Authorship：Last author,　Corresponding author   Language：English   Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher：Elsevier {BV}  

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that has been ongoing since 2019 is still ongoing and how to control it is one of the international issues to be addressed. Antiviral drugs that reduce the viral load in terms of reducing the risk of secondary infection are important. For the general control of emerging infectious diseases, establishing an efficient method to evaluate candidate therapeutic agents will lead to a rapid response. We evaluated clinical trial designs for viral entry inhibitors that have the potential to be effective pre-exposure prophylactic drugs in addition to reducing viral load after infection. We used a previously developed simulation of clinical trials based on a mathematical model of within-host viral infection dynamics to evaluate sample sizes in clinical trials of viral entry inhibitors against COVID-19. We assumed four measures as outcomes, namely change in log10-transformed viral load from symptom onset, PCR positive ratio, log10-transformed viral load, and cumulative viral load, and then sample sizes were calculated for drugs with 99 % and 95 % antiviral efficacy. Consistent with previous results, we found that sample sizes could be dramatically reduced for all outcomes used in an analysis by adopting inclusion/exclusion criteria such that only patients in the early post-infection period would be included in a clinical trial. A comparison of sample sizes across outcomes demonstrated an optimal measurement schedule associated with the nature of the outcome measured for the evaluation of drug efficacy. In particular, the sample sizes calculated from the change in viral load and from viral load tended to be small when measurements were taken at earlier time points after treatment initiation. For the cumulative viral load, the sample size was lower than that from the other outcomes when the stricter inclusion/exclusion criteria to include patients whose time since onset is earlier than 2 days was used. We concluded that the design of efficient clinical trials should consider the inclusion/exclusion criteria and measurement schedules, as well as outcome selection based on sample size, personnel and budget needed to conduct the trial, and the importance of the outcome regarding the medical and societal requirements. This study provides insights into clinical trial design for a variety of situations, especially addressing infectious disease prevalence and feasible trial sizes. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".

DOI： 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111403

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Language：English   Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher：Public Library of Science (PLoS)  

Mutations continue to accumulate within the SARS-CoV-2 genome, and the ongoing epidemic has shown no signs of ending. It is critical to predict problematic mutations that may arise in clinical environments and assess their properties in advance to quickly implement countermeasures against future variant infections. In this study, we identified mutations resistant to remdesivir, which is widely administered to SARS-CoV-2-infected patients, and discuss the cause of resistance. First, we simultaneously constructed eight recombinant viruses carrying the mutations detected in in vitro serial passages of SARS-CoV-2 in the presence of remdesivir. We confirmed that all the mutant viruses didn’t gain the virus production efficiency without remdesivir treatment. Time course analyses of cellular virus infections showed significantly higher infectious titers and infection rates in mutant viruses than wild type virus under treatment with remdesivir. Next, we developed a mathematical model in consideration of the changing dynamic of cells infected with mutant viruses with distinct propagation properties and defined that mutations detected in in vitro passages canceled the antiviral activities of remdesivir without raising virus production capacity. Finally, molecular dynamics simulations of the NSP12 protein of SARS-CoV-2 revealed that the molecular vibration around the RNA-binding site was increased by the introduction of mutations on NSP12. Taken together, we identified multiple mutations that affected the flexibility of the RNA binding site and decreased the antiviral activity of remdesivir. Our new insights will contribute to developing further antiviral measures against SARS-CoV-2 infection.

DOI： 10.1371/journal.ppat.1011231

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Appropriate isolation guidelines for COVID-19 patients are warranted. Currently, isolating for fixed time is adopted in most countries. However, given the variability in viral dynamics between patients, some patients may no longer be infectious by the end of isolation, whereas others may still be infectious. Utilizing viral test results to determine isolation length would minimize both the risk of prematurely ending isolation of infectious patients and the unnecessary individual burden of redundant isolation of noninfectious patients. In this study, we develop a data-driven computational framework to compute the population-level risk and the burden of different isolation guidelines with rapid antigen tests (i.e., lateral flow tests). Here, we show that when the detection limit is higher than the infectiousness threshold values, additional consecutive negative results are needed to ascertain infectiousness status. Further, rapid antigen tests should be designed to have lower detection limits than infectiousness threshold values to minimize the length of prolonged isolation.

DOI： 10.1038/s41467-022-32663-9

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Language：English   Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher：Springer Science and Business Media {LLC}  

BACKGROUND: Multiple waves of the COVID-19 epidemic have hit most countries by the end of 2021. Most of those waves are caused by emergence and importation of new variants. To prevent importation of new variants, combination of border control and contact tracing is essential. However, the timing of infection inferred by interview is influenced by recall bias and hinders the contact tracing process. METHODS: We propose a novel approach to infer the timing of infection, by employing a within-host model to capture viral load dynamics after the onset of symptoms. We applied this approach to ascertain secondary transmission which can trigger outbreaks. As a demonstration, the 12 initial reported cases in Singapore, which were considered as imported because of their recent travel history to Wuhan, were analyzed to assess whether they are truly imported. RESULTS: Our approach suggested that 6 cases were infected prior to the arrival in Singapore, whereas other 6 cases might have been secondary local infection. Three among the 6 potential secondary transmission cases revealed that they had contact history to previously confirmed cases. CONCLUSIONS: Contact trace combined with our approach using viral load data could be the key to mitigate the risk of importation of new variants by identifying cases as early as possible and inferring the timing of infection with high accuracy.

DOI： 10.1186/s12879-022-07646-2

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Language：English   Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher：Elsevier {BV}  

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron subvariant BA.2 has spread in many countries, replacing the earlier Omicron subvariant BA.1 and other variants. Here, using a cell culture infection assay, we quantified the intrinsic sensitivity of BA.2 and BA.1 compared with other variants of concern, Alpha, Gamma, and Delta, to five approved-neutralizing antibodies and antiviral drugs. Our assay revealed the diverse sensitivities of these variants to antibodies, including the loss of response of both BA.1 and BA.2 to casirivimab and of BA.1 to imdevimab. In contrast, EIDD-1931 and nirmatrelvir showed a more conserved activities to these variants. The viral response profile combined with mathematical analysis estimated differences in antiviral effects among variants in the clinical concentrations. These analyses provide essential evidence that gives insight into variant emergence's impact on choosing optimal drug treatment.

DOI： 10.1016/j.antiviral.2022.105372

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Language：English   Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher：MDPI AG  

This was a retrospective cohort study, which aimed to investigate the factors associated with hesitancy to receive a third dose of a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine. A paper-based questionnaire survey was administered to all participants. This study included participants who provided answers in the questionnaire about whether they had an intent to receive a third dose of a vaccine. Data on sex, age, area of residence, adverse reactions after the second vaccination, whether the third vaccination was desired, and reasons to accept or hesitate over the booster vaccination were retrieved. Among the 2439 participants, with a mean (±SD) age of 52.6 ± 18.9 years, and a median IgG-S antibody titer of 324.9 (AU/mL), 97.9% of participants indicated their intent to accept a third vaccination dose. The logistic regression revealed that participants of a younger age (OR = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.96–1.00) and with a higher antibody level (OR = 2.52; 95% CI: 1.27–4.99) were positively associated with hesitancy over the third vaccine. The efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccine and concerns about adverse reactions had a significant impact on behavior regarding the third vaccination. A rapid increase in the booster dose rate is needed to control the pandemic, and specific approaches should be taken with these groups that are likely to hesitate over the third vaccine, subsequently increasing booster contact rate.

DOI： 10.3390/vaccines10040515

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Authorship：Lead author   Language：English   Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher：Public Library of Science ({PLoS})  

In HIV-1-infected individuals, transmitted/founder (TF) virus contributes to establish new infection and expands during the acute phase of infection, while chronic control (CC) virus emerges during the chronic phase of infection. TF viruses are more resistant to interferon-alpha (IFN-α)-mediated antiviral effects than CC virus, however, its virological relevance in infected individuals remains unclear. Here we perform an experimental-mathematical investigation and reveal that IFN-α strongly inhibits cell-to-cell infection by CC virus but only weakly affects that by TF virus. Surprisingly, IFN-α enhances cell-free infection of HIV-1, particularly that of CC virus, in a virus-cell density-dependent manner. We further demonstrate that LY6E, an IFN-stimulated gene, can contribute to the density-dependent enhancement of cell-free HIV-1 infection. Altogether, our findings suggest that the major difference between TF and CC viruses can be explained by their resistance to IFN-α-mediated inhibition of cell-to-cell infection and their sensitivity to IFN-α-mediated enhancement of cell-free infection.

DOI： 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010053

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Authorship：Last author,　Corresponding author   Language：English   Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher：{AMED} {iD}3 Catalyst Unit  

<p>To evaluate the effects of antiviral drugs against coronavirus disease (COVID-19), we calculated the sample size needed to detect significant differences in daily viral load in randomized controlled trials. While calculating sample sizes, simulated viral loads that mimicked longitudinal clinical data were used. The sample size computed from the viral load was the smallest 2 to 4 days after trial participation, while the smallest sample size computed from the positive rate was 4 to 7 days after clinical trial participation.</p>

DOI： 10.33611/trs.2021-025

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Authorship：Lead author   Language：English   Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher：Life Science Alliance, LLC  

The duration of viral shedding is determined by a balance between de novo infection and removal of infected cells. That is, if infection is completely blocked with antiviral drugs (100% inhibition), the duration of viral shedding is minimal and is determined by the length of virus production. However, some mathematical models predict that if infected individuals are treated with antiviral drugs with efficacy below 100%, viral shedding may last longer than without treatment because further de novo infections are driven by entry of the virus into partially protected, uninfected cells at a slower rate. Using a simple mathematical model, we quantified SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in non-human primates and characterized the kinetics of viral shedding. We counterintuitively found that treatments initiated early, such as 0.5 d after virus inoculation, with intermediate to relatively high efficacy (30–70% inhibition of virus replication) yield a prolonged duration of viral shedding (by about 6.0 d) compared with no treatment.

DOI： 10.26508/LSA.202101049

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Language：English   Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher：{eLife} Sciences Publications, Ltd  

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, two mainstream guidelines for defining when to end the isolation of SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals have been in use: the one-size-fits-all approach (i.e. patients are isolated for a fixed number of days) and the personalized approach (i.e. based on repeated testing of isolated patients). We use a mathematical framework to model within-host viral dynamics and test different criteria for ending isolation. By considering a fixed time of 10 days since symptom onset as the criterion for ending isolation, we estimated that the risk of releasing an individual who is still infectious is low (0–6.6%). However, this policy entails lengthy unnecessary isolations (4.8–8.3 days). In contrast, by using a personalized strategy, similar low risks can be reached with shorter prolonged isolations. The obtained findings provide a scientific rationale for policies on ending the isolation of SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals.

DOI： 10.7554/eLife.69340

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Other Link： https://cdn.elifesciences.org/articles/69340/elife-69340-v1.xml

Authorship：Lead author   Language：English   Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher：Public Library of Science (PLoS)  

<sec id="sec001">
<title>Background</title>
Development of an effective antiviral drug for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global health priority. Although several candidate drugs have been identified through in vitro and in vivo models, consistent and compelling evidence from clinical studies is limited. The lack of evidence from clinical trials may stem in part from the imperfect design of the trials. We investigated how clinical trials for antivirals need to be designed, especially focusing on the sample size in randomized controlled trials.


</sec>
<sec id="sec002">
<title>Methods and findings</title>
A modeling study was conducted to help understand the reasons behind inconsistent clinical trial findings and to design better clinical trials. We first analyzed longitudinal viral load data for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) without antiviral treatment by use of a within-host virus dynamics model. The fitted viral load was categorized into 3 different groups by a clustering approach. Comparison of the estimated parameters showed that the 3 distinct groups were characterized by different virus decay rates (<italic>p</italic>-value &lt; 0.001). The mean decay rates were 1.17 d⁻¹ (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.27 d⁻¹), 0.777 d⁻¹ (0.716 to 0.838 d⁻¹), and 0.450 d⁻¹ (0.378 to 0.522 d⁻¹) for the 3 groups, respectively. Such heterogeneity in virus dynamics could be a confounding variable if it is associated with treatment allocation in compassionate use programs (i.e., observational studies).


Subsequently, we mimicked randomized controlled trials of antivirals by simulation. An antiviral effect causing a 95% to 99% reduction in viral replication was added to the model. To be realistic, we assumed that randomization and treatment are initiated with some time lag after symptom onset. Using the duration of virus shedding as an outcome, the sample size to detect a statistically significant mean difference between the treatment and placebo groups (1:1 allocation) was 13,603 and 11,670 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) per group if all patients are enrolled regardless of timing of randomization. The sample size was reduced to 584 and 458 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) if only patients who are treated within 1 day of symptom onset are enrolled. We confirmed the sample size was similarly reduced when using cumulative viral load in log scale as an outcome.


We used a conventional virus dynamics model, which may not fully reflect the detailed mechanisms of viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. The model needs to be calibrated in terms of both parameter settings and model structure, which would yield more reliable sample size calculation.


</sec>
<sec id="sec003">
<title>Conclusions</title>
In this study, we found that estimated association in observational studies can be biased due to large heterogeneity in viral dynamics among infected individuals, and statistically significant effect in randomized controlled trials may be difficult to be detected due to small sample size. The sample size can be dramatically reduced by recruiting patients immediately after developing symptoms. We believe this is the first study investigated the study design of clinical trials for antiviral treatment using the viral dynamics model.


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DOI： 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003660

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The incubation period, or the time from infection to symptom onset, of COVID-19 has usually been estimated by using data collected through interviews with cases and their contacts. However, this estimation is influenced by uncertainty in the cases' recall of exposure time. We propose a novel method that uses viral load data collected over time since hospitalization, hindcasting the timing of infection with a mathematical model for viral dynamics. As an example, we used reported data on viral load for 30 hospitalized patients from multiple countries (Singapore, China, Germany, and Korea) and estimated the incubation period. The median, 2.5, and 97.5 percentiles of the incubation period were 5.85 days (95 % CI: 5.05, 6.77), 2.65 days (2.04, 3.41), and 12.99 days (9.98, 16.79), respectively, which are comparable to the values estimated in previous studies. Using viral load to estimate the incubation period might be a useful approach, especially when it is impractical to directly observe the infection event.

DOI： 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100454

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Language：English   Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher：Frontiers Media {SA}  

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused serious public health, social, and economic damage worldwide and effective drugs that prevent or cure COVID-19 are urgently needed. Approved drugs including Hydroxychloroquine, Remdesivir or Interferon were reported to inhibit the infection or propagation of severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), however, their clinical efficacies have not yet been well demonstrated. To identify drugs with higher antiviral potency, we screened approved anti-parasitic/anti-protozoal drugs and identified an anti-malarial drug, Mefloquine, which showed the highest anti-SARS-CoV-2 activity among the tested compounds. Mefloquine showed higher anti-SARS-CoV-2 activity than Hydroxychloroquine in VeroE6/TMPRSS2 and Calu-3 cells, with IC50 = 1.28 μM, IC90 = 2.31 μM, and IC99 = 4.39 μM in VeroE6/TMPRSS2 cells. Mefloquine inhibited viral entry after viral attachment to the target cell. Combined treatment with Mefloquine and Nelfinavir, a replication inhibitor, showed synergistic antiviral activity. Our mathematical modeling based on the drug concentration in the lung predicted that Mefloquine administration at a standard treatment dosage could decline viral dynamics in patients, reduce cumulative viral load to 7% and shorten the time until virus elimination by 6.1 days. These data cumulatively underscore Mefloquine as an anti-SARS-CoV-2 entry inhibitor.

DOI： 10.3389/fmicb.2021.651403

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Antiviral treatments targeting the coronavirus disease 2019 are urgently required. We screened a panel of already approved drugs in a cell culture model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and identified two new agents having higher antiviral potentials than the drug candidates such as remdesivir and chroloquine in VeroE6/TMPRSS2 cells: the anti-inflammatory drug cepharanthine and human immunodeficiency virus protease inhibitor nelfinavir. Cepharanthine inhibited SARS-CoV-2 entry through the blocking of viral binding to target cells, while nelfinavir suppressed viral replication partly by protease inhibition. Consistent with their different modes of action, synergistic effect of this combined treatment to limit SARS-CoV-2 proliferation was highlighted. Mathematical modeling in vitro antiviral activity coupled with the calculated total drug concentrations in the lung predicts that nelfinavir will shorten the period until viral clearance by 4.9 days and the combining cepharanthine/nelfinavir enhanced their predicted efficacy. These results warrant further evaluation of the potential anti-SARS-CoV-2 activity of cepharanthine and nelfinavir.

DOI： 10.1016/j.isci.2021.102367

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Language：English   Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher：The Royal Society  

Viral tests including polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests are recommended to diagnose COVID-19 infection during the acute phase of infection. A test should have high sensitivity; however, the sensitivity of the PCR test is highly influenced by viral load, which changes over time. Because it is difficult to collect data before the onset of symptoms, the current literature on the sensitivity of the PCR test before symptom onset is limited. In this study, we used a viral dynamics model to track the probability of failing to detect a case of PCR testing over time, including the presymptomatic period. The model was parametrized by using longitudinal viral load data collected from 30 hospitalized patients. The probability of failing to detect a case decreased toward symptom onset, and the lowest probability was observed 2 days after symptom onset and increased afterwards. The probability on the day of symptom onset was 1.0% (95% CI: 0.5 to 1.9) and that 2 days before symptom onset was 60.2% (95% CI: 57.1 to 63.2). Our study suggests that the diagnosis of COVID-19 by PCR testing should be done carefully, especially when the test is performed before or way after symptom onset. Further study is needed of patient groups with potentially different viral dynamics, such as asymptomatic cases.

DOI： 10.1098/rsif.2020.0947

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Language：Japanese   Publisher：PLoS Biology  

The scientific community is focused on developing antiviral therapies to mitigate the impacts of the ongoing novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. This will be facilitated by improved understanding of viral dynamics within infected hosts. Here, using a mathematical model in combination with published viral load data, we compare within-host viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with analogous dynamics of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. Our quantitative analyses using a mathematical model revealed that the within-host reproduction number at symptom onset of SARS-CoV-2 was statistically significantly larger than that of MERS-CoV and similar to that of SARS-CoV. In addition, the time from symptom onset to the viral load peak for SARS-CoV-2 infection was shorter than those of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. These findings suggest the difficulty of controlling SARS-CoV-2 infection by antivirals. We further used the viral dynamics model to predict the efficacy of potential antiviral drugs that have different modes of action. The efficacy was measured by the reduction in the viral load area under the curve (AUC). Our results indicate that therapies that block de novo infection or virus production are likely to be effective if and only if initiated before the viral load peak (which appears 2-3 days after symptom onset), but therapies that promote cytotoxicity of infected cells are likely to have effects with less sensitivity to the timing of treatment initiation. Furthermore, combining a therapy that promotes cytotoxicity and one that blocks de novo infection or virus production synergistically reduces the AUC with early treatment. Our unique modeling approach provides insights into the pathogenesis of SARSCoV- 2 and may be useful for development of antiviral therapies.

DOI： 10.2110/JSR.2020.113

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Authorship：Lead author   Language：English   Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher：Public Library of Science ({PLoS})  

Virus proliferation involves gene replication inside infected cells and transmission to new target cells. Once positive-strand RNA virus has infected a cell, the viral genome serves as a template for copying ("stay-strategy") or is packaged into a progeny virion that will be released extracellularly ("leave-strategy"). The balance between genome replication and virion release determines virus production and transmission efficacy. The ensuing trade-off has not yet been well characterized. In this study, we use hepatitis C virus (HCV) as a model system to study the balance of the two strategies. Combining viral infection cell culture assays with mathematical modeling, we characterize the dynamics of two different HCV strains (JFH-1, a clinical isolate, and Jc1-n, a laboratory strain), which have different viral release characteristics. We found that 0.63% and 1.70% of JFH-1 and Jc1-n intracellular viral RNAs, respectively, are used for producing and releasing progeny virions. Analysis of the Malthusian parameter of the HCV genome (i.e., initial proliferation rate) and the number of de novo infections (i.e., initial transmissibility) suggests that the leave-strategy provides a higher level of initial transmission for Jc1-n, whereas, in contrast, the stay-strategy provides a higher initial proliferation rate for JFH-1. Thus, theoretical-experimental analysis of viral dynamics enables us to better understand the proliferation strategies of viruses, which contributes to the efficient control of virus transmission. Ours is the first study to analyze the stay-leave trade-off during the viral life cycle and the significance of the replication-release switching mechanism for viral proliferation.

DOI： 10.1371/journal.pbio.3000562

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DOI： 10.1016/j.jtbi.2019.07.005

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Authorship：Lead author   Language：English   Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher：Springer Science and Business Media LLC  

DOI： 10.1186/s12976-017-0055-8

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Other Link： http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12976-017-0055-8/fulltext.html

Publishing type：Research paper, summary (national, other academic conference)  

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Language：Japanese   Publishing type：Article, review, commentary, editorial, etc. (scientific journal)   Publisher：The Japanese Society for Virology  

In a current life sciences research, we are in an era in which advanced technology emerging and utilize big data. Data-driven approaches such as machine learnings play an important role to analyze these datasets. However, limited clinical (time-course) datasets are available for infectious diseases, cancer, and other diseases. Especially in the case of emerging infectious disease outbreaks, clinical data obtained from a limited number of cases must be used to develop treatment strategies and public health policies. This means that many clinical data are not big data, which often makes the application of data-driven approaches difficult. In this paper, we mainly apply a mathematical model-based approach to the clinical data of COVID-19 and discuss how biologically important information can be extracted from the limited data and how they can benefit society.

DOI： 10.2222/jsv.72.39

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Authorship：Lead author   Language：Japanese   Publishing type：Research paper, summary (national, other academic conference)   Publisher：京都大学数理解析研究所  

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Other Link： http://hdl.handle.net/2433/251581

Authorship：Lead author   Language：Japanese   Publisher：京都大学数理解析研究所  

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Other Link： http://hdl.handle.net/2433/236964

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