Faculty Profiles - SHIRAKAWA, Hiroaki

PubMed

将来の人口変化とインフラの退蔵化リスク

喜古響, 蛭田有希, 山下奈穂, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 Vol. 53 ( 1 ) page： 132 - 132 2024.4

気候変動を考慮した洪水ハザードエリアに賦存する建築物ストックの将来推計

細川莉来, 蛭田有希, 山下奈穂, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 Vol. 53 ( 1 ) page： 121 - 121 2024.4

IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DISASTER DEBRIS POTENTIAL USING SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS

HIRAYAMA Nagahisa, SHIRAKAWA Hiroaki, YAMASHITA Naho, TANIKAWA Hiroki

Japanese Journal of JSCE Vol. 80 ( 26 ) page： n/a 2024

Language：Japanese Publisher：Japan Society of Civil Engineers

In this study, the impact of climate change and land use change on disaster debris potential was assessed using inundation depth data from flood inundation analysis by socioeconomic scenario, SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway). As a result, it was pointed out that climate change can increase the amount of disaster debris potential from 1.10 to 1.30 in 2031 to 2050 and from 1.06 to 1.43 in 2081 to 2100, compared to the 1981 to 2000 base climate. The effect of population distribution on the amount of disaster debris potential was analyzed, and it was indicated that the amount of disaster debris potential due to climate change decreases due to population decrease, however, the disaster risk in terms of the amount of disaster debris per capita can increase.

DOI： 10.2208/jscejj.24-26002

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Material Stock and Flow on Construction Sector in Flood Hazard Areas

HOSOKAWA Riko, NAGATA Sota, SHIRAKAWA Hiroaki, TANIKAWA Hiroki

Japanese Journal of JSCE Vol. 80 ( 26 ) page： n/a 2024

Language：Japanese Publisher：Japan Society of Civil Engineers

Understanding the stock and flow on construction sector in flood hazard areas is important for assessing future flood damage and considering land use regulations in flood hazard areas. This study estimated material stock and flow on construction sector at the individual building level and revealed the trends in flood hazard areas. As a result, the building stock in flood hazard areas increased from 2003 to 2020, accounting for approximately 42% of the total national building stock. Especially, the stock of non-durable low-rise wooden buildings in hazard areas with flooding depth of over 3 meters had reached over 195 million tons nationwide by 2020. It was evident that the stock turnover rate is similar both inside and outside flood hazard areas, indicating that buildings have been constructed without considering flood risk.

DOI： 10.2208/jscejj.24-26023

Paving the way to the future: Mapping historical patterns and future trends of road material stock in Japan Reviewed

Zhang, RR; Yamashita, N; Liu, ZW; Guo, J; Hiruta, Y; Shiraka

SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT Vol. 903 2023.12

Obsolescence Risk Assessment of Infrastructure Stocks: A Case Study of Japan's Sewer Pipes Reviewed

YAMASHITA Naho, MATSUSHIRO Tatsuki, HIRUTA Yuki, SHIRAKAWA Hiroaki, TANIKAWA Hiroki

Papers on Environmental Information Science Vol. ceis37 ( 0 ) page： 70 - 77 2023.12

Language：Japanese Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal) Publisher：Center for Environmental Information Science

The aging of urban structures such as buildings and infrastructures has been getting serious in these years. Those material stocks should be appropriately maintained for a long period of time, however, budget constraints and labor shortage due to population decline seem to make the situation more difficult. This study aims to estimate the amount of Japan's sewer pipe stock and compare the obsolescence risk with combinations of soundness of the existing stock and population forecast among prefectures. As results, the amount of sewer pipe stock was estimated to be 115 million t in 2018, and the rates of aged stock requiring urgent maintenance were 29% for concrete pipes and 13% for PVC pipes, respectively. Obsolescence risk was high in Hokkaido, Nara, Yamaguchi, Miyazaki and Kagoshima, indicating that those especially need deliberate countermeasures for a long-term stock management.

DOI： 10.11492/ceispapers.ceis37.0_70

Material Stock and Flow Estimation by Identifying the Congruency of Urban Structures between Generations Reviewed

OTA Yuya, YAMASHITA Naho, HIRUTA Yuki, SHIRAKAWA Hiroaki, TANIKAWA Hiroki

Papers on Environmental Information Science Vol. ceis37 ( 0 ) page： 195 - 201 2023.12

Language：Japanese Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal) Publisher：Center for Environmental Information Science

The accumulation of material stocks within cities raises concerns about the potential future generation of a significant volume of waste. That is caused by the aging of urban structures and the increasing occurrence of natural disasters caused by climate change. Quantifying urban structures stock plays an imperative role in predicting future inflows and outflows, as well as formulating appropriate maintenance and management plans. In this study, Geographic Information System (GIS) was utilized to estimate and reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics of construction material stocks in buildings and infrastructures across Japan. The estimated material stock in buildings was 11,800 million tons, while infrastructure accounted for 7,400 million tons in 2020. Moreover, the newly constructed floor area of buildings in a year was 117 million square meters, with 76 million square meters of demolished floor area over the period from 2016 to 2020.

DOI： 10.11492/ceispapers.ceis37.0_195

The Impacts of Households on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Indonesia Reviewed International coauthorship

Hartono, D; Dachlan, AN; Hastuti, SH; Kartiasih, F; Saputri, NK; Kurniawan, R; Surahman, U; Goembira, F; Shirakawa, H

ENVIRONMENTAL PROCESSES-AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL Vol. 10 ( 4 ) 2023.12

Language：Japanese Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal) Publisher：Environmental Processes

This study aims to evaluate the direct and indirect contributions of household income and regional groups as well as their related sectors to CO2 emissions. The study utilized a semi-closed input‒output model (IOM) along with the hypothetical extraction method (HEM) that can estimate emissions from interdependency between household and production sectors. The results show: (1) The direct and indirect impacts on carbon emissions caused by the consumption of households in urban areas are 1.5 times higher than those in rural areas; (2) there is a positive correlation between household income and its contribution to emissions; (3) there is a notable contribution from high-income urban households to CO2 emissions, up to 1.4 times higher than the poorest household in urban areas and 0.6 times higher than the highest income in rural areas; and (3) the transportation and food sectors drive household-related CO2 emissions the most, while the education, culture, and recreation sectors contribute the least. Our findings indicated that to decrease household energy-related emissions, the government should improve the technology efficiency of transportation and communication as well as the food sectors. There is also a need to have different emission reduction policy designs between households based on their income level, particularly for increasing stringency of emission policies for high-income households.

DOI： 10.1007/s40710-023-00666-3

Does Deep Learning Enhance the Estimation for Spatially Explicit Built Environment Stocks through Nighttime Light Data Set? Evidence from Japanese Metropolitans Reviewed

Uncovering urban transportation infrastructure expansion and sustainability challenge in Bangkok: Insights from a material stock perspective Reviewed International coauthorship

Khumvongsa, K; Guo, J; Theepharaksapan, S; Shirakawa, H; Tanikawa, H

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY Vol. 27 ( 2 ) page： 476 - 490 2023.4

日本における建設資材ストック・フローの時空間分析 Reviewed

太田裕也, 山下奈穂, 蛭田有希, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 Vol. 52 ( 1 ) page： 120 - 120 2023.3

滞留年数の延長による資源循環及び気候変動緩和への影響評価 Reviewed

藤川奈々, 山下奈穂, 蛭田有希, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 Vol. 52 ( 1 ) page： 119 - 119 2023.3

Liu, ZW; Saito, R; Guo, J; Hirai, C; Haga, C; Matsui, T; Shirakawa, H; Tanikawa, H

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Vol. 57 ( 9 ) page： 3971 - 3979 2023.3

What matters most to the material intensity coefficient of buildings? Random forest-based evidence from China

Zhang, RR; Guo, J; Yang, D; Shirakawa, H; Shi, F; Tanikawa, H

JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY Vol. 26 ( 5 ) page： 1809 - 1823 2022.10

An estimate of the value of the beachfront with respect to the hotel room rates in Thailand Open Access

Chatuphorn Somphong, Keiko Udo, Sompratana Ritphring, Hiroaki Shirakawa

OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT Vol. 226 2022.7

Language：English Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal) Publisher：ELSEVIER SCI LTD

An economic assessment for a non-market resource like sandy beaches is always a challenge for Thailand's coastal policy planners due to the lack of data availability, especially on the national scale. While beach tourism in Thailand has been an essential part of the Thai economy, the sandy beaches are probably exposed to the future sea-level rise. Therefore, the need for tourism benefits of the beaches should be conducted. The research attempted to measure the effect of sandy beach characteristics and hotel location on hotel room rates. A sample of 3319 hotel rooms across Thailand's coastal sub-districts, covering the entire sandy beaches in Thailand, was collected through a hotel-booking online database during the country's peak season. The considered variables include hotel room attributes, sandy beach characteristics, hotel locations, and coastal infrastructures. Through a hedonic price model based on geographically weighted regression analysis, the relationship between the dependent variables (hotel room rate) and the independent variables (selected beach variable) was estimated to evaluate the marginal effect and its spatial variations. The tourism benefit was calculated assuming the marginal effect of the hotel's beachfront locations on hotel price. The study suggested that the location in front of the beach raised the average hotel room rates by 13-41%. The results emphasized the significant spatial variability of the effect of beachfront location on the hotel price. In addition, the effect of beach protection structures (i.e., seawall, breakwaters, groins) on the hotel price was also investigated and implied a slight drop by 8-15% of the average price. The other sandy beach variables (such as beach length, width, and slope) effects on hotel price were also investigated. The finding of this study aims to help policymakers select and design proper adaptations to coastal erosion on tourist beaches in Thailand.

DOI： 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2022.106272

A Scenario Simulation and the Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Nigeria

IGHILE Eseosa Halima, SHIRAKAWA Hiroaki

Journal of Environmental Information Science Vol. 2021 ( 2 ) page： 19 - 30 2022.5

Language：English Publisher：Center for Environmental Information Science

Nigeria’s land use pattern is undergoing various modifications stemming from the changing demographic and economic characteristics, resulting in various environmental problems. As the land use system continues to experience rapid modifications, we need to investigate how the historical and future land use patterns may impact Nigeria’s sustainable use of its land resources. In this paper, we explored the characteristics of land use change and simulated future land use demand by combining system dynamics and the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) models. We simulated future land use demand from 2020 to 2040 under three developmental (business-as-usual (BAU), market-oriented and conservation) scenarios. The results of the scenarios show that under the BAU scenario, cultivated areas increased rapidly from 42.5% in 2020 (baseline) to 57.8% in 2040. However, in the market-oriented and conservation scenarios, cultivated land is anticipated to be 52.3% and 44.3% respectively in 2040, highlighting how varying socio-economic and land use policies affect land use change. Based on the predicted scenarios in 2040, we gained insight into how socio-economic changes affect land use patterns, which would aid in the development, optimisation, and prioritising of areas where the utmost focus is needed to reduce environmental degradation and ensure sustainable growth and development.

DOI： 10.11492/ceispapersen.2021.2_19

Application of GIS and Machine Learning to Predict Flood Areas in Nigeria Open Access

Ighile, EH; Shirakawa, H; Tanikawa, H

SUSTAINABILITY Vol. 14 ( 9 ) 2022.5

Language：Japanese Publisher：Sustainability (Switzerland)

Floods are one of the most devastating forces in nature. Several approaches for identifying flood-prone locations have been developed to reduce the overall harmful impacts on humans and the environment. However, due to the increased frequency of flooding and related disasters, coupled with the continuous changes in natural and social-economic conditions, it has become vital to predict areas with the highest probability of flooding to ensure effective measures to mitigate impending disasters. This study predicted the flood susceptible areas in Nigeria based on historical flood records from 1985~2020 and various conditioning factors. To evaluate the link between flood incidence and the fifteen (15) explanatory variables, which include climatic, topographic, land use and proximity information, the artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression (LR) models were trained and tested to develop a flood susceptibility map. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and area under the curve (AUC) were used to evaluate both model accuracies. The results show that both techniques can model and predict flood-prone areas. However, the ANN model produced a higher performance and prediction rate than the LR model, 76.4% and 62.5%, respectively. In addition, both models highlighted that those areas with the highest susceptibility to flood are the low-lying regions in the southern extremities and around water areas. From the study, we can establish that machine learning techniques can effectively map and predict flood-prone areas and serve as a tool for developing flood mitigation policies and plans.

DOI： 10.3390/su14095039

Open Access

Development of a web application for climate change adaptation in Thailand Open Access

Shirakawa H., Suanpaga W.

IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science Vol. 1016 ( 1 ) 2022.4

Language：Japanese Publisher：IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science

There is no doubt about the warming of the climate system, and it is widely accepted by a society that adaptation measures are important to reduce the negative impact of climate change on society. However, there are socio-economic obstacles to the promotion of climate change countermeasures. In other words, to implement climate change adaptation measures, not only the economic efficiency of the measures, but also fairness, consistency with existing policies, and cultural acceptability must be considered. Moreover, future forecasts contain uncertainty. Therefore, it is very difficult to formulate adaptation measures and consider policy priorities. The purpose of the study is to create a web application that shows the risk of natural disasters and the socioeconomic status of the region, targeting Thailand, which is one of the countries affected by climate change to solve the above problems. We basically developed web applications using freeware. As the result, the user can grasp the risk situation of natural disasters in Thailand as a whole, and grasp the industrial structure, agricultural production structure, and poverty situation in each region. This application is expected to promote understanding of the impacts of climate change among stakeholders and to support discussions on policy priorities.

DOI： 10.1088/1755-1315/1016/1/012023

Open Access

Estimation of Material Stocks Based on Building Structure Determination Using Image Recognition

GIS を用いた同一性判定に基づく建築物のLCA 環境負荷の評価

太田裕也, 吉田英立, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 Vol. 51 ( 1 ) page： 117 - 117 2022.3

名古屋市中心部における建設資材ストックと構造種割合の変遷

玉崎美結, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 Vol. 51 ( 1 ) page： 83 - 83 2022.3

衛星画像を用いた畳み込みニューラルネットワークによる建物延床面積推計に関する研究

齋藤隆成, LIU Zhiwei, 平井千津子, 芳賀智宏, 松井孝典, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 Vol. 51 ( 1 ) page： 84 - 84 2022.3

都市構造物ストック推計手法の再検討

松代竜毅, 山下奈穂, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境情報科学 Vol. 51 ( 1 ) page： 82 - 82 2022.3

NAGAO Masahiro, TAKEUCHI Junki, TAMASAKI Miyu, MORITA Masato, KITA Eisuke, SHIRAKAWA Hiroaki, TANIKAWA Hiroki

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research) Vol. 78 ( 6 ) page： II_19 - II_25 2022

Language：Japanese Publisher：Japan Society of Civil Engineers

Estimation of material stock of buildings in urban areas is important for recycling and proper disposal of resources. For the purpose of more accurate stock estimation, glasses and walls were extracted from images of building walls using a machine learning model of image recognition, and then calculated the percentage of glass in the walls based on the number of pixels in each. The classification of building structures based on the glass percentage showed that a threshold value of 67% is suitable for classifying steel-framed buildings with curtain walls. Classification result obtained from 262 buildings around Nagoya Station was used for stock estimation, and the result was compared with those calculated by the method proposed by previous study. The estimated amount of concrete decreased by 18% and the estimated amount of steel increased by 325%.

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.78.6_ii_19

Compilation of Physical Input Output Table of Non-metallic Mineral Resources in Japan and Application to Material Flow Indicators

YAMASHITA Naho, HASHIMOTO Seiji, SHIRAKAWA Hiroaki, TANIKAWA Hiroki

Journal of Human and Environmental Symbiosis Vol. 38 ( 2 ) page： 176 - 187 2021.11

Language：Japanese Publisher：Japan Association for Human and Environmental Symbiosis

The 4th Fundamental Plan for Establishing a Sound Material-Cycle Society aims to achieve exhaustive resource use though the development of new methods and indicators considering all stages of material lifecycle. In this study, material flow and stock analysis of non-metallic mineral resources and its compilation to physical input output table are conducted for the period 1990 to 2015. Also, the results are applied to 6 material flow indicators to discuss the efficiency in each stage of lifecycle. According to the results, the amount of direct material input has decreased since 1990, while the amount of domestic processed output has relatively increased in recent years. It was also found the recovery rate of used products has been over 90% since 2003. This indicates the utilization of used materials has been consistently promoted although the amount of outflow from used products has increased. The difference between the amount of outflow from statistics and estimates implies that there is a certain amount of so-called missing stock such as obsolete stock and dissipated stock. These stocks could be great concern in terms of its impact on material use time and future waste generation.

DOI： 10.32313/jahes.38.2_176

EMPIRICAL RESEARCH OF RESOURCE PRODUCTIVITY DECOMPOSITION CONSIDERING MATERIAL STOCK -CASE STUDY OF JAPAN’S RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS-

物質ストックを考慮した資源生産性の要因分解の実証研究―住宅におけるケーススタディ― Invited Reviewed

山下奈穂, 郭静, 白川博章, 谷川寛樹

環境システム研究論文集 2021.10

The Comparative Study of Adaptation Measure to Sea Level Rise in Thailand

Ritphring Sompratana, Nidhinarangkoon Pattrakorn, Udo Keiko, Shirakawa Hiroaki

JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING Vol. 9 ( 6 ) 2021.6

A review of climate-change impact and adaptation studies for the water sector in Thailand

Kiguchi Masashi, Takata Kumiko, Hanasaki Naota, Archevarahuprok Boonlert, Champathong Adisorn, Ikoma Eiji, Jaikaeo Chaiporn, Kaewrueng Sudsaisin, Kanae Shinjiro, Kazama So, Kuraji Koichiro, Matsumoto Kyoko, Nakamura Shinichiro, Nguyen-Le Dzung, Noda Keigo, Piamsa-Nga Napaporn, Raksapatcharawong Mongkol, Rangsiwanichpong Prem, Ritphring Sompratana, Shirakawa Hiroaki, Somphong Chatuphorn, Srisutham Mallika, Suanburi Desell, Suanpaga Weerakaset, Tebakari Taichi, Trisurat Yongyut, Udo Keiko, Wongsa Sanit, Yamada Tomohito, Yoshida Koshi, Kiatiwat Thanya, Oki Taikan

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS Vol. 16 ( 2 ) 2021.2

YAMASHITA Naho, GUO Jing, SHIRAKAWA Hiroaki, TANIKAWA Hiroki

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research) Vol. 77 ( 6 ) page： II_23 - II_31 2021

Language：Japanese Publisher：Japan Society of Civil Engineers

Resource productivity is a material flow index that is set as a major goal of the Fundamental Plan for Establishing a Sound Material-Cycle Society, but it could not well evaluate the indirect impact of the material stock that supports the material flow. A few of existing studies have conducted the resource productivity decomposition with material stock factors though, it is difficult to apply the same fashion to all types of material stock whose value greatly varies depending on its usage. In this study, we mainly considered the factors of Japan’s housing material stock, to clarify the impact of changes in housing stock on the resource productivity. The results show that the resource productivity is negatively impacted by the decrease of the service provided with a unit of housing stock and the increase of vacant houses from 2008 to 2017, while it can be improved through the prolonging the housing lifetime.

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.77.6_ii_23

衛星夜間光情報に基づく深層学習による建築物の延べ床面積推計に関する研究 Reviewed

齋藤隆成,平井千津子,芳賀智宏,松井孝典,白川博章,谷川寛樹

環境システム研究論文集 Vol. 76 ( 6 ) page： 1 - 7 2020.10

Beach Nourishment as an Adaptation to Future Sandy Beach Loss Owing to Sea-Level Rise in Thailand

Somphong Chatuphorn, Udo Keiko, Ritphring Sompratana, Shirakawa Hiroaki

JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING Vol. 8 ( 9 ) 2020.9

A STUDY ON THE EFFECTS OF LAND USE CHANGE ON FLOODING RISKS IN NIGERIA

Ighile Eseosa Halima, Shirakawa Hiroaki

GEOGRAPHIA TECHNICA Vol. 15 ( 1 ) page： 91-101 2020.3

QUANTIFICATION OF IN-USE MATERIAL STOCK RATE - CASE STUDY OF JAPAN’S RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS -

TANIKAWA Hiroki, YAMAMOTO Hiromu, YAMASHITA Naho, SHIRAKAWA Hiroaki

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research) Vol. 76 ( 6 ) page： II_9 - II_16 2020

Language：Japanese Publisher：Japan Society of Civil Engineers

For the establishment of Recycling-based Society, Stock-type Society becomes increasingly important. Material stock plays an important role in the society and serves someone well in one way, whereas it has inevitable impact on material flow. For the reason that material stock is inextricably linked with material flow, the excess material stock can induce unnecessary resource input and increase waste generation from obsolete stock. To bring down high-quality material stock for the future generation, proper management of materials stored or hibernating in the society is required. In order to grasp the status of stock, material stock should be estimated and evaluated with in-use rate. In this study, by the method of lifespan modeling approach, material stock in Japan’s residential buildings and the amount of that obsolete stock/in-use stock were estimated. As a result of the estimation, there were 5.2 billion tons of residential building in 2018. In the amount of material stock in empty houses out of residential buildings, the amount of obsolete stock was estimated at 0.3 billion ton. As the number of residential building keeps increasing, the amount of obsolete stock is expected to increase in future.

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.76.6_ii_9

Adaptation assessment to future beach loss due to sea level rise in Thailand

Land-Use/Land-Cover Change from Socio-Economic Drivers and Their Impact on Biodiversity in Nan Province, Thailand

Trisurat Yongyut, Shirakawa Hiroaki, Johnston John M.

SUSTAINABILITY Vol. 11 ( 3 ) 2019.2

Chatuphorn Somphong, Keiko Udo, Sompratana Ritphring, Hiroaki Shirakawa, So Kazama

Proceedings of the Coastal Engineering Conference Vol. 36 ( 2018 ) 2018

Effect of Land Use Change Driven by Economic Growth on Sedimentation in River Reach in Southeast Asia - A Case Study in Upper Citarum River Basin -

Noda Keigo, Yoshida Koshi, Shirakawa Hiroaki, Surahman Usep, Oki Kazuo

JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY Vol. 73 ( 1 ) page： 22-30 2017.1

Quantitative Evaluation of Spatial Distribution of Nitrogen Loading in the Citarum River Basin, Indonesia

Yoshida Koshi, Tanaka Kenji, Noda Keigo, Homma Koki, Maki Masayasu, Hongo Chiharu, Shirakawa Hiroaki, Oki Kazuo

JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY Vol. 73 ( 1 ) page： 31-44 2017.1

Quantitative evaluation of spatial distribution of nitrogen loading in the Citarum river Basin, Indonesia Reviewed

Koshi Yoshida,Kenji Tanaka, Keigo Noda, Koki Homma, Masayasu Maki, Chiharu Hongo, Hiroaki Shirakawa and Kazuo Oki

Journal of agricultural meteology Vol. 73 ( 1 ) page： 31-44 2017

POSSIBILITY OF WEATHER-INDEX INSURANCE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN NORTHEAST THAILAND

YOSHIDA Koshi, HOMMA Koki, MAKI Masayasu, NODA Keigo, SHIRAKAWA Hiroaki, OKI Kazuo, SRITUMBOON Supranee, SRISUTHAM Mallika

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research) Vol. 73 ( 5 ) page： I_377 - I_383 2017

Language：Japanese Publisher：Japan Society of Civil Engineers

In northeast Thailand, the ratio of irrigated agricultural land was only 7.6% and others were rain-fed so that climate change makes agricultural production more unstable and also makes crucial damage to the societies and economics in rural area. To mitigate these issues, it is desirable to develop and disseminate enhanced adaptation systems. In this study, we focused on weather-index insurance for climate change adaptation measure. Firstly, we evaluated how affect the rainfall amount and patterns on rice production through regression analysis by using the meteorological and agricultural statistic data from 1985 until 2004. The production of wet season rice had positive relationship(R>0.2, Slope>0.2) with 3 month accumulated rainfall (Jun-Aug) in 11 province. As a result, employed rainfall index was suitable for accurate estimation of rice production in wet season. Secondly, household survey was conducted to grasp farmer's conditions of water use, cultivation, income balance. And then, economic loss by weather induced agricultural damage was estimated and impact on farmer's household income was evaluated by using the agricultural statistic and rice price data from 1981 until 2013. Recently, agricultural economic loss of around 600 million Baht was often occurred in northeast Thailand. However farmers household income was mostly rely on non-agricultural sector so that agricultural economic loss was less than 10% of their annual income. Current weather index was designed by 5-10 years return periods in many province and that also might be the one reason of obstacles of insurance sales.

DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.73.i_377