記述言語：英語   出版者・発行元：PLOS Digital Health  

As we learned during the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccines are one of the most important tools in infectious disease control. To date, an unprecedentedly large volume of high-quality data on COVID-19 vaccinations have been accumulated. For preparedness in future pandemics beyond COVID-19, these valuable datasets should be analyzed to best shape an effective vaccination strategy. We are collecting longitudinal data from a community-based cohort in Fukushima, Japan, that consists of 2,407 individuals who underwent serum sampling two or three times after a two-dose vaccination with either BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273. Using the individually reconstructed time courses of the vaccine-elicited antibody response based on mathematical modeling, we first identified basic demographic and health information that contributed to the main features of the antibody dynamics, i.e., the peak, the duration, and the area under the curve. We showed that these three features of antibody dynamics were partially explained by underlying medical conditions, adverse reactions to vaccinations, and medications, consistent with the findings of previous studies. We then applied to these factors a recently proposed computational method to optimally fit an “antibody score”, which resulted in an integer-based score that can be used as a basis for identifying individuals with higher or lower antibody titers from basic demographic and health information. The score can be easily calculated by individuals themselves or by medical practitioners. Although the sensitivity of this score is currently not very high, in the future, as more data become available, it has the potential to identify vulnerable populations and encourage them to get booster vaccinations. Our mathematical model can be extended to any kind of vaccination and therefore can form a basis for policy decisions regarding the distribution of booster vaccines to strengthen immunity in future pandemics.

DOI： 10.1371/journal.pdig.0000497

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記述言語：英語   出版者・発行元：PLoS Computational Biology  

Chronic infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) is caused by the persistence of closed circular DNA (cccDNA) in the nucleus of infected hepatocytes. Despite available therapeutic anti-HBV agents, eliminating the cccDNA remains challenging. Thus, quantifying and understanding the dynamics of cccDNA are essential for developing effective treatment strategies and new drugs. However, such study requires repeated liver biopsy to measure the intrahepatic cccDNA, which is basically not accepted because liver biopsy is potentially morbid and not common during hepatitis B treatment. We here aimed to develop a noninvasive method for quantifying cccDNA in the liver using surrogate markers in peripheral blood. We constructed a multiscale mathematical model that explicitly incorporates both intracellular and intercellular HBV infection processes. The model, based on age-structured partial differential equations, integrates experimental data from in vitro and in vivo investigations. By applying this model, we roughly predicted the amount and dynamics of intrahepatic cccDNA within a certain range using specific viral markers in serum samples, including HBV DNA, HBsAg, HBeAg, and HBcrAg. Our study represents a significant step towards advancing the understanding of chronic HBV infection. The noninvasive quantification of cccDNA using our proposed method holds promise for improving clinical analyses and treatment strategies. By comprehensively describing the interactions of all components involved in HBV infection, our multiscale mathematical model provides a valuable framework for further research and the development of targeted interventions.

DOI： 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011238

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記述言語：日本語   出版者・発行元：一般社団法人 人工知能学会  

<p>COVID-19パンデミックでは、ワクチン接種が重要な対策となった。たとえワクチンを接種しても、時間を経て抗体価が減少し有効性が低下することが知られてきており、これによってブレークスルー感染を引き起こす可能性がある。このため、適切な時期に追加接種を行う必要があり、効果的なワクチン接種戦略を立てるためには低い抗体価が持続する免疫脆弱集団を同定することが重要である。そこで本研究では、COVID-19ワクチンを接種して、その後の抗体価を経時的に追跡した福島県のコホートを用いて、個人レベルの抗体価動態を数理モデルによって再構築し、個人差を定量的に明らかにした。さらに、基礎疾患や副反応などの情報から簡単な計算で抗体価の多寡を一定程度予測できる抗体スコアを開発した。</p>

DOI： 10.11517/pjsai.jsai2024.0_2a1gs1003

CiNii Research

記述言語：英語   出版者・発行元：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America  

Infectious virus shedding from individuals infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is used to estimate human-to-human transmission risk. Control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission requires identifying the immune correlates that protect infectious virus shedding. Mucosal immunity prevents infection by SARS-CoV-2, which replicates in the respiratory epithelium and spreads rapidly to other hosts. However, whether mucosal immunity prevents the shedding of the infectious virus in SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals is unknown. We examined the relationship between viral RNA shedding dynamics, duration of infectious virus shedding, and mucosal antibody responses during SARS-CoV-2 infection. Anti-spike secretory IgA antibodies (S-IgA) reduced viral RNA load and infectivity more than anti-spike IgG/IgA antibodies in infected nasopharyngeal samples. Compared with the IgG/IgA response, the anti-spike S-IgA post-infection responses affected the viral RNA shedding dynamics and predicted the duration of infectious virus shedding regardless of the immune history. These findings highlight the importance of anti-spike S-IgA responses in individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 for preventing infectious virus shedding and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Developing medical countermeasures to shorten S-IgA response time may help control human-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection and prevent future respiratory virus pandemics.

DOI： 10.1073/pnas.2314808120

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記述言語：英語   出版者・発行元：Vaccines  

Although studies have demonstrated that infections with various viruses, bacteria, and parasites can modulate the immune system, no study has investigated changes in antibodies against microbial antigens after the COVID-19 mRNA vaccination. IgG antibodies against microbial antigens in the blood of vaccinees were comprehensively analyzed using microbial protein microarrays that carried approximately 5000 microbe-derived proteins. Changes in antibodies against microbial antigens were scrutinized in healthy participants enrolled in the Fukushima Vaccination Community Survey conducted in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, after their second and third COVID-19 mRNA vaccinations. Antibody profiling of six groups stratified by antibody titer and the remaining neutralizing antibodies was also performed to study the dynamics of neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 and the changes in antibodies against microbial antigens. The results showed that changes in antibodies against microbial antigens other than SARS-CoV-2 antigens were extremely limited after COVID-19 vaccination. In addition, antibodies against a staphylococcal complement inhibitor have been identified as microbial antigens that are associated with increased levels of neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. These antibodies may be a predictor of the maintenance of neutralizing antibodies following the administration of a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine.

DOI： 10.3390/vaccines11111694

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記述言語：英語   出版者・発行元：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America  

In the era of living with COVID-19, the risk of localised SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks remains. Here, we develop a multiscale modelling framework for estimating the local outbreak risk for a viral disease (the probability that a major outbreak results from a single case introduced into the population), accounting for within-host viral dynamics. Compared to population-level models previously used to estimate outbreak risks, our approach enables more detailed analysis of how the risk can be mitigated through pre-emptive interventions such as antigen testing. Considering SARS-CoV-2 as a case study, we quantify the within-host dynamics using data from individuals with omicron variant infections. We demonstrate that regular antigen testing reduces, but may not eliminate, the outbreak risk, depending on characteristics of local transmission. In our baseline analysis, daily antigen testing reduces the outbreak risk by 45% compared to a scenario without antigen testing. Additionally, we show that accounting for heterogeneity in within-host dynamics between individuals affects outbreak risk estimates and assessments of the impact of antigen testing. Our results therefore highlight important factors to consider when using multiscale models to design pre-emptive interventions against SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses.

DOI： 10.1073/pnas.2305451120

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記述言語：英語   出版者・発行元：Journal of Infectious Diseases  

Background: Mpox virus (MPXV) is a zoonotic orthopoxvirus and caused an outbreak in 2022. Although tecovirimat and brincidofovir are approved as anti-smallpox drugs, their effects in mpox patients have not been well documented. In this study, by a drug repurposing approach, we identified potential drug candidates for treating mpox and predicted their clinical impacts by mathematical modeling. Methods: We screened 132 approved drugs using an MPXV infection cell system. We quantified antiviral activities of potential drug candidates by measuring intracellular viral DNA and analyzed the modes of action by time-of-addition assay and electron microscopic analysis. We further predicted the efficacy of drugs under clinical concentrations by mathematical simulation and examined combination treatment. Results: Atovaquone, mefloquine, and molnupiravir exhibited anti-MPXV activity, with 50% inhibitory concentrations of 0.51-5.2 μM, which was more potent than cidofovir. Whereas mefloquine was suggested to inhibit viral entry, atovaquone and molnupiravir targeted postentry processes. Atovaquone was suggested to exert its activity through inhibiting dihydroorotate dehydrogenase. Combining atovaquone with tecovirimat enhanced the anti-MPXV effect of tecovirimat. Quantitative mathematical simulations predicted that atovaquone can promote viral clearance in patients by 7 days at clinically relevant drug concentrations. Conclusions: These data suggest that atovaquone would be a potential candidate for treating mpox.

DOI： 10.1093/infdis/jiad058

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記述言語：英語   出版者・発行元：PLoS Computational Biology  

Viruses evolve in infected host populations, and host population dynamics affect viral evolution. RNA viruses with a short duration of infection and a high peak viral load, such as SARS-CoV-2, are maintained in human populations. By contrast, RNA viruses characterized by a long infection duration and a low peak viral load (e.g., borna disease virus) can be maintained in nonhuman populations, and the process of the evolution of persistent viruses has rarely been explored. Here, using a multi-level modeling approach including both individual-level virus infection dynamics and population-scale transmission, we consider virus evolution based on the host environment, specifically, the effect of the contact history of infected hosts. We found that, with a highly dense contact history, viruses with a high virus production rate but low accuracy are likely to be optimal, resulting in a short infectious period with a high peak viral load. In contrast, with a low-density contact history, viral evolution is toward low virus production but high accuracy, resulting in long infection durations with low peak viral load. Our study sheds light on the origin of persistent viruses and why acute viral infections but not persistent virus infection tends to prevail in human society.

DOI： 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011173

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記述言語：英語   出版者・発行元：Journal of Theoretical Biology  

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that has been ongoing since 2019 is still ongoing and how to control it is one of the international issues to be addressed. Antiviral drugs that reduce the viral load in terms of reducing the risk of secondary infection are important. For the general control of emerging infectious diseases, establishing an efficient method to evaluate candidate therapeutic agents will lead to a rapid response. We evaluated clinical trial designs for viral entry inhibitors that have the potential to be effective pre-exposure prophylactic drugs in addition to reducing viral load after infection. We used a previously developed simulation of clinical trials based on a mathematical model of within-host viral infection dynamics to evaluate sample sizes in clinical trials of viral entry inhibitors against COVID-19. We assumed four measures as outcomes, namely change in log10-transformed viral load from symptom onset, PCR positive ratio, log10-transformed viral load, and cumulative viral load, and then sample sizes were calculated for drugs with 99 % and 95 % antiviral efficacy. Consistent with previous results, we found that sample sizes could be dramatically reduced for all outcomes used in an analysis by adopting inclusion/exclusion criteria such that only patients in the early post-infection period would be included in a clinical trial. A comparison of sample sizes across outcomes demonstrated an optimal measurement schedule associated with the nature of the outcome measured for the evaluation of drug efficacy. In particular, the sample sizes calculated from the change in viral load and from viral load tended to be small when measurements were taken at earlier time points after treatment initiation. For the cumulative viral load, the sample size was lower than that from the other outcomes when the stricter inclusion/exclusion criteria to include patients whose time since onset is earlier than 2 days was used. We concluded that the design of efficient clinical trials should consider the inclusion/exclusion criteria and measurement schedules, as well as outcome selection based on sample size, personnel and budget needed to conduct the trial, and the importance of the outcome regarding the medical and societal requirements. This study provides insights into clinical trial design for a variety of situations, especially addressing infectious disease prevalence and feasible trial sizes. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on “Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics”.

DOI： 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111403

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