10. 5281/ zenodo. 48176 56.

    DOI: 10.1007/s11625-021-00992-1

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  14. Correction to: The role of renewables in the Japanese power sector: implications from the EMF35 JMIP (Sustainability Science, (2021), 10.1007/s11625-021-00917-y) Open Access

    Shiraki H, Sugiyama M, Matsuo Y, Komiyama R, Fujimori S, Kato E, Oshiro K, Silva D.H

    Sustainability Science   Vol. 16 ( 2 ) page: 393 - 393   2021.3

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    © 2021, The Author(s). In the original publication of the article, the incorrect file was published as supplementary material. The supplementary file “Supplementary file1” has been replaced. The original article has been updated.

    DOI: 10.1007/s11625-021-00934-x

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  15. EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings Reviewed Open Access

    Sugiyama M, Fujimori S, Wada K, Oshiro K, Kato E, Komiyama R, Silva Herran D, Matsuo Y, Shiraki H., Ju Y

    Sustainability Science   Vol. 16 ( 2 ) page: 355 - 374   2021.3

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Sustainability Science  

    © 2021, The Author(s). In June, 2019, Japan submitted its mid-century strategy to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and pledged 80% emissions cuts by 2050. The strategy has not gone through a systematic analysis, however. The present study, Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), employs five energy-economic and integrated assessment models to evaluate the nationally determined contribution and mid-century strategy of Japan. EMF 35 JMIP conducts a suite of sensitivity analyses on dimensions including emissions constraints, technology availability, and demand projections. The results confirm that Japan needs to deploy all of its mitigation strategies at a substantial scale, including energy efficiency, electricity decarbonization, and end-use electrification. Moreover, they suggest that with the absence of structural changes in the economy, heavy industries will be one of the hardest to decarbonize. Partitioning of the sum of squares based on a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) reconfirms that mitigation strategies, such as energy efficiency and electrification, are fairly robust across models and scenarios, but that the cost metrics are uncertain. There is a wide gap of policy strength and breadth between the current policy instruments and those suggested by the models. Japan should strengthen its climate action in all aspects of society and economy to achieve its long-term target.

    DOI: 10.1007/s11625-021-00913-2

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  16. The role of renewables in the Japanese power sector: implications from the EMF35 JMIP Reviewed Open Access

    Shiraki H, Sugiyama M, Matsuo Y, Komiyama R, Fujimori S, Kato E, Oshiro K, Silva D.H

    Sustainability Science   Vol. 16 ( 2 ) page: 375 - 392   2021.3

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    © 2021, The Author(s). The Japanese power system has unique characteristics with regard to variable renewable energies (VREs), such as higher costs, lower potentials, and less flexibility with the grid connection compared to other major greenhouse-gas-emitting countries. We analyzed the role of renewable energies (REs) in the future Japanese power sector using the results from the model intercomparison project Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 35 Japan Model Intercomparison Project (JMIP) using varying emission reduction targets and key technological conditions across scenarios. We considered the uncertainties for future capital costs of solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and batteries in addition to the availability of nuclear and carbon dioxide capture and storage. The results show that REs supply more than 40% of electricity in most of the technology sensitivity scenarios (median 51.0%) when assuming an 80% emission reduction in 2050. The results (excluding scenarios that assume the continuous growth of nuclear power and/or the abundant availability of domestic biomass and carbon-free hydrogen) show that the median VRE shares reach 52.2% in 2050 in the 80% emission reduction scenario. On the contrary, the availability of newly constructed nuclear power, affordable biomass, and carbon-free hydrogen can reduce dependence on VREs to less than 20%. The policy costs were much more sensitive to the capital costs and resource potential of VREs than the battery cost uncertainties. Specifically, while the doubled capital costs of VRE resulted in a 13.0% (inter-model median) increase in the policy cost, the halved capital costs of VREs reduced 8.7% (inter-model median) of the total policy cost. These results imply that lowering the capital costs of VREs would be effective in achieving a long-term emission reduction target considering the current high Japanese VRE costs.

    DOI: 10.1007/s11625-021-00917-y

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  17. 住宅に対する住民評価の要因分析 - 省エネ性の影響 - Reviewed

    藤本穂乃佳, 白木裕斗, 村上一真

    土木学会論文集G(環境)   Vol. 77 ( 5 ) page: I_331 - I_339   2021

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

  18. Back to the basic: toward improvement of technoeconomic representation in integrated assessment models Reviewed

    Shiraki H, Sugiyama M

    Climatic Change   Vol. 162 ( 1 ) page: 13 - 24   2020.9

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    © 2020, Springer Nature B.V. With the shift of climate debate from understanding to actions, the use of integrated assessment models (IAMs) is gradually expanding. Since IAMs produce least-cost pathways, technoeconomic parameters constitute one of the basic parameters. Traditionally, IAMs dealt with technologies with slowly-changing, relatively homogeneous manner. Since technologies are rapidly evolving, and the pattern of technological development is regionally heterogeneous, the IAM community must embrace a new strategy to treat their underlying technoeconomic parameters. Here we illustrate such challenges by reviewing the treatment and performance of IAMs with respect to some of the rapidly changing technologies (e.g., solar, wind, and batteries). Our review shows that IAMs have difficulty in updating the cost of the rapidly changing technologies. We then articulate a new strategy, drawing upon the lesson from the current model intercomparison projects and climate sciences. We argue that a loose network of modeling groups across the globe should create a database of technological parameters in a standardized format and standard evaluation tool, perhaps to be facilitated by the IAM Consortium. Such a framework would contribute to the review of the progress toward the Paris Agreement goals.

    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02731-4

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  19. Factors affecting CO2 emissions from private automobiles in Japan: The impact of vehicle occupancy Reviewed

    Hiroto Shiraki, Ken'ichi Matsumoto, Yosuke Shigetomi, Tomoki Ehara, Yuki Ochi, Yuki Ogawa

    Applied Energy   Vol. 259   page: 114196 - 114196   2020.2

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Elsevier {BV}  

    © 2019 Elsevier Ltd The road transport sector accounted for 18.8% of global CO2 emissions in 2016. Regional efforts are indispensable for reducing automobile emissions, especially considering the diversity in regional transportation systems. Existing studies of automobile emissions have focused on nationwide transportation systems or differences in city size without considering regionality and long-term changes in vehicle occupancy. In this study, we decomposed national and regional automobile emissions in Japan between 1990 and 2015 by the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method. Statistical data that took vehicle occupancy into account were used. Results showed that nationwide vehicle occupancy increased (due to increased vehicle size and vehicle ownership), which increased emissions by 15.2% compared to 1990 levels. In highly populated regions, fuel efficiency decreased earlier than other regions thanks to the strengthening of ordinances regarding air pollution. In Western Japan, which includes less-populated prefectures, the rising popularity of mini-vehicles resulted in increased vehicle ownership and a decrease in occupancy but also led to improvements in fuel economy. To reduce automobile CO2 emissions, it will be essential to improve fuel efficiency and to increase vehicle occupancy through mechanisms, such as ridesharing and vehicle right sizing.

    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114196

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  20. factors affecting willingness to introduce electric vehicles in companies Reviewed

    Shiraki, H, M, Sato, K, Murakami

      Vol. 76 ( 5 ) page: I_187 - I_195   2020

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  21. Energy transformation cost for the Japanese mid-century strategy Reviewed Open Access

    Shinichiro Fujimori, Ken Oshiro, Hiroto Shiraki, Tomoko Hasegawa

    Nature Communications   Vol. 10 ( 1 ) page: 4737   2019.12

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Nature Communications  

    © 2019, The Author(s). The costs of climate change mitigation policy are one of the main concerns in decarbonizing the economy. The macroeconomic and sectoral implications of policy interventions are typically estimated by economic models, which tend be higher than the additional energy system costs projected by energy system models. Here, we show the extent to which policy costs can be lower than those from conventional economic models by integrating an energy system and an economic model, applying Japan’s mid-century climate mitigation target. The GDP losses estimated with the integrated model were significantly lower than those in the conventional economic model by more than 50% in 2050. The representation of industry and service sector energy consumption is the main factor causing these differences. Our findings suggest that this type of integrated approach would contribute new insights by providing improved estimates of GDP losses, which can be critical information for setting national climate policies.

    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12730-4

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  22. Japan's long-term climate mitigation policy: Multi-model assessment and sectoral challenges Reviewed Open Access

    Sugiyama M, Fujimori S, Wada K, Endo S, Fujii Y, Komiyama R, Kato E, Kurosawa A, Matsuo Y, Oshiro K, Sano F, Shiraki H

    Energy   Vol. 167   page: 1120 - 1131   2019.1

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    © 2018 The Authors Japan is the sixth largest greenhouse gas emitter in 2016 and plays an important role to attain the long-term climate goals of the Paris Agreement. One of the key policy issues in Japan's energy and environmental policy arena is the energy system transition to achieve 80% emissions reduction in 2050, a current policy goal set in 2016. To contribute to the ongoing policy debate, this paper focuses on energy-related CO 2 emissions and analyzes such decarbonization scenarios that are consistent with the government goals. We employ six energy-economic and integrated assessment models to reveal decarbonization challenges in the energy system. The modeling results show that Japan's mitigation scenarios are characterized by high marginal costs of abatement. They also suggest that the industrial sector is likely to have a large final energy share and significant residual emissions under the 80% reduction scenario, though it is generally thought that the transport sector would have large decarbonization challenges. The present findings imply that not only energy policy but also industrial policy may be relevant to the long-term environmental target. Given the high marginal costs exceeding those of negative emissions technologies that could place a cost ceiling, further model development would be crucial.

    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.10.091

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  23. Addressing Key Drivers of Regional CO<sub>2</sub> Emissions of the Manufacturing Industry in Japan

    Matsumoto, K; Shigetomi, Y; Shiraki, H; Ochi, Y; Ogawa, Y; Ehara, T

    ENERGY JOURNAL   Vol. 40   page: 233 - 258   2019

  24. Addressing Key Drivers of Regional CO2 Emissions of the Manufacturing Industry in Japan Reviewed

    Ken’ichi Matsumoto, Yosuke Shigetomi, Hiroto Shiraki, Yuki Ochi, Yuki Ogawa, Tomoki Ehara

    The Energy Journal   Vol. 40 ( 1 )   2019

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  25. Driving forces underlying sub-national carbon dioxide emissions within the household sector and implications for the Paris Agreement targets in Japan Reviewed Open Access

    Shigetomi, Y., Matsumoto, K., Ogawa, Y., Shiraki, H., Yamamoto, Y., Ochi, Y., Ehara, T.

    Applied Energy   Vol. 228   page: 2321 - 2332   2018.10

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    © 2018 Elsevier Ltd This study investigated insights into reducing energy-related CO2 emissions in households by examining individual socio-economic drivers at a sub-national level. Specifically, the logarithmic mean Divisia index technique was used to decompose CO2 emission trends into six drivers in all 47 prefectures of Japan during the period from 1990 to 2015. Drivers included the change in the number of households (household effect), distribution of households (distribution effect), household size (size effect), per-capita household energy consumption (consumption effect), household energy choice (choice effect), and sectoral CO2 emission intensity (intensity effect). The results showed that, in contrast to size and the distribution effects, the number of households had a positive, significant effect on CO2 emissions, indicating that recent demographic trends are responsible for the increase in CO2 emissions observed in most of the prefectures during the study period. With regard to effects related to consumption and choice, CO2 emissions due to changes in lifestyle dropped in only seven prefectures and reductions due to changes in sectoral energy choice were seen in only two prefectures in 2015. The intensity effect boosted the emissions of these prefectures the most in 2015 because of the shutdown of nuclear power plants due to the Great East Japan Earthquake. Further, we identified those prefectures that needed to reduce their per-capita energy consumption level in order to attain the reduction targets for household CO2 emissions in 2030 from 2015, given projected changes in demographic trends and recent and projected emission intensities. In order to achieve reductions in total CO2 emissions in line with the Paris Agreement, it is important to prioritize national and local policy interventions for the transfer of new household energy technologies, upgrade household appliances, and encourage people to limit energy consumption in light of the differences in these key drivers in each prefecture.

    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.07.057

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  26. Energy security performance in Japan under different socioeconomic and energy conditions Reviewed

    Matsumoto, K., Shiraki, H.

    Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews   Vol. 90   page: 391 - 401   2018.7

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews  

    © 2018 Elsevier Ltd A secure energy supply is indispensable for Japan's economic activity, but it is becoming more difficult to attain, due to increasing energy demand in emerging countries. The pattern of socioeconomic development and the achievement of a low-carbon society are also strongly related to energy security. This study evaluated energy security performance in Japan under alternative scenarios of future socioeconomic and energy conditions by applying three energy security indicators derived from the Shannon-Wiener diversity index. The 2050 Japan Low Carbon Navigator was used to estimate energy structures under five socioeconomic scenarios and three selected combinations of effort levels toward producing a low-carbon society. It was found that the effort levels were the most influential factors in determining energy security performance, because they greatly affect energy supply and demand. The choice of socioeconomic scenario was also influential, although the impact of this choice was less significant than the choice of effort level. However, the impact of country-risk indicators is less substantial than the above two factors. The energy security performance of Japan will improve in the future, compared with the current level. However, if the country pursues further economic growth, its energy security performance will not greatly improve. Consequently, increasing efforts to achieve a low-carbon society will contribute to the realization of a highly energy-secure society with respect to Japan's current and future socioeconomic situation.

    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2018.03.070

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  27. Dynamic linear modeling of monthly electricity demand in Japan: Time variation of electricity conservation effect

    Honjo K., Shiraki H., Ashina S.

    PLoS ONE   Vol. 13 ( 4 ) page: e0196331   2018.4

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    After the severe nuclear disaster in Fukushima, which was triggered by the Great East Japan earthquake in March 2011, nuclear power plants in Japan were temporarily shut down for mandatory inspections. To prevent large-scale blackouts, the Japanese government requested companies and households to reduce electricity consumption in summer and winter. It is reported that the domestic electricity demand had a structural decrease because of the electricity conservation effect (ECE). However, quantitative analysis of the ECE is not sufficient, and especially time variation of the ECE remains unclear. Understanding the ECE is important because Japan’s NDC (nationally determined contribution) assumes the reduction of CO2 emissions through aggressive energy conservation. In this study, we develop a time series model of monthly electricity demand in Japan and estimate time variation of the ECE. Moreover, we evaluate the impact of electricity conservation on CO2 emissions from power plants. The dynamic linear model is used to separate the ECE from the effects of other irrelevant factors (e.g. air temperature, economic production, and electricity price). Our result clearly shows that consumers’ electricity conservation behavior after the earthquake was not temporary but became established as a habit. Between March 2011 and March 2016, the ECE on industrial electricity demand ranged from 3.9% to 5.4%, and the ECE on residential electricity demand ranged from 1.6% to 7.6%. The ECE on the total electricity demand was estimated at 3.2%–6.0%. We found a seasonal pattern that the residential ECE in summer is higher than that in winter. The emissions increase from the shutdown of nuclear power plants was mitigated by electricity conservation. The emissions reduction effect was estimated at 0.82 MtCO2–2.26 MtCO2 (−4.5% on average compared to the zero-ECE case). The time-varying ECE is necessary for predicting Japan’s electricity demand and CO2 emissions after the earthquake.

    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0196331

    Web of Science

    Scopus

    PubMed

  28. ESTIMATION OF FLEXIBILITY RESOURCES FOR POWER SYSTEM STABILIZATION UNDER A LONG-TERM LOW CARBON SCENARIO Reviewed

    SHIRAKI Hiroto, OSHIRO Ken, FUJIMORI Shinichiro, HASEGAWA Tomoko

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research)   Vol. 74 ( 5 ) page: I_369 - I_378   2018

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  29. AN ASSESSMENT OF JAPAN'S LONG-TERM GREENHOUSE EMISSIONS REDUCTION TARGET USING AN INTEGRATED ECONOMIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL MODEL Reviewed

    FUJIMORI Shinichiro, OSHIRO Ken, SHIRAKI Hiroto, HASEGAWA Tomoko

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research)   Vol. 74 ( 5 ) page: I_213 - I_222   2018

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  30. Dynamic linear modeling of monthly electricity demand in Japan: Time variation of electricity conservation effect Reviewed

    Keita Honjo, Hiroto Shiraki, Shuichi Ashina

    PloS one   Vol. 13 ( 4 )   2018

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  31. The impacts on climate mitigation costs of considering curtailment and storage of variable renewable energy in a general equilibrium model

    Dai H., Fujimori S., Silva Herran D., Shiraki H., Masui T., Matsuoka Y.

    Energy Economics   Vol. 64   page: 627 - 637   2017.5

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    Publisher:Energy Economics  

    The curtailment and storage associated with the fluctuation of electricity supplied by variable renewable energy (VRE) may limit its penetration into electricity systems. Therefore, these factors need to be explicitly treated in the integrated assessment models (IAMs). This study improves the representation of curtailment and storage of VRE in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. With the data generated from an hourly power sector model, curtailment and storage of VRE electricity are treated as a function of the shares of solar and wind in the electricity mix. This relationship is incorporated into a CGE model and we also updated the VRE costs and resource potential. The results show that with such improvement, by 2100, in a 450 ppm atmospheric CO2 equivalent concentration (henceforth ppm) scenario, some electricity generated from VRE is either curtailed (2.1%) or needs to be stored (2.9%). In contrast, if VRE fluctuation is not considered, the long-term global economic cost of carbon mitigation is significantly underestimated (by 52%) in the same scenario. Conversely, updating the VRE costs and resource potential leads to a decrease in mitigation costs. Our simulation implies that the fluctuation of VRE cannot be ignored and needs to be incorporated into CGE models. Moreover, in addition to storage with batteries, many other options are available to reduce curtailment of VRE. The top-down type CGE model has limitations to fully incorporate all aspects due to its limited spatial, temporal, and technological resolution.

    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.03.002

    Web of Science

    Scopus

  32. Estimating the hourly electricity profile of Japanese households – Coupling of engineering and statistical methods Reviewed Open Access

    Shiraki, H, Nakamura, S, Ashina, S, Honjo, K

    Energy   Vol. 114   page: 478 - 491   2016.11

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:Elsevier BV  

    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.08.019

    Open Access

    Web of Science

    Scopus

  33. Analysis of optimal locations for power stations and their impact on industrial symbiosis planning under transition toward low-carbon power sector in Japan

    Shiraki H., Ashina S., Kameyama Y., Hashimoto S., Fujita T.

    Journal of Cleaner Production   Vol. 114   page: 81 - 94   2016.2

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    Publisher:Journal of Cleaner Production  

    Power plants are one of key energy sources for industrial symbiosis complexes. However, decarbonization of the power sector, including decommissioning of existing fossil-fuel power plants, aggregation of power plant sites, and capacity augmentation of carbon-free power plants, is necessary to achieve low-carbon societies in the long term. Decarbonization results in declining advantage for industrial symbiosis complexes that rely on fossil-fuel power plants. To establish sustainable industrial symbiosis complexes, we used a quantitative model to analyze optimal locations and scales for power plants in Japan considering CO2 emissions reduction targets and several demand scenarios. Our results showed that even with a target of 80% CO2 emission reduction, almost half of Japan's electricity generation could come from fossil-fuel power plants in 2050 if CCS technology were deployed widely. Fossil-fuel power plants would be developed mainly in the regions of high electricity demand and little wind power potential, such as Tokyo, Chubu, and Kansai. From an intra-regional perspective, fossil-fuel power plants could be constructed in areas of high electricity demand. In addition, except for the above areas, generation from fossil-fuel power plants would vary in accordance with the availability of renewables and electricity demand. Our results indicate that future climate policy, regional electricity demand, and availability of regional renewables should be considered when planning the development of industrial symbiosis complexes.

    DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.09.079

    Web of Science

    Scopus

  34. 市区町村スケールでの低炭素社会シナリオ分析と地域比較-運輸部門を加えた分析

    白木裕斗, 芦名秀一

    第32回エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス     2016

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  35. Effect of Energy Saving Campaign in Fukushima Reviewed

    Shiraki, H, Tanaka, H, Nakamura, S

    IAIA16: Resilience and Sustainability     2016

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  36. The impacts on climate mitigation costs of considering curtailment and storage of variable renewable energy in a general equilibrium model Reviewed

    Dai, H, Fujimori, S, Silva, H. D, Shiraki, H, Masui, T, Matsuoka, Y

    Energy Economics     2016

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

  37. Analysis of Optimal Locations for Power Stations and Their Impact on Industrial Symbiosis Planning under Transition toward Low-carbon Power Sector in Japan Reviewed

    Shiraki, H, Ashina, S, Kameyama, Y, Hashimoto, S, Fujita, T

    Journal of Cleaner Production   Vol. 114   page: 81 - 94   2016

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  38. 市区町村スケールでの低炭素社会シナリオ分析と地域比較

    白木裕斗, 芦名秀一

    第31回エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス     2015

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  39. 寒冷農村地域における家庭の電力消費特性

    白木裕斗, 中村省吾, 五味馨, 芦名秀一

    第24回日本エネルギー学会大会予稿集     2015

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  40. Impacts of Regional Economic Development with Industrial Symbiosis on Shifting Low Carbon Energy Systems in Municipality Scale in Japan: Case Study in North Coastal Area of Fukushima Prefecture

    Shiraki H, Ashina S, Ohnishi S

    The 8th Conference of the International Society for Industrial Ecology     2015

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  41. 環境配慮型経営による省エネ技術導入・燃料転換の障壁の除去とその効果の推計 Reviewed

    白木裕斗

    サステイナブルマネジメント   Vol. 13 ( 1,2 ) page: 84 - 98   2014

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  42. 多地域電源計画モデルを用いた2050年までのわが国電力部門における低炭素化シナリオの検討

    芦名秀一, 白木裕斗

    第33回エネルギー・資源学会研究発表会     2014

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  43. 太陽光・風力発電の短周期・長周期の変動性を考慮した再生可能エネルギーの導入可能性分析

    白木裕斗, 芦名秀一

    第30回エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス     2014

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  44. 8-4-1 Feasibility Study on Low Carbon Energy System in Municipality Scale in Japan : Case Study in So-so Area of Fukushima Prefecture

    ASHINA Shuichi, SHIRAKI Hiroto, TOGAWA Takuya

    Proceedings of the Annual Conference of The Japan Institute of Energy   Vol. 23   page: 302 - 303   2014

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (conference, symposium, etc.)   Publisher:The Japan Institute of Energy  

    In order to achieve long-term GHG reduction target in Japan (80% reduction from 1990 level), it is important to take actions in national scale as well as sub-national (or local) scale, such as municipalities. However, due to lack of basic information of energy supply and consumption in sub-national scale, designing low carbon society scenarios faces many difficulties to proceed. In the paper, we have analyzed energy supply and consumption structure and summarized as an Energy Balance Table (EBT), and investigate future trend and feasibility of achieving low carbon society in sub-national scale. So-so area of Fukushima prefecture is selected as a target area. It is found from the results that trend of energy supply and consumption in sub-national scale is totally different from national scale trend.

    DOI: 10.20550/jietaikaiyoushi.23.0_302

    CiNii Books

  45. 再生可能エネルギーを活用する再開発等に対する容積率緩和制度の提案 Reviewed

    松橋啓介, 白木裕斗, 芦名秀一, 有賀敏典

    土木学会論文集G   Vol. 70 ( 6 ) page: Ⅱ_81 - Ⅱ_86   2014

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  46. Assessment of Large Scale Penetration of Variable Renewables in Japan Considering Suppression of Power Fluctuation Reviewed

    Shiraki, H, Ashina, S

    Grand Renewable Energy 2014     2014

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  47. 燃料転換の速度のモデル化とエネルギーモデルへの適用

    白木裕斗, 田崎智宏, 松橋啓介, 芦名秀一, 森口祐一

    環境科学会2013年年会     2013

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  48. Effects of Low Carbon Energy Transition on Future Fossil Fuel Prices with an Energy Resource Model Reviewed

    Shiraki, H, Ashina, S

    36th IAEE (International Association for Energy Economics) International Conference     2013

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  49. 多地域電源計画モデルを用いた2020年の日本電力部門における再生可能エネルギー導入シナリオの検討 Reviewed

    白木裕斗, 芦名秀一, 亀山康子, 森口祐一, 橋本征二

    エネルギー・資源   Vol. 33 ( 1 ) page: 1 - 10   2012

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  50. 技術の普及速度を考慮した世界の温室効果ガス削減シナリオの検討

    白木裕斗, 芦名秀一

    第28回エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス     2012

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  51. The impact on Climate change mitigation policy of nuclear policy changing in Asia Reviewed

    Shiraki, H, Ashina, S, Akashi, O, Kameyama, Y, Moriguchi, Y

    3rd IAEE (International Association for Energy Economics) Asian Conference     2012

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  52. 地域性を考慮した再生可能エネルギーの導入に関する研究

    白木裕斗, 芦名秀一, 亀山康子, 森口祐一

    第27回エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス     2011

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  53. 金属資源回収プロセスにおけるライフサイクルアセスメント

    渡邉望, 白木裕斗, 加藤格

    分離技術会年会2009     2009

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  54. 色素増感太陽電池のLCA

    白木裕斗, 渡邉望, 永吉浩, 加藤格

    分離技術年会2008     2008

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  55. LCA of Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells Reviewed

    Shiraki, H, Watanabe, N, Nagayoshi, H, Gates, J, Kato, I

    International Conference on Separation Science and Technology     2008

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▼display all

Books 1

  1. 脱炭素社会のエネルギーを考える <高校生・高専生向けテキスト>

    柳下正治, 荒井眞一, 磐田朋子, 木村浩, 白木裕斗, 西岡秀三, 松橋啓介( Role: Contributor ,  第二章 日本のエネルギーの状況,第三章 脱炭素社会のエネルギーシステムを考える,資料編)

    一般社団法人 環境政策対話研究所  2021.10 

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    Language:Japanese Book type:Textbook, survey, introduction

MISC 2

  1. Correction to: EMF 35 JMIP study for Japan’s long-term climate and energy policy: scenario designs and key findings (Sustainability Science, (2021), 16, 2, (355-374), 10.1007/s11625-021-00913-2) Reviewed

    Sugiyama M, Fujimori S, Wada K, Oshiro K, Kato E, Komiyama R, Silva Herran D, Matsuo Y, Shiraki H., Ju Y

    Sustainability Science   Vol. 16 ( 5 ) page: 1771   2021.1

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (bulletin of university, research institution)   Publisher:Sustainability Science  

    In the original publication of the article, data availability was missing and it is provided in this correction. The scenario data is available at https:// doi. org/ 10. 5281/ zenodo. 48176 56.

    DOI: 10.1007/s11625-021-00992-1

    Scopus

  2. 地方自治体を対象とした低炭素社会シナリオ分析モデルの開発と福島県への適用

    芦名秀一, 白木裕斗, 大城賢, 岡和孝, 日比野剛

    日本エネルギー学会大会講演要旨集   Vol. 24th   page: 272 - 273   2015.7

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    Language:Japanese  

    J-GLOBAL

Presentations 29

  1. 市区町村スケールでの脱炭素シナリオに対する国産合成燃料の影響評価 -福岡県北九州市を対象として-

    伊藤悠太,白木裕斗

    第41回エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス  2025.1  エネルギー・資源学会

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    Event date: 2025.1

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:東京   Country:Japan  

  2. CO2フリー水素の国内製造が2050年の日本の電源構成に与える影響について

    伊丹敬人,白木裕斗

    第41回エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス  2025.1  エネルギー・資源学会

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    Event date: 2025.1

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Poster presentation  

    Venue:東京   Country:Japan  

  3. Scenarios in Japan’s Energy and Climate Policy:A Case for Greater Adaptability and ELSI Integration

    Manuela G. Hartwig,Masahiro Sugiyama,Hiroto Shiraki

    JSER 41st Conference on Energy, Economy, and Environment  2025.1 

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    Event date: 2025.1

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Country:Japan  

  4. Chinese Power Supply Compositions Under the Carbon Neutrality Targets Considering Future Industrial Power Demand By Province

    Zhenjun Wang, Hiroto Shiraki

    JSER 41st Conference on Energy, Economy, and Environment  2025.1 

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    Event date: 2025.1

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Country:Japan  

  5. The pace of hydrogen and electricity adoption in Japan’s demand-side decarbonization process Some Insights Based on Japan Model Intercomparison Project 2 (JMIP2) Net Zero International conference

    Tao CAO,Eamon Krishna FRAZER,Masahiro SUGIYAMA,Shinichiro FUJIMORI,Kenichi WADA, Hiroto SHIRAKI,Etsushi KATO,Yuhji MATSUO,Osamu NISHIURA,Ken OSHIRO,Takashi OTSUKI,Fuminori SANO,Hiroki YOSHIDA

    2024.11  The Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium

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    Event date: 2024.11

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Country:Korea, Republic of  

  6. 複数の脱炭素燃料を考慮した市区町村スケールでの脱炭素シナリオ分析-福岡県北九州市を対 象として-

    伊藤悠太, 白木 裕斗

    第32回地球環境シンポジウム  2024.9  土木学会地球環境委員会

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    Event date: 2024.9

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:熊本   Country:Japan  

  7. 数理モデル分析を踏まえたコンジョイント分析による 2040 年の電力部門のビジョンの評価

    稲田悠人,白木裕斗,堀啓子

    第32回地球環境シンポジウム  2024.9  土木学会地球環境委員会

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    Event date: 2024.9

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:熊本   Country:Japan  

  8. 個人農家・農業法人におけるソーラーシェアリングの実施意向の分析

    大橋勇介,白木裕斗,村上一真

    第32回地球環境シンポジウム  2024.9  土木学会地球環境委員会

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    Event date: 2024.9

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:熊本   Country:Japan  

  9. Evaluation of Use of Scenarios in Japan’s Energy and Climate Policymaking

    Manuela G. Hartwig,Masahiro Sugiyama,Hiroto Shiraki

    SEEPS 29th Annual Conference  2024.9 

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    Event date: 2024.9

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Country:Japan  

  10. 一般家庭と企業における電気自動車導入意思の要因分析 Invited

    白木裕斗

    環境科学会 2024年会  2024.9  環境科学会

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    Event date: 2024.9

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (invited, special)  

    Venue:東京   Country:Japan  

  11. 日本の脱炭素の実現可能性評価-障壁の相互関係を踏まえて-

    白木裕斗,杉山昌広,Ju Yiyi

    第43回エネルギー・資源学会研究発表会  2024.8  エネルギー・資源学会

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    Event date: 2024.8

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:東京   Country:Japan  

  12. Exploring the Composition of Japan’s Future Energy System Through the Japan Model Intercomparison Platform 2:Net Zero

    Eamon Krishna FRAZER,Tao CAO,Masahiro SUGIYAMA,Shinichiro FUJIMORI,Kenichi WADA, Hiroto SHIRAKI,Etsushi KATO,Yuhji MATSUO,Osamu NISHIURA,Ken OSHIRO,Takashi OTSUKI,Fuminori SANO,Hiroki YOSHIDA

    43rd Annual Meeting   2024.8 

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    Event date: 2024.8

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Country:Japan  

  13. 複数の脱炭素燃料を考慮した市区町村スケールでの脱炭素シナリオ分析 -福岡県北九州市を対象として-

    伊藤悠太,白木裕斗

    第40回エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス  2024.1  エネルギー・資源学会

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    Event date: 2024.1

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:東京   Country:Japan  

  14. デマンドレスポンス資源量の不確実性を考慮した電力システム分析 ~貨物車と乗用車の違いに着目して~

    國武星佑,白木裕斗

    第40回エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス  2024.1  エネルギー・資源学会

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    Event date: 2024.1

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:東京   Country:Japan  

  15. 市区町村スケールの脱炭素シナリオにおける合成燃料の導入可能性の検討―北海道釧路市を対象として―

    伊藤悠太, 白木 裕斗

    第31回地球環境シンポジウム  2023.9.21  土木学会地球環境委員会

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    Event date: 2023.9

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:滋賀   Country:Japan  

  16. デマンドレスポンス資源量の不確実性を考慮した電力システム分析

    國武星佑, 白木裕斗

    第42回エネルギー・資源学会研究発表会  2023.8 

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    Event date: 2023.8

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:大阪   Country:Japan  

  17. Assessment of generation mix in 2030 using high resolution power dispatch model International conference

    Shiraki, H

    The 27th AIM International Workshop  2021.9.30 

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Poster presentation  

  18. Estimation of Flexibility Resources for Power System Stabilization under a Long-term Low Carbon Scenario International conference

    Hiroto SHIRAKI, Ken Oshiro, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa

    The 24th AIM International Workshop  2018.11.5 

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

  19. Integrated Assessment and Rapid Technological Changes - toward shorter IPCC cycle International conference

    Hiroto Shiraki, Masahiro Sugiyama

    International Energy Workshop  2018.6.19 

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

  20. Perceived Feasibility of Japan’s decarbonization transition: Expert Perspectives International conference

    Ju, Y, Sugiyama, M, Shiraki, H

    14th IAMC Annual Meeting 2021  2021.11.29 

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

  21. Preliminary assessment of generation mix in 2050 using power dispatch model with long-term chronological data International conference

    Shiraki, H

    The 26th AIM International Workshop  2020.9.2 

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Poster presentation  

  22. The role of hydrogen power generation in the low-carbon electricity grid International conference

    Hiroto Shiraki, Ai Fujiwara

    The 25th AIM International Workshop  2019.11.18 

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Poster presentation  

    Venue:Ibaraki  

  23. 企業における電気自動車の導入実態と導入意思の要因分析

    白木裕斗, 佐藤真, 村上一真

    第28回地球環境シンポジウム  2020.9.24 

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

  24. 住宅に対する住民評価の要因分析 - 省エネ性の影響 -

    藤本穂乃佳, 白木裕斗, 村上一真

    土木学会 第29回地球環境シンポジウム  2021.9.27 

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

  25. 輸送効率を考慮した地域別自動車CO2排出量の要因分解

    白木裕斗, 松本健一, 重富陽介, 榎原友樹, 越智雄輝, 小川祐貴

    第38回エネルギー・資源学会研究発表会  2018.6.10 

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

    Venue:大阪  

  26. 長期低排出発展戦略下の電力システムにおける再生可能エネルギーの役割:EMF35 JMIPからの含意 Invited

    白木裕斗

    再生可能エネルギー・モデリングに関する研究ワークショップ  2020.11.19 

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    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (invited, special)  

  27. 電力需要の不確実性を考慮した電力システム分析

    白木裕斗

    第40回エネルギー・資源学会研究発表会  2021.8.2 

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  28. デマンドレスポンス資源量の不確実性を考慮した 電力システム分析 ~貨物車と乗用車の違いに着目して~

    國武星佑, 白木裕斗

    第40回エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス  2024.1 

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  29. 複数の脱炭素燃料を考慮した 市区町村スケールでの脱炭素シナリオ分析 ―福岡県北九州市を対象として―

    伊藤悠太, 白木 裕斗

    第40回エネルギーシステム・経済・環境コンファレンス  2024.1 

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    Venue:東京  

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KAKENHI (Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research) 3

  1. 将来の不確実性を考慮した頑健な脱炭素電力システムシナリオ分析

    Grant number:21K14577  2021.4 - 2025.3

    科学研究費助成事業  若手研究

    白木 裕斗

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    Authorship:Principal investigator 

    Grant amount:\3770000 ( Direct Cost: \2900000 、 Indirect Cost:\870000 )

    脱炭素社会の実現に向けて、脱炭素電力システムへの移行が社会的に要請されており、移行に必要となる投資、移行した電力システムの姿を定量的に示す必要がある。しかし、現在、電力システムを取り巻く技術・経済状況は急激に変化しており(例えば、再生可能エネルギーや蓄電池のコスト、電化率)、その将来値にも大きな不確実性がある。
    本研究は、①網羅的な文献調査により、電力システムに関わるパラメータの将来予測値の幅を整理・見える化すること、②入力変数の確率分布を考慮可能な電力システムモデルにより、不確実性のもとでの頑健な脱炭素電力システム像を示すことを目的とする。
    2023年度は、開発した確率論的電力システムモデルを用いて、原子力政策、および、電気自動車(EV)・ヒートポンプ(HP)給湯器の普及の不確実性を考慮したシミュレーションを行った。加えて、将来の電力システムの社会選好の分布を同定するため、質問紙調査を用いたコンジョイント分析を行った。
    原子力政策の不確実性を考慮した分析では、最新の文献に基づき発電設備や蓄電池の将来コストを更新した上で、2050年脱炭素を実現する我が国の電源構成を定量化した。確実に原発が新設できると想定したシナリオでは、原発の利用が経済合理的となった一方、原発を利用できない可能性が30%を超える場合、原発の新設・リプレースは選択されず、変動性再生可能エネルギーを蓄電池等で補完する電源構成が経済合理的という結果が示された。
    電力需要の不確実性を考慮した分析では、EVやHP給湯器の普及水準が異なる複数の不確実性シナリオの下で、2050年脱炭素を達成する我が国の電源構成を推計した。分析の結果、EVやHP給湯器の普及により、2050年の電力需要量が約10~20%増加することが明らかになった。また、EVやHP給湯器の普及確率が高くなるほど太陽光発電や水素発電が増加すると共に、夜間の電力需要の増加に対応するため、供給安定性が高く、脱炭素電源である水素発電の発電量が上昇することが示された。
    将来の電力システムの社会選好に関するコンジョイント分析では、我が国のエネルギー政策の基本方針であるS+3E(安全性、経済性、環境適合性、安定供給性)を対象に、それぞれの属性に対する人々の選好を定量化した。分析の結果、我が国の温室効果ガス削減目標に適合する電力システムを前提とした場合、経済性・安全性・安定供給性の低下に対する選好が有意に低いこと、経済性・安定高級性の相対重要度が高いことなどが明らかとなった。
    原子力発電の利用可能性や電気自動車・ヒートポンプ給湯器の普及量を対象として、将来の不確実性を考慮したシミュレーション分析を実施できた。これらのシミュレーションでは、2022年度に提案した"感度解析型の確率計画法"(あえて単一の確率分布を想定することを避け、複数の将来確率シナリオを網羅的に分析する手法)を適用しており、シミュレーションの方法論についても学術的な知見を継続的に蓄積している。また、これらの確率計画法の改善に加えて、入力データのアップデート、および、不確実性分析の対象とするエネルギー機器の拡張を実施できている。これらの研究成果については、学会で発表しており、学術論文の投稿に向けた準備も進めている。
    加えて、エネルギー政策の基本方針であるS+3E(安全性、経済性、環境適合性、安定供給性)に対する人々の選好を定量化するコンジョイント分析を実施するなど、当初計画以上の研究を実施できている。
    2023年度までに、当初の計画通り、将来パラメータ分布の同定、および、不確実性を考慮したシミュレーション分析を実施できた。加えて、電力システムに関する人々の社会選好を定量化するコンジョイント分析を実施できた。2024年度はこれらの研究成果を学術論文化し、投稿する。2022年度以降に提案した"感度解析型の確率計画法"について、論理的妥当性・有用性があることを示すため、リアルオプション分析等の関連する学術論文を精査することで、関連する学術領域における既存の知見を踏まえたフレームワークとして位置づける。

  2. 世界全域を対象とした技術・経済・社会的な実現可能性を考慮した脱炭素社会への道筋に関する研究

    2021.4 - 2024.3

    環境研究総合推進費 

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    Grant type:Competitive

  3. 将来の不確実性を考慮した頑健な脱炭素電力システムシナリオ分析

    2021.4 - 2024.3

    科学研究費補助金 若手研究 

    白木裕斗

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    Grant type:Competitive

 

Teaching Experience (On-campus) 6

  1. 持続可能性と環境学

    2024

  2. Energy and Environmental Systems

    2024

  3. 途上国開発特論I

    2023

  4. 持続可能性と環境学

    2023

  5. 環境情報演習

    2023

  6. 持続可能性と環境学

    2023

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Social Contribution 7

  1. なごや環境大学主催講座《脱炭素を考える》基礎講座 次世代エネルギーワークショップ

    Role(s):Lecturer, Advisor

    2024.2

  2. 2023年度次世代エネルギーワークショップ名古屋

    Role(s):Lecturer, Advisor, Informant

    名古屋市立大学  2023.7 - 2023.8

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    Audience: College students

    Type:Visiting lecture

  3. FY2021 Asia Fieldwork

    Role(s):Lecturer

    2022.1

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    Audience: College students

    Type:Visiting lecture

  4. A selection of 2021's highlighted research - Climate

    Springer Nature  2022.1

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    Audience: Scientific

    Type:Internet

  5. 2021年度高校生ノーザンカンファレンス

    Role(s):Lecturer, Advisor, Informant

    立命館慶祥高等学校  2021.10 - 2021.12

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    Audience: High school students

    Type:Visiting lecture

  6. 2021年度次世代エネルギーワークショップ名古屋

    Role(s):Lecturer, Advisor, Informant

    名古屋市立大学  2021.7 - 2021.8

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    Audience: College students

    Type:Visiting lecture

  7. 日本版気候若者会議

    Role(s):Lecturer, Advisor

    2021.6

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    Audience: College students, Graduate students, General

    Type:Lecture

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Academic Activities 7

  1. 環境・資源編集小委員会(71小委員会) 委員 International contribution

    Role(s):Review, evaluation, Peer review

    土木学会 論文集編集委員会  2022.4 - 2024.3

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    Type:Peer review 

  2. 第31回地球環境シンポジウム実行小委員会 委員長 International contribution

    Role(s):Planning, management, etc.

    土木学会 地球環境委員会  2022 - 2023

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    Type:Competition, symposium, etc. 

  3. Sustainability science Editor International contribution

    Role(s):Review, evaluation, Peer review

    Springer Nature  2021.4

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    Type:Peer review 

  4. 地球環境研究論文編集小委員会 委員 International contribution

    Role(s):Review, evaluation

    土木学会 地球環境委員会  2021.4

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    Type:Academic society, research group, etc. 

  5. 幹事会 幹事 International contribution

    Role(s):Planning, management, etc.

    土木学会 地球環境委員会  2021.4

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    Type:Academic society, research group, etc. 

  6. 代議員

    エネルギー・資源学会  2018.4

  7. サマーワークショップ 幹事

    Role(s):Planning, management, etc.

    エネルギー・資源学会  2014.4

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    Type:Academic society, research group, etc. 

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