Faculty Profiles - TANIKAWA, Hiroki

Material stock's overburden: Automatic spatial detection and estimation of domestic extraction and hidden material flows Reviewed

Keisuke Yoshida, Tomer Fishman, Keijiro Okuoka, Hiroki Tanikawa

RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING Vol. 123 page： 165 - 175 2017.8

Language：English Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal) Publisher：ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV

Anthropogenic material stocks are expanding at ever-increasing rates across the world, and their environmental and economic impacts draw more and more attention from academia, policy makers, and economic and environmental bodies. As the knowledge base regarding anthropogenic material stocks expands, it is important to not only comprehend the societal side of material stock growth but also its counterpart to the material balance the natural environment from which the materials used for stocks come from. However, due to difficulties of data procurement, and muted interest in materials which are considered low-value high volume, the environmental burdens related to construction minerals have received less attention so far despite the huge amounts involved. In this study, we employ geographic information systems (GIS) with digital elevation model (DEM) datasets, to form an automated method of detection and measurement of the anthropogenic disturbance of soil and earth at excavation and mining sites, which accounts not only for the material extracted for usage in the anthroposphere, but also its related unused extraction. This geographically explicit method allows to directly pinpoint the location and volume of anthropogenic disturbance. Using Japan as a case study, the results suggest that the ratio of unused extraction to used extraction may exceed 1:1 for construction minerals in Japan. We also find that the environmental effects of anthropogenic activity are bigger than natural soil disturbance by several orders of magnitude, highlighting the need to reduce raw material extraction and increase the efficient use of the existing material stock. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DOI： 10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.09.010

Global Patterns and Trends for Non-Metallic Minerals used for Construction Reviewed

Alessio Miatto, Heinz Schandl, Tomer Fishman, Hiroki Tanikawa

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY Vol. 21 ( 4 ) page： 924 - 937 2017.8

Language：English Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal) Publisher：WILEY

Despite accounting for almost 50% of global material use, nonmetallic minerals-mostly used for construction of buildings and infrastructure-are the material flow analysis (MFA) category with the highest uncertainty. The main reason for this is incomplete reporting in official national statistics because of ease of availability and the low per-unit cost of these materials. However, the environmental burden associated with nonmetallic minerals, which include energy use for extraction and transport, land-use change, and disposal of large amounts of construction demolition waste, call for a thorough understanding of the magnitude of nonmetallic mineral flows. Previous estimates for nonmetallic minerals have used simplistic assumptions. This study aims to increase the precision of nonmetallic mineral accounts at national and global level using consumption of bitumen, bricks, cement, and railways in combination with technical coefficients from the engineering literature to infer the actual yearly consumption of nonmetallic minerals. We estimate the extraction of nonmetallic minerals and provide uncertainty estimates for the new accounts as well as information about consumption by different sectors. Analyzing the evolution of consumption for seven world regions, we find that, in North America and Europe, the consumption of nonmetallic minerals over the past 40 years has followed the growth patterns of population, whereas for all other regions consumption has been closely related to gross domestic product (GDP). A more accurate account of global and country-by-country extraction of nonmetallic minerals may provide insights into supply shortages and inform waste management strategies for construction and demolition waste.

DOI： 10.1111/jiec.12471

EcoBalance 2016-responsible value chains for sustainability (October 3-6, 2016, Kyoto, Japan) Reviewed

Feasibility of a new-generation nighttime light data for estimating in-use steel stock of buildings and civil engineering infrastructures Reviewed Open Access

Hanwei Liang, Liang Dong, Hiroki Tanikawa, Ning Zhang, Zhiqiu Gao, Xiao Luo

RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING Vol. 123 page： 11 - 23 2017.8

Language：English Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal) Publisher：ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV

Regional scale estimation of in-use steel stock (IUSS) using satellite observation of nighttime lights (NTL) is essential for urban resource consumption management and resource recovery monitoring. S-NPP VIIRS (Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership's Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) NTL product is newly released in 2013, which has enhancements in both spatial and radiometric resolutions compared with the DMSP-OLS (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's Operational Linescan System) NTL products. To evaluate whether these enhancements can improve the estimations of IUSS of buildings (IUSSB) and civil engineering infrastructure (IUSSCE), the S-NPP VIIRS NTL products were used to estimate IUSSB and IUSSCE at both sub-national level of Japan and national level of world, and their performances were compared with those of using DMSP-OLS radiance calibrated (RC) NTL data. Our results indicate that the S-NPP VIIRS NTL data can offer more accurate estimates of IUSSB and IUSSCE (R-2 values of 0.952 and 0.909) than those of DMSP-OLS RC NTL (R-2 of 0.929 and 0.884) at prefectural level of Japan. Similar to DMSP-OLS RC NTL product, urban NTL of S-NPP VIIRS data has a stronger relationship with IUSSB, and IUSSCE was more closely related to total NTL. At national level, S-NPP VIIRS NTL also showed better estimations of IUSSB and IUSSCE. We confirmed that dividing the world into different regional groups is also required for estimating IUSSB and IUSSCE from S-NPP VIIRS NIL For estimation of IUSSCE, two classifications including Asia region and Non-Asia region are appropriate when using S-NPP VIIRS NTL product, which is superior to DMSP-OLS RC NTL. For estimation of IUSSB, more classifications may be still required which is similar to DMSP-OLS RC NTL. Overall, our study indicated that S-NPP VIIRS data have greater capability in modeling IUSSB and IUSSCE than DMSP-OLS RC data. Our results are critical for ever-improvement of policy making on urban resource management. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DOI： 10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.04.001

Keisuke Nansai, Masaharu Motoshita, Ichiro Daigo, Seiji Hashimoto, Kiyotada Hayashi, Keiichiro Kanemoto, Aiichiro Kashiwagi, Yoshinori Kobayashi, Shinsuke Kondo, Yuki Kudoh, Yasunari Matsuno, Hiroki Tanikawa, Eiji Yamasue, Naoki Yoshikawa

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT Vol. 22 ( 7 ) page： 1165 - 1174 2017.7

How important are realistic building lifespan assumptions for material stock and demolition waste accounts? Reviewed

Alessio Miatto, Heinz Schandl, Hiroki Tanikawa

RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING Vol. 122 page： 143 - 154 2017.7

Language：English Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal) Publisher：ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV

Accurate assessments of construction materials stocked in the built environment have received increased attention in the Industrial Ecology literature over the past few years. Many recent models that estimate building material inflows, stock accumulation and end-of-life waste, however, rely on simplistic assumptions about the lifespan of built infrastructure. While several probability distributions have been proposed (normal, Weibull, log-normal, and so on) there is no agreement on which model is best suited for modelling the accumulation of building material stock at urban and national levels. In this study we introduce an analysis of the hazard rate of buildings and discuss alternative distribution functions to model lifespan, testing the fit of five commonly used distributions to real data from the cities of Nagoya (Japan), Wakayama (Japan), and Salford (UK). The results highlight how cities with fast replacement rates are overall best modelled by right-skewed distributions, but single cohort levels express independent behaviours based on their characteristics. We investigate the sensitivity of a top-down stock accumulation model to the choice of different distributions and input parameters uncertainties. The results show that different lifespan distribution functions result in very similar overall stock accumulation at the national level, but have large impacts on calculated demolition waste flows. Differences are more pronounced for cities and the choice of a certain distribution will significantly affect the calculation of the average lifetime. Our results suggest that top-down national material stock accounts have high reliability, and are only weakly affected by the choice of one distribution over another. For cities, it is beneficial to use a distribution based on the characteristics of the buildings analysed, with regard to density and building characteristics. Stock accumulation research would profit from future bottom-up research into building lifespans to validate top-down estimation procedures. Crown Copyright (C) 2017 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DOI： 10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.01.015

Decoding the effect of socioeconomic transitions on carbon dioxide emissions: Analysis framework and application in megacity Chongqing from inland China Reviewed

Global socioeconomic material stocks rise 23-fold over the 20th century and require half of annual resource use Reviewed International coauthorship Open Access

Fridolin Krausmann, Dominik Wiedenhofer, Christian Lauk, Willi Haas, Hiroki Tanikawa, Tomer Fishman, Alessio Miatto, Heinz Schandl, Helmut Haberl

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Vol. 114 ( 8 ) page： 1880 - 1885 2017.2

Language：English Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal) Publisher：NATL ACAD SCIENCES

Human-made material stocks accumulating in buildings, infrastructure, and machinery play a crucial but underappreciated role in shaping the use of material and energy resources. Building, maintaining, and in particular operating in-use stocks of materials require raw materials and energy. Material stocks create long-term pathdependencies because of their longevity. Fostering a transition toward environmentally sustainable patterns of resource use requires a more complete understanding of stock-flow relations. Here we show that about half of all materials extracted globally by humans each year are used to build up or renew in-use stocks of materials. Based on a dynamic stock-flow model, we analyze stocks, inflows, and outflows of all materials and their relation to economic growth, energy use, and CO2 emissions from 1900 to 2010. Over this period, global material stocks increased 23-fold, reaching 792 Pg (+/- 5%) in 2010. Despite efforts to improve recycling rates, continuous stock growth precludes closing material loops; recycling still only contributes 12% of inflows to stocks. Stocks are likely to continue to grow, driven by large infrastructure and building requirements in emerging economies. A convergence of material stocks at the level of industrial countries would lead to a fourfold increase in global stocks, and CO2 emissions exceeding climate change goals. Reducing expected future increases of material and energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions will require decoupling of services from the stocks and flows of materials through, for example, more intensive utilization of existing stocks, longer service lifetimes, and more efficient design.

DOI： 10.1073/pnas.1613773114

Xin Tian, Miao Chang, Feng Shi, Hiroki Tanikawa

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION Vol. 142 page： 2114 - 2124 2017.1

Language：English Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal) Publisher：ELSEVIER SCI LTD

Understanding the impact of dramatic socioeconomic transitions on soaring CO2 emissions is essential for developing targeted and effective CO2 mitigation policies. Taking Chongqing as a representative case in inland China, we proposed an analysis framework to evaluate the socioeconomic transition effects on CO2 emissions during the period 1997-2012. Based on the framework, we found that the industrialization process, with its rapid expansion of construction and heavy manufacturing industries, had a strong impact on the structure of CO2 emissions growth. Meanwhile, the development of transport equipment manufacturing and high-tech industry contributed to low-carbon development. The framework further showed that the urbanization process contributed to the increased CO2 emissions mainly by intensive investments in the construction sector and changing urban household consumption. Particularly, the fast-growing urban population, the urban household consumption level, as well as the associated consumption pattern transition towards a growing demand for manufacturing products, transport, shelter, and services together lead to tripled urban household consumption related CO2 emissions. These empirical results suggest that a targeted CO2 mitigation policy in Chongqing should focus on multiple significant socioeconomic driving factors with diverse leading sectors. This implication should be applicable for other inland regions with similar geographical and socioeconomic features. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOI： 10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.11.072

EcoBalance 2016 - Responsible value chains for sustainability

NANSAI Keisuke, MOTOSHITA Masaharu, DAIGO Ichiro, HASHIMOTO Seiji, HAYASHI Kiyotada, KANEMOTO Keiichiro, KASHIWAGI Aiichiro, KOBAYASHI Yoshinori, KONDO Shinsuke, KUDOH Yuki, MATSUNO Yasunari, TANIKAWA Hiroki, YAMASUE Eiji, YOSHIKAWA Naoki

Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, Japan Vol. 13 ( 2 ) page： 180 - 189 2017

ESTABLISHMENT OF THREE-DIMENSIONAL SUBWAY GIS DATA FOR INUNDATION ANALYSIS IN URBAN AREA Reviewed

SUGIMOTO Kenji, OKUOKA Keijiro, TANIKAWA Hiroki

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research) Vol. 73 ( 5 ) page： I_283-I_289 2017

Language：English Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)

 The development of the city occurs not only above ground but also underground. Underground infrastructure is especially vulnerable to flood damage, caused by extreme events and natural disasters, as it forms the lowest layer un the hierarchy of urban structure. However, despite the increasing importance of urban inundation analysis, the lack of availability of data regarding underground space restricted analysis in previous studies. In this study, we established three-dimensional GIS data of subways using records and drawings of construction, which can be used for underground infrastructure inundation analysis in urban areas. Utilizing this established three-dimensional subway GIS data, we modeled and analyzed the areas of subway stations and train lines to be inundated by the projected Nankai Trough Earthquake. 82% of Nagoya city's Meiko Line close to the coastal area is expected to be submerged by an over 1m-deep flooding, and tsunami run-up through the train line is estimated to occur.

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.73.I_283

ESTIMATION OF LOST BUILDING STOCK DUE TO THE 2016 KUMAMOTO EARTHQUAKES Reviewed

SUGIMOTO Kenji, OKUOKA Keijiro, AKIYAMA Yuki, TANIKAWA Hiroki

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research) Vol. 73 ( 6 ) page： II_293-II_300 2017

Language：English Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)

 In order to restore and redevelop areas affected by natural disasters, understanding of the material inputs needed to restore the community back to a pre-disaster state and a plan for efficient disaster waste disposal are needed. Lost building stocks were estimated for Kumamoto Prefcture, which suffered severe damage by 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes, by estimating the spatial distribution of building stocks using a micro-building data, overlaying the distribution of seismic intensity, and framing the result in a collapse fragility curve. The result showed that 58% of building stocks in Kumamoto Prefecture were standing on areas that recorded a strong motion of seismic intensity 6-upper, and lost stocks form collapsed or damaged buildings amounted to 260.7 million ton, and it was revealed that half of the stocks were concrete by material.

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.73.II_293

The influence of wood use promotion on carbon fixation in urban and forest:Case study in Tokai district using geographical information Reviewed

ONO Satoshi, OKUOKA Keijiro, TANIKAWA Hiroki

Papers on Environmental Information Science Vol. 31 ( 0 ) page： 13-18 2017

Language：English Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)

<p>Wood has an important role in realizing a low-carbon society. This study estimated carbon stocks in urban and forest areas with a view to promoting wood use. The study involved network analysis using a geographic information system in forest areas and urban areas. The study explored six scenarios, including the substitution of wooden houses for non-wooden houses and extending the life span of houses. One scenario showed that substituting three percent of non-wooden houses and doubling the life span of wooden houses could fix 160 million tons of carbon. Moreover, this study visualized the gap between supply and demand for wood in urban and forest areas and analyzed the spatial distribution of supply and demand.<b> </b></p>

DOI： 10.11492/ceispapers.ceis31.0_13

Feasibility of a new-generation nighttime light data for estimating in use steel stock of buildings and civil engineering infrastructures Reviewed International coauthorship

谷川寛樹

Resources Conservation and Recycling Vol. online 2017

Estimating Materials Stocked by Land-Use Type in Historic Urban Buildings Using Spatio-Temporal Analytical Tools Reviewed

Kimberlee A. Marcellus-Zamora, Patricia M. Gallagher, Sabrina Spatari, Hiroki Tanikawa

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY Vol. 20 ( 5 ) page： 1025 - 1037 2016.10

Language：English Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal) Publisher：WILEY

The construction industry is an important contributor to urban economic development and consumes large volumes of building material that are stocked in cities over long periods. Those stocked spaces store valuable materials that may be available for recovery in the future. Thus quantifying the urban building stock is important for managing construction materials across the building life cycle. This article develops a new approach to urban building material stock analysis (MSA) using land-use heuristics. Our objective is to characterize buildings to understand materials stocked in place by: (1) developing, validating, and testing a new method for characterizing building stock by land-use type and (2) quantifying building stock and determining material fractions. We conduct a spatial MSA to quantify materials within a 2.6-square-kilometer section of Philadelphia from 2004 to 2012. Data were collected for buildings classified by land-use type from many sources to create maps of material stock and spatial material intensity. In the spatial MSA, the land-use type that returned the largest footprint (by percentage) and greatest (number) of buildings were civic/institutional (42%; 147) and residential (23%; 275), respectively. The model was validated for total floor space and the absolute overall error (n = 46; 20%) in 2004 and (n = 47; 24%) in 2012. Typically, commercial and residential land-use types returned the lowest overall error and weighted error. We present a promising alternative method for characterizing buildings in urban MSA that leverages multiple tools (geographical information systems [GIS], design codes, and building models) and test the method in historic Philadelphia.

DOI： 10.1111/jiec.12327