Organization
Graduate School of Economics Department of Socio-Economic System Analysis on the System of Policy Making Professor
Undergraduate School
School of Economics Department of Economics
Title
Professor
TSURUGA Takayuki
Research Interests 3
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Applied Time Series Econometrics
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Macroeconomics
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Monetary Economics
Research Areas 3
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Humanities & Social Sciences / Money and finance
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Humanities & Social Sciences / Economic policy
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Humanities & Social Sciences / Theoretical economics
Research History 12
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Nagoya University Graduate School of Economics Professor
2026.4
Country：Japan
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Osaka University The Institute of Social and Economic Research Director
2021.4 - 2025.3
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Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Professor
2017.10 - 2026.3
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Kyoto University Graduate School of Economics Associate Professor
2017.4 - 2017.9
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Cabinet Office,Government of Japan Economic and Social Research Institute Research Fellow
2016.4 - 2017.3
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Kyoto University Graduate School of Economics Associate Professor
2010.4 - 2016.3
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Kansai University Faculty of Economics Associate Professor
2008.4 - 2010.3
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Bank of Japan Economist
2005.8 - 2008.3
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Nagoya University
2025.4 - 2025.9
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Chubu Region Institute for Social and Economic Research
2022.5
Country：Japan
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Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan
2017.10 - 2023.3
Country：Japan
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Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan
2017.4 - 2017.9
Country：Japan
Education 4
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The Ohio State University Ph.D. in Economics
- 2005.6
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The Ohio State University M.A. in Economics
- 2002.8
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Waseda University Division of Economics
- 1998.3
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Waseda University Faculty of Political Economics
- 1996.3
Professional Memberships 5
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The Japan Society of International Economics
2022.8
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Japan Society of Monetary Economics
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Japanese Economic Association
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Econometric Society
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American Economic Association
Committee Memberships 8
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Japan Society of Monetary Economics Executive Directors
2024.4
Committee type：Academic society
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Japanese Economic Association 若手研究支援・男女共同参画委員会
2023.10 - 2024.10
Committee type：Academic society
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大阪大学 総長選考・監察会議委員
2023.5 - 2025.3
Committee type：Other
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Japanese Economic Association Program committee
2020
Committee type：Academic society
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Japan Society of Monetary Economics Program committee
2018
Committee type：Academic society
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Japan Society of Monetary Economics Program committee
2015
Committee type：Academic society
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Japan Society of Monetary Economics Program committee
2014
Committee type：Academic society
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Japanese Economic Association Program committee
2013
Committee type：Academic society
Awards 1
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Iijima Prize
1998.3 Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University
Takayuki Tsuruga
Papers 31
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Inattention to market shrinkage: The case of the photo film market
Masataka Eguchi, Takayuki Tsuruga, Mai Yamada
ISER Discussion Paper Vol. 1307 2026.3
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Overreaction in inflation expectations: Do behavioral attributes of individuals matter?
Takayuki Tsuruga, l Zichong Yue
ISER Discussion Paper Vol. 1309 2026.3
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On the empirical (ir)relevance of the zero lower bound constraint: The case of fiscal multiplier in Japan Open Access
Hirokuni Iiboshi, Yasuharu Iwata, Takayuki Tsuruga
ISER Discussion Paper Vol. 1306 2026.3
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A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate Reviewed Open Access
Mario J Crucini, Mototsugu Shintani, Takayuki Tsuruga
Forthcoming Journal of the European Economic Association page： 1 - 53 2025.5
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Should the Fiscal Authority Avoid Implementation Lag? Reviewed Open Access
Masataka Eguchi, Hidekazu Niwa, Takayuki Tsuruga
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Vol. 86 ( 4 ) page： 856 - 870 2024.8
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Accounting for the Slowdown in Output Growth after the Great Recession: A Wealth Preference Approach
Kazuma Inagaki, Yoshiyasu Ono, Takayuki Tsuruga
ISER Discussion Paper Vol. 1174R 2023.3
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Pecuniary externalities, bank overleverage, and macroeconomic fragility Reviewed International journal Open Access
Ryo Kato, Takayuki Tsuruga
International Journal of Economic Theory Vol. 18 ( 4 ) page： 554 - 577 2022.12
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Sticky Wages in a World of Ideas Reviewed
Kevin X.D. Huang, Munechika Katayama, Mototsugu Shintani, Takayuki Tsuruga
Economic Inquiry Vol. 60 ( 4 ) page： 1757 - 1781 2022.10
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Sectoral inflation persistence, market concentration, and imperfect common knowledge Reviewed International journal Open Access
Ryo Kato, Tatsushi Okuda, Takayuki Tsuruga
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization Vol. 192 page： 500 - 517 2021.12
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Decomposing local fiscal multipliers: Evidence from Japan Reviewed Open Access
Taisuke Kameda, Ryoichi Namba, Takayuki Tsuruga
Japan and the World Economy page： 101053 - 101053 2021.1
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Money-financed Fiscal Stimulus: The Effects of Implementation Lag Reviewed International journal Open Access
Tsuruga Takayuki, Shota Wake
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control Vol. 104 page： 132 - 151 2019.7
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Current Account Dynamics under Information Rigidity and Imperfect Capital Mobility Reviewed
Akihisa Shibata, Mototsugu Shintani, Takayuki Tsuruga
Journal of International Money and Finance Vol. 92 page： 153 - 176 2019.4
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Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Inflation: A Cross-country Analysis Reviewed Open Access
Atsushi Sekine, Takayuki Tsuruga
Oxford Economic Papers Vol. 70 ( 4 ) page： 1108 - 1135 2018.10
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Prudential capital controls or bailouts? The impact of different collateral constraint assumptions Reviewed
Mitsuru Katagiri, Ryo Kato, Takayuki Tsuruga
ECONOMIC THEORY Vol. 63 ( 4 ) page： 943 - 960 2017.4
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The safer, the riskier: A model of financial instability and bank leverage Reviewed
Ryo Kato, Takayuki Tsuruga
ECONOMIC MODELLING Vol. 52 page： 71 - 77 2016.1
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Noisy information, distance and law of one price dynamics across US cities Reviewed
Mario J. Crucini, Mototsugu Shintani, Takayuki Tsuruga
JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS Vol. 74 page： 52 - 66 2015.9
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Real exchange rate dynamics in sticky wage models Reviewed
Mario J. Crucini, Mototsugu Shintani, Takayuki Tsuruga
ECONOMICS LETTERS Vol. 123 ( 2 ) page： 160 - 163 2014.5
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Do sticky prices increase real exchange rate volatility at the sector level? Reviewed
Mario J. Crucini, Mototsugu Shintani, Takayuki Tsuruga
EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW Vol. 62 page： 58 - 72 2013.8
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加藤涼, 敦賀 貴之
金融研究 Vol. 31 ( 48 ) page： 95 - 134 2012.10
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INTEGRATING STICKY PRICES AND STICKY INFORMATION Reviewed
Bill Dupor, Tomiyuki Kitamura, Takayuki Tsuruga
REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS Vol. 92 ( 3 ) page： 657 - 669 2010.8
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Accounting for persistence and volatility of good-level real exchange rates: The role of sticky information Reviewed Open Access
Mario J. Crucini, Mototsugu Shintani, Takayuki Tsuruga
JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS Vol. 81 ( 1 ) page： 48 - 60 2010.5
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The Law of One Price without the Border: The Role of Distance versus Sticky Prices Reviewed Open Access
Mario J. Crucini, Mototsugu Shintani, Takayuki Tsuruga
ECONOMIC JOURNAL Vol. 120 ( 544 ) page： 462 - 480 2010.5
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ニューケインジアン・フィリップス曲線に関する実証研究の動向について
敦賀 貴之, 武藤一郎
金融研究 Vol. 27 ( 2 ) page： 65 - 100 2008.4
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The hump-shaped behavior of inflation and a dynamic externality Reviewed
Takayuki Tsuruga
EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW Vol. 51 ( 5 ) page： 1107 - 1125 2007.7
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Sticky information: The impact of different information updating assumptions Reviewed
B Dupor, T Tsuruga
JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING Vol. 37 ( 6 ) page： 1143 - 1152 2005.12
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設備投資関数の理論を用いた投機的バブルの検証
敦賀 貴之
早稲田経済学研究 ( 48 ) page： 147 - 165 1999
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Sticky wage models and knowledge capital
Kevin X, D. Huang, Munechika Katayama, Mototsugu Shintani, Takayuki Tsuruga
ISER Discussion Paper page： 1 - 23 2019.1
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粘着価格の経済モデルとマクロ経済学への含意
Takayuki Tsuruga
Economic & Social Research Vol. 14 page： 11 - 12 2016.9
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Managing Financial Crises: Lean or Clean?
Mitsuru Katagiri, Ryo Kato, Takayuki Tsuruga
IMES Discussion Paper Series 2012 E-16 2012.11
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How Well Do the Sticky Price Models Explain the Disaggregated Price Responses to Aggregate Technology and Monetary Policy Shocks?
Jouchi Nakajima, Nao Sudo, Takayuki Tsuruga
IMES Discussion Paper Series E-10-007 2010.9
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Flattened Phillips Curve in Japan: The Role of Speed Limit Policies
Ryo Kato, Takayuki Tsuruga
Economic Society of Kansai University Working Paper Series F-35 2009.1
MISC 2
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Sectoral Inflation Persistence, Market Concentration and Imperfect Common Knowledge
Ryo Kato, Tatsushi Okuda, Takayuki Tsuruga
ISER Discussion Paper No. 1082 page： 1 - 35 2020.3
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Sticky Wages in a World of Ideas International coauthorship
Kevin X, D. Huang, Munechika Katayama, Mototsugu Shintani, Takayuki Tsuruga
Vol. 1159 2022.2
Presentations 67
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A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate, Invited
Takayuki Tsuruga
2024.12.20
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Accounting for the slowdown in output growth after the Great Recession: A wealth preference approach
Takayuki Tsuruga
EEA-ESEM 2024 2024.8.28
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Accounting for the slowdown in output growth after the Great Recession: A wealth preference approach
Takayuki Tsuruga
2024 Asia Meeting of the Econometric Society, East and Southeast Asia 2024.8.3
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A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate
Takayuki Tsuruga
2024.3.8
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A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate Invited
Takayuki Tsuruga
Yonsei University Economics Seminar 2024.2.26
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Accounting for the slowdown in output growth after the Great Recession: A wealth preference approach Invited
Takayuki Tsuruga
Macroeconomic Workshop 2023.10.12
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Accounting for the slowdown in output growth after the Great Recession: A wealth preference approach
Takayuki Tsuruga
2023.4.14
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Accounting for the slowdown in output growth after the Great Recession: A wealth preference approach
Takayuki Tsuruga
Japan Society of Monetary Economics 2022.11.26
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Empirical Analysis of International Macroeconomics Invited
Takayuki Tsuruga
The Japan Society of International Economics 2022.7.23
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A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate
Takayuki Tsuruga
North American Meeting of the Econometric Society 2021.1.5
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“Behavioral Law of One Price Deviations? A Simple Test Based on Analysis of Variance International coauthorship
Tsuruga Takayuki
Summer Workshop on Economic Theory 2019.8.8
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Accounting for Persistence and Volatility of Good-level Real Exchange Rates: The Role of Sticky Information
Takayuki Tsuruga
The first Winter Institute of Macroeconomics 2009.2
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Accounting for Persistence and Volatility of Good-level Real Exchange Rates: The Role of Sticky Information
Mario J. Crucini, Mototsugu Shintani, Takayuki Tsuruga
Far Eastern and South Asian Meeting of Econometric Society 2008.7
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Accounting for Persistence and Volatility of Good-level Real Exchange Rates: The Role of Sticky Information
Takayuki Tsuruga
Japanese Economic Association Meeting 2008.9
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Accounting for Persistence and Volatility of Good-level Real Exchange Rates: The Role of Sticky Information
Mario J. Crucini, Mototsugu Shintani, Takayuki Tsuruga
第9回マクロ経済学コンファレンス 2007.12
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Accounting for Persistence and Volatility of Good-level Real Exchange Rates: The Role of Sticky Information
Takayuki Tsuruga
Midwest Macro Meetings 2008 2008.5
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A Comment on Sticky Prices and Sectoral Real Exchange Rate: The Impact of Different Pricing Assumptions
Mario Crucini, Mototsugu Shintani, Takayuki Tsuruga
24th Summer Meeting of Economic Society of Kansai University 2008.7
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A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate, Invited
Takayuki Tsuruga
名古屋大学経済学セミナー 2025.4.30
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A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate International coauthorship
Takayuki Tsuruga
Summer Workshop on Economic Theory 2020.8.23
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A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate
Takayuki Tsuruga
Renmin University of China Economics Seminar 2020.10.19
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A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate
Takayuki Tsuruga
Keio University Maroeconomics Seminar 2020.1.7
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A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate
敦賀貴之
Kyoto Univesity Economics Seminar 2020.2.17
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A Behavioral Explanation for the Puzzling Persistence of the Aggregate Real Exchange Rate
Takayuki Tsuruga
Yokohama City University Economics Seminar 2021.1.7
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Bank Overleverage and Macroeconomic Fragility
Takayuki Tsuruga
The 66th European Meeting of the Econometric Society 2012.8
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The Safer, the riskier: A model of financial instability and bank leverage
Takayuki Tsuruga
Third International Symposium in Computational Economics and Finance 2014.4
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The Safer, the riskier: A model of financial instability and bank leverage
Takayuki Tsuruga
Kyoto University and National Taiwan University Symposium 2014.9
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The Safer, the riskier: A model of financial instability and bank leverage
Takayuki Tsuruga
Annual meeting of the Japan Society of Monetary Economics 2011.9
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The Safer, the riskier: A model of financial instability and bank leverage
Takayuki Tsuruga
Japanese Economic Association Meeting 2011.10
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The Safer, the riskier: A model of financial instability and bank leverage
Ryo Kato, Takayuki Tsuruga
第５回 若手経済学者のためのマクロ経済学コンファレンス 2011.3
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The Law of One Price without the Border: the Roles of Distance versus Sticky Prices
Mario J. Crucini, Mototsugu Shintani, Takayuki Tsuruga
日本金融学会関西部会 2008.11
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The Law of One Price without the Border: the Roles of Distance versus Sticky Prices
Mario J. Crucini, Mototsugu Shintani, Takayuki Tsuruga
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2009.4
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The Hump-shaped Behavior of Inflation and a Dynamic Externality
Takayuki Tsuruga
Far Eastern Meeting of Econometric Society 2004.7
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The Hump-shaped Behavior of Inflation and a Dynamic Externality
Takayuki Tsuruga
2005年 日本経済学会 春季大会 2005.6
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Souces of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Distorted Beliefs
Takayuki Tsuruga
2009年度 日本経済学会 春季大会 2009.6
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Prudential Capital Controls or Bailouts? The Impact of Different Collateral Constraint Assumptions
Takayuki Tsuruga
Annual meeting of the Japan Society of Monetary Economics 2013.9
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Prudential Capital Controls or Bailouts? The Impact of Different Collateral Constraint Assumptions
Takayuki Tsuruga
The 18th Australasian Macroeconomic Workshop 2014.4
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Prudential Capital Controls or Bailouts? The Impact of Different Collateral Constraint Assumptions
Mitsuru Katagiri, Ryo Kato, Takayuki Tsuruga
The 4th Emerging Markets Finance Conference 2014.5.8
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Prudential Capital Controls or Bailouts? The Impact of Different Collateral Constraint Assumptions
Takayuki Tsuruga
2013 Annual Meeting of the Society for Economic Dynamics 2013.6
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Prudential Capital Controls or Bailouts? The Impact of Different Collateral Constraint Assumptions
Takayuki Tsuruga
2013 Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society 2013.8
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Prudential Capital Controls or Bailouts? The Impact of Different Collateral Constraint Assumptions
Takayuki Tsuruga
The 22nd SJE International Symposium, Recent Issues in Macroeconomics: Post Financial Crisis 2014.7
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Noisy Information, Distance, and Law of One Price Dynamics across US cities
Takayuki Tsuruga
Summer Workshop on Economic Theory 2011.8
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Noisy Information, Distance, and Law of One Price Dynamics across US cities
Takayuki Tsuruga
Midwest Macro Meetings 2012 2012.5
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Money-financed Fiscal Stimulus: The Effects of an Anticipated Shock
Takayuki Tsuruga
2016 Asian Meeting of Econometric Society 2016.8
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Money-financed Fiscal Stimulus: The Effects of an Anticipated Shock
Takayuki Tsuruga
The 11th Macroeconomic Conference for Young Economists 2017.1
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Modeling micro price dynamics in macroeconomics Invited
Takayuki Tsuruga
Renmin University of China, School of Finance, Seminar 2020.11.20
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Integrating sticky prices and sticky information
Takayuki Tsuruga
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2007.4
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Integrating Sticky Prices and Sticky Information
Bill Dupor, Tomiyuki Kitamura, Takayuki Tsuruga
North American Summer Meeting of Econometric Society 2007.6
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Integrating Sticky Prices and Sticky Information
Bill Dupor, Tomiyuki Kitamura, Takayuki Tsuruga
2008年度 日本経済学会 春季大会 2008.5
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How Well Do Sticky Price Models Explain the Disaggregated Price Responses to Aggregate Technology and Monetary Policy Shocks?
Takayuki Tsuruga
Japanese Economic Association Meeting 2011.5
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How Well Do Sticky Price Models Explain the Disaggregated Price Responses to Aggregate Technology and Monetary Policy Shocks?
Takayuki Tsuruga
Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society 2011.8
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How Well Do Sticky Price Models Explain the Disaggregated Price Responses to Aggregate Technology and Monetary Policy Shocks?
Takayuki Tsuruga
RIEB Workshop on Mathematical Economics 2010.11
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Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Inflation: A Cross Country Analysis
Takayuki Tsuruga
Midwest Macro Meetings 2014 2014.11
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Do Sticky Prices Increase Real Exchange Rate Volatility at the Sector Level?
Mario J Crucini, Mototsugu Shintani, Takayuki Tsuruga
Summer Workshop on Economic Theory 2009.8
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Do Sticky Prices Increase Real Exchange Rate Volatility at the Sector Level?
Mario J. Crucini, Mototsugu Shintani, Takayuki Tsuruga
World Congress in Econometric Society 2010.8
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Do Sticky Prices Increase Real Exchange Rate Volatility at the Sector Level?
Mario J. Crucini, Mototsugu Shintani, Takayuki Tsuruga
Nagoya Conference on Public Economic and Macroeconomics 2010.12
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Decomposing Local Fiscal Multipliers: Evidence from Japan
Taisuke Kameda, Ryoichi Namba, Takayuki Tsuruga
The 19th Macroeconomics Conference 2017.11
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Decomposing Local Fiscal Multipliers: Evidence from Japan International conference
Taisuke Kameda, Ryoichi Namba, Takayuki Tsuruga
Western Economic Association International, 14th International Conference 2018.1
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Decomposing Local Fiscal Multipliers: Evidence from Japan International conference
Taisuke Kameda, Ryoichi Namba, Takayuki Tsuruga
Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society 2018.6.21
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Decomposing Local Fiscal Multipliers: Evidence from Japan Invited International conference
Takayuki Tsuruga
ESRI International Conference 2017.8.1
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Decomposing Local Fiscal Multiplier: Evidence from Japan
Takayuki Tsuruga
Nihon University Economics Seminar 2020.11.12
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Current Account Dynamics under Information Rigidity and Imperfect Capital Mobility
Akihisa Shibata, Mototsugu Shintani, Takayuki Tsuruga
Japan Society of Monetary Economics 2018.5
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Current Account Dynamics under Information Rigidity and Imperfect Capital Mobility
Takayuki Tsuruga
2017 Asian Meeting of Econometric Society 2017.6
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Current Account Dynamics under Information Rigidity and Imperfect Capital Mobility International conference
Akihisa Shibata, Mototsugu Shintani, Takayuki Tsuruga
Econometric Society Australasian Meeting (ESAM) 2018.7
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Bank Overleverage and Macroeconomic Fragility
Takayuki Tsuruga
Japanese Economic Association Meeting, 2012.10
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Bank Overleverage and Macroeconomic Fragility
Takayuki Tsuruga
Midwest Macro Meetings 2012 2012.11
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Bank Overleverage and Macroeconomic Fragility
Takayuki Tsuruga
Summer Workshop on Economic Theory 2011.8
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Bank Overleverage and Macroeconomic Fragility
Takayuki Tsuruga
Financial and Macroeconomic Stability: Challenges Ahead 2012.6
KAKENHI (Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research) 14
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無関心の行動マクロ経済学：マクロ経済政策へのインプリケーション
Grant number：25H00544 2025.4 - 2029.3
日本学術振興会 科学研究費助成事業 基盤研究(A)
敦賀 貴之
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Behavioral Macroeconomics under Imperfect Information
Grant number：21H04397 2021.4 - 2025.3
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
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反実仮想実験による炭素価格付加政策の排出削減効果と世界経済への影響の分析
Grant number：21H00700 2021.4 - 2024.3
日本学術振興会 科学研究費助成事業 基盤研究(B)
山形 孝志, 敦賀 貴之, 植松 良公, 生藤 昌子
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Risk Management of Comprehensive Monetary/Fiscal Policy: From Financial Crises to International Relations and Natural Disasters
Grant number：20H05633 2020.8 - 2025.3
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (S)
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Economic stagnation and widening wealth inequality: Crises of the world economy and a construction of a unified macroeconomic theory
Grant number：20H05631 2020.8 - 2025.3
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (S)
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Theoretical analyses of current account in a small open economy: the role of imperfect information
Grant number：18K01684 2018.4 - 2022.3
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
Tsuruga Takayuki
The current account dynamics are one of the most important issues for policymakers and macroeconomists. The data in most countries suggest that the current account is persistent and volatile, and thus the current account deficits and surpluses are difficult to be balanced. Many attempts to explain the current account dynamics have been made in the previous studies. However, these attempts are based on the rational expectations hypothesis. In this research project, I focus on the role of imperfect information held by economic agents in the current account dynamics. Using the sticky information model, I consider how the delay of expectation adjustment contributes to the current account persistence and volatility. I also study various imperfect information models to explore the importance of information in open economy models.
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Risk Management of Comprehensive Monetary/Fiscal Policy: Theory, Empirics, and Simulations
Grant number：15H05729 2015.5 - 2020.3
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (S)
KAMIHIGASHI Takashi
In this study, we conducted theoretical, empirical, and simulation analyses of the risk management of comprehensive monetary and fiscal policy. In our theoretical analysis, we found that the collapses of bubbles in different countries are closely related. Furthermore, in the empirical and simulation studies on monetary and fiscal policy, we showed how “risk” as a macroeconomic variable reacts to monetary policy, and evaluated the Bank of Japan’s policy responses after the collapse of the bubble economy in the early 1990s and the global financial crisis in 2008.
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包括的な金融・財政政策のリスクマネジメント：理論・実証・シミュレーション
Grant number：15H01948 2015.4 - 2016.3
日本学術振興会 科学研究費助成事業 基盤研究(A)
上東 貴志, 西村 和雄, 高橋 亘, 北野 重人, 敦賀 貴之, 堀井 亮, 小林 照義, 柴本 昌彦
日本の政府債務は膨張の一途をたどっているが、財政破綻の可能性は10年以上前から叫ばれており、近い将来に財政破綻が起こるか否かは意見の分かれるところである。その大きな一因は、財政破綻リスクは直接観測できないことであると考えられる。しかし、東日本大震災で経験したように、深刻なリスクは事後的に初めて認識されることが多い。
本研究の目的は、これまでの研究代表者の共同研究の成果に基づき、最新のスパコン・シミュレーション技術を駆使して、バブル崩壊・金融危機・財政破綻のリスクを事前に推定し、これらのリスクに適切に反応する包括的かつ最適な金融・財政政策を導出する手法を確立することである。
本研究の理論分析では、既存のモデルを拡張した一般均衡モデルに資産バブル・マネー・政府債務を明確に区別できる形で導入し、さらに、信用バブル・国債バブルを数学的に定義し、新たな変数とする。本研究では、資産・信用・国債の3種のバブルを、資産バブル崩壊・金融危機・財政破綻のそれぞれのリスク指標として用いる。実証モデルでは、これらのリスク指標をスパコンによるMCMCで推定し、推定されたリスク指標と主要マクロ変数との構造的関係を実証的に求める。この関係と、3種のリスクに反応する金融・財政政策を理論モデルにおいて仮定し、スパコンにより最適化問題を解くことで、包括的かつ最適な金融・財政政策を導出することが基本的な計画であった。
研究組織は、研究代表者、研究分担者7名、連携研究者2名、研究協力者4名の合計14名が、「理論」、「実証」、「シミュレーション」の3グループを編成し、平成27年度は、理論プロジェクト、実証プロジェクト、シミュレーションプロジェクトをそれぞれ開始し、数的には限られているが、一部の成果を論文として出版し、未出版の論文の報告も行った。 -
Theoretical and applied analyses on closed and open economy short-run macroeconometric model selection
Grant number：26285049 2014.4 - 2017.3
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
Shintani Mototsugu, YABU Tomoyoshi, TSURUGA Takayuki, INOUE Atsushi, CRUCINI Mario
Estimating an appropriate macroeconometric model using the data for the purpose of evaluating the policy effect is an important task. In this research project, we propose new econometric procedures that are useful in selecting superior macroeconometric models and develop and estimate various macroeconomic models usable for policy evaluation. In theoretical analysis, we propose new evaluation and estimation methods for dynamic factor models, dynamic panel data models and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. In empirical analysis, we conduct trend-cycle decomposition, estimation and selection of New Keynesian Phillips curves, development and estimation of new models such as a model of information frictions, an open-economy sticky wage model, and a two-sector labor search model.
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Deflation, Strong Yen, and Financial Crises
Grant number：24243044 2012.10 - 2015.3
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
KAMIHIGASHI Takashi, KITANO Shigeto, KOBAYASHI Teruyoshi, TSURUGA Takayuki, JINUSHI Toshiki, TAKAHASHI Wataru, TACHIBANA Minoru, SHIBAMOTO Masahiko
As empirical research, we considered various problems concerning the policies based on quantitative easing adopted in the face of the current worldwide deflationary trend, considered how the adoption of inflation targeting has affected the economic performance after the global financial crisis, and analyzed the mechanisms of real interest fluctuations. In addition, we considered the characteristics of business cycles in emerging economies in Asia, and analyzed the propagation mechanisms of exchange rate adjustments, expansionary monetary policy, and expansionary fiscal policy during the Korekiyo Takahashi period. As theoretical research, we obtained a condition for the nonexistence of bubbles, and modified a standard network model of contagion to analyze situations in which banks hold external risky assets.
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Mechanism behind Financial Crises and Economic Policy
Grant number：24730269 2012.4 - 2015.3
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
TSURUGA takayuki
The research project analyzed macroeconomic model to help better understanding the mechanism behind financial crises and policy interventions for crisis prevention. For this purpose, I relied on microeconomic theory on banking. In particular, I used the banking theory that explicitly models maturity mismatch and risks of financial crises that the banking sector is faced with. The analyses in this project provided the implications of macroeconomic environment and pecuniary externality in the banking sector for the frequency of financial crises. The analyses also discussed policy intervention to reduce the crisis probability.
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Research on real exchange rates and inflation : An approach from a good-specific price stickiness
Grant number：22730166 2010 - 2011
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
TSURUGA Takayuki
This research project employs the micro price data in the US and discusses good-level inflation and law-of-one-price deviations. More specifically, it attempts to uncover the interaction between the degrees of price stickiness and the price dynamics. The project consists of two papers. The first paper empirically investigates the dynamic responses of the good-level inflation to monetary policy shocks and technology shocks and attempts to provide theoretical explanations for the dynamic responses. The second paper focuses on the persistence of the law-of-one-price deviations across US cities. It is argued that the imperfect information may play an important role in accounting for the observed persistence of relative prices across US cities.
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Bubbles and Financial Crises in the Global Economy
Grant number：21243027 2009 - 2011
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
KAMIHIGASHI Takashi, JINUSHI Toshiki, MIYAO Ryuzo, TAKAHASHI Wataru, KITANO Shigeto, SHIBAMOTO Masahiko, TSURUGA Takayuki, KOBAYASHI Teruyoshi, TACHIBANA Minoru
We analyzed the births and burstings of asset bubbles in the global economy, financial crises caused by the bursts of bubbles, and the impact of a financial crisis occurring in one country on the global economy both theoretically and empirically, from micro, macro, and global points of view.
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Microfoundations for price stickiness and its implications for macroeconomics
Grant number：20830121 2008 - 2009
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (Start-up)
TSURUGA Takayuki, MARIO J. Crucini, SHINTANI Mototsugu
This research project supported by this research fund theoretically and empirically analyzed how variations in prices among the same goods or services (i.e., the law-of-one-price deviations) interact with the frequency of price adjustment. In particular, one of the papers in this project shows the possibility that imperfect information held by firms may explain inconsistency between the sticky price models and the reality regarding the law-of-one-price deviations observed in the U.S. and Canada. In another paper, my co-authors and I find how the law-of-one-price deviations observed in Japanese cities are related to the frequency of price adjustment.
Teaching Experience (Off-campus) 52
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Macroeconomics I
2026.4 - 2026.8 （Nagoya University）
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Introductory Seminar
2026.4 - 2026.8 （Nagoya University）
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The world of intellect and imagination
2024.4 - 2024.8 （Osaka University）
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Introductory Macroeconomics
2024.4 - 2024.8 （Osaka University）
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Macroeconomic analysis II
2023.10 - 2024.1 （Osaka University）
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Special Lectures in Economics(Introduction to compuational economics)
2022.10 - 2023.1 （Osaka University）
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Macroeconomic analysis II
2021.10 - 2022.1 （Osaka University）
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Special Lectures in Economics(Introduction to compuational economics)
2020.10 - 2021.1 （Osaka University）
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Special Lectures in Economics(Applied Macroeconomics II)
2020.4 - 2020.8 （Osaka University）
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Special Lectures in Economics(Applied Macroeconomics II)
2019.4 - 2019.8 （Osaka University）
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Introductory Macroeconomics
2019.4 - 2019.8 （Osaka University）
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Special Lectures in Economics(Applied Macroeconomics II)
2018.10 - 2019.1 （Osaka University）
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Introductory Macroeconomics
2018.4 - 2018.8 （Osaka University）
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Interpreting Economic Phenomena
2017.10 - 2018.1 （Osaka University）
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Special Lectures in Economics(Applied Macroeconomics II)
2017.10 - 2018.1 （Osaka University）
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Introductory Macroeconomics
2017.4 - 2017.8 （Kyoto University）
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Intermediate Macroeconomics
2017.4 - 2017.8 （Kyoto University）
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Monetary Economics
2015.10 - 2016.1 （Kyoto University）
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Introductory Macroeconomics
2015.10 - 2016.1 （Kyoto University）
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Pulic Policy
2015.4 - 2015.8 （Kyoto University）
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Macroeconomic Policy Analysis
2015.4 - 2015.8 （Kyoto University）
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Monetary Economics
2014.10 - 2015.1 （Kyoto University）
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Macroeconomics II
2014.10 - 2015.1 （Kyoto University）
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Introductory Macroeconomics
2014.10 - 2015.1 （Kyoto University）
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Macroeconomic Policy Analysis
2014.4 - 2014.8 （Kyoto University）
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Monetary Economics
2013.10 - 2014.1 （Kyoto University）
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Introductory Macroeconomics
2013.10 - 2014.1 （Kyoto University）
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Monetary Economics
2012.10 - 2013.1 （Kyoto University）
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Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis
2012.10 - 2013.1 （Kyoto University）
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Introductory Macroeconomics
2012.10 - 2013.1 （Kyoto University）
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Macroeconomic Policy Analysis
2012.4 - 2012.8 （Kyoto University）
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Monetary Economics
2011.10 - 2012.1 （Kyoto University）
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Introductory Macroeconomics
2011.10 - 2012.1 （Kyoto University）
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Pulic Policy
2011.4 - 2011.8 （Kyoto University）
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Macroeconomic Policy Analysis
2011.4 - 2011.8 （Kyoto University）
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Monetary Economics
2010.10 - 2011.1 （Kyoto University）
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Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis
2010.10 - 2011.1 （Kyoto University）
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Japanese Economy 2
2010.10 - 2011.1 （Kansai University）
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English for Economists A
2010.4 - 2010.8 （Kyoto University）
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Japanese Economy 1
2010.4 - 2010.8 （Kansai University）
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Macroeconomic Policy Analysis
2010.4 - 2010.8 （Kyoto University）
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Japanese Economy 2
2009.10 - 2010.1 （Kansai University）
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Elementary Seminar 2
2009.10 - 2010.1 （Kansai University）
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Advanced Macroeconomics 2
2009.10 - 2010.1 （Kansai University）
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Economics Workshop I
2009.4 - 2009.8 （Kansai University）
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Japanese Economy 1
2009.4 - 2009.8 （Kansai University）
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Advanced Macroeconomics1
2009.4 - 2009.8 （Kansai University）
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Introduction to Japanese Economy
2008.10 - 2009.1 （Kansai University）
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Introductory Seminar 2
2008.10 - 2009.1 （Kansai University）
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Interdisciplinary Seminar
2008.10 - 2009.1 （Kansai University）
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Advanced Macroeconomics
2008.10 - 2009.1 （Kansai University）
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Economics Workshop I
2008.4 - 2008.8 （Kansai University）
Social Contribution 2
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マイナス金利付き量的・質的金融緩和と日本経済
Role(s)：Lecturer
京都大学経済学部同窓会 東京支部 経済懇話会 2016.7
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金融危機と経済政策
Role(s)：Lecturer
ISFJ・日本政策学生会議（西日本部会） 2012.7
Media Coverage 12
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物価変動と経済変動（9） 「期待インフレ」を動かす難しさ Newspaper, magazine
日本経済新聞 やさしい経済学 2021.11
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物価変動と経済変動（8） 機動力が重要な財政政策 Newspaper, magazine
日本経済新聞 やさしい経済学 2021.11
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物価変動と経済変動（7） 将来に働きかける金融政策 Newspaper, magazine
日本経済新聞 やさしい経済学 2021.11
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物価変動と経済変動（6） 景気低迷と「流動性のわな」 Newspaper, magazine
日本経済新聞 やさしい経済学 2021.11
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物価変動と経済変動（5） 支出選択と実質利子率の役割 Newspaper, magazine
日本経済新聞 やさしい経済学 2021.11
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物価変動と経済変動（4） 経済活動に直結する利子率 Newspaper, magazine
日本経済新聞 やさしい経済学 2021.11
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物価変動と経済変動（3） さまざまな「インフレ」 Newspaper, magazine
日本経済新聞 やさしい経済学 2021.10
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物価変動と経済変動（2） 当てはまりにくい「貨幣数量説」 Newspaper, magazine
日本経済新聞 やさしい経済学 2021.10
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物価変動と経済変動（1） 「物価」は経済理解の重要指標 Newspaper, magazine
日本経済新聞 やさしい経済学 2021.10
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景気改善の薬になるか？ヘリコプターマネーの功罪 Newspaper, magazine
東洋経済新報社 週刊東洋経済 2019年8月10日－17日合併号、 pp. 140-141 2019.8
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アベノミクスで物価が上がらないのはなぜか、物価の「摩擦」に注目するマクロ経済学の新理論 Internet
国立大学附置研究所・センター会議 http://shochou-kaigi.org/interview/interview_62/ 2018.12
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商品価格とインフレーション Internet
内閣府経済社会総合研究所 ESRI通信 http://www.esri.go.jp/jp/tsushin/tsushin093.html 2016.5
Academic Activities 46
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The 190th Macroeconomic Workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
A. Shibata, T. Iwaisako, T. Tsuruga, T. Unayama, K. Hashimoto, D. Yasui 2026.5
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Advanced macroeconomic workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
Takayuki Tsuruga 2026.3
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The 20th Macroeconomic Conference for Young Economists
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
A. Shibata, T. Iwaisako, T. Tsuruga, K. Hashimoto, D. Yasui 2026.2
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Advanced macroeconomic workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
Takayuki Tsuruga 2026.1
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The 189th Macroeconomic Workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
A. Shibata, T. Iwaisako, T. Tsuruga, T. Unayama, K. Hashimoto, D. Yasui 2025.12
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The 27th Macro Conference
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
Kosuke Aoki, Iichiro Uesugi, Ippei Fujiwara, Takayuki Tsuruga, 2025.11
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The 188th Macroeconomic Workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
A. Shibata, T. Iwaisako, T. Tsuruga, T. Unayama, K. Hashimoto, D. Yasui 2025.10
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Advanced macroeconomic workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
Takayuki Tsuruga 2025.9
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The 187th Macroeconomic Workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
A. Shibata, T. Iwaisako, T. Tsuruga, T. Unayama, K. Hashimoto, D. Yasui 2025.7
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Advanced macroeconomic workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
Takayuki Tsuruga 2025.6
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The 186th Macroeconomic Workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
A. Shibata, T. Iwaisako, T. Tsuruga, T. Unayama, K. Hashimoto, D. Yasui 2025.5
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Advanced macroeconomic workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
Takayuki Tsuruga 2025.3
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The 19th Macroeconomic Conference for Young Economists
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
A. Shibata, T. Iwaisako, T. Tsuruga, K. Hashimoto, D. Yasui 2025.2
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Advanced macroeconomic workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
Takayuki Tsuruga 2025.1
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The 185th Macroeconomic Workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
A. Shibata, T. Iwaisako, T. Tsuruga, K. Hashimoto, D. Yasui 2024.12
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The 26th Macro Conference
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
Iichiro Uesugi, Takayuki Tsuruga, Ippei Fujiwara, Tsutomu Watanabe 2024.11
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The 184th Macroeconomic Workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
A. Shibata, T. Iwaisako, T. Tsuruga, K. Hashimoto, D. Yasui 2024.10
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Advanced macroeconomic workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
Takayuki Tsuruga 2024.9
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The 183th Macroeconomic Workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
A. Shibata, T. Iwaisako, T. Tsuruga, K. Hashimoto, D. Yasui 2024.7
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Advanced macroeconomic workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
Takayuki Tsuruga 2024.7
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The 182nd Macroeconomic Workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
A. Shibata, T. Iwaisako, T. Tsuruga, K. Hashimoto, D. Yasui 2024.5
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Advanced macro workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
Takayuki Tsuruga 2024.3
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The 18th Macroeconomic Conference for Young Economists
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
A. Shibata, T. Iwaisako, T. Tsuruga, K. Hashimoto, D. Yasui 2024.2
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The 181st Macroeconomic Workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
A. Shibata, T. Iwaisako, T. Tsuruga, K. Hashimoto, D. Yasui 2023.12
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The 25th Macro Conference
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc., Review, evaluation
Masaya Sakuragawa, Etsuro Shioji, Takayuki Tsuruga, Tsutomu Watanabe 2023.11
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The 180th Macroeconomic Workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
A. Shibata, T. Iwaisako, T. Tsuruga, K. Hashimoto, D. Yasui 2023.10
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The 179th Macroeconomic Workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
A. Shibata, T. Iwaisako, T. Tsuruga, K. Hashimoto, D. Yasui 2023.7
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The 178th Macroeconomic Workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
A. Shibata, T. Iwaisako, T. Tsuruga, K. Hashimoto, D. Yasui 2023.5
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The 17th Macroeconomic Conference for Young Economists
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
K. Futagami, A. Shibata, T. Iwaisako, T. Tsuruga, K. Hashimoto, D. Yasui 2023.2
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The 177th Macroeconomic Workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
K. Futagami, A. Shibata, T. Iwaisako, T. Tsuruga, K. Hashimoto, D. Yasui 2022.12
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The 24th Macro Conference
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc., Panel moderator, session chair, etc.
Masaya Sakuragawa, Etsuro Shioji, Takayuki Tsuruga, Tsutomu Watanabe 2022.11
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The 175 th Macroeconomic Workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
K. Futagami, A. Shibata, T. Iwaisako, T. Tsuruga, K. Hashimoto, D. Yasui 2022.9
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The 174th Macroeconomic Workshop
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
K. Futagami, A. Shibata, T. Iwaisako, T. Tsuruga, K. Hashimoto, D. Yasui 2022.6
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第173回マクロ経済学研究会
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
K. Futagami, A. Shibata, T. Iwaisako, T. Tsuruga, K. Hashimoto, D. Yasui 2022.4
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第16回若手経済学者のためのマクロ経済学コンファレンス
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
二神孝一、柴田章久、祝迫達郎、敦賀貴之、橋本賢一、安井大真 （ キャンパスプラザ京都 ） 2022.2
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The 23rd Macro conference
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc., Panel moderator, session chair, etc.
Masaya Sakuragawa, Etsuro Shioji, Takayuki Tsuruga, Tsutomu Watanabe 2021.12
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第173回 マクロ経済学研究会
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
二神孝一、柴田章久、祝迫達郎、敦賀貴之、橋本賢一、安井大真 2021.12
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第172回 マクロ経済学研究会
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
二神孝一、柴田章久、祝迫達郎、敦賀貴之、橋本賢一、安井大真 2021.11
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第171回 マクロ経済学研究会～25周年記念研究会
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
二神孝一、柴田章久、祝迫達郎、敦賀貴之、橋本賢一、安井大真 2021.9
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第170回 マクロ経済学研究会
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc.
二神孝一、柴田章久、祝迫達郎、敦賀貴之、橋本賢一、安井大真 2021.5
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第15回若手経済学者のためのマクロ経済学コンファレンス
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc., Panel moderator, session chair, etc.
二神孝一、柴田章久、祝迫達郎、敦賀貴之、橋本賢一、安井大真 2021.2
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The 22rd Macro conference
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc., Panel moderator, session chair, etc.
Masaya Sakuragawa, Etsuro Shioji, Takayuki Tsuruga, Tsutomu Watanabe 2020.12
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第14回若手経済学者のためのマクロ経済学コンファレンス
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc., Panel moderator, session chair, etc.
二神孝一、柴田章久、祝迫達郎、敦賀貴之、橋本賢一、安井大真 2020.2
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The 21st Macro Conference
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc., Panel moderator, session chair, etc.
Masaya Sakuragawa, Etsuro Shioji, Takayuki Tsuruga, Tsutomu Watanabe 2019.11
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第13回若手経済学者のためのマクロ経済学コンフェレンス
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc., Panel moderator, session chair, etc.
二神孝一、柴田章久、祝迫達郎、敦賀貴之、橋本賢一、安井大真 2019.2
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The 20th Macro conference
Role(s)：Planning, management, etc., Panel moderator, session chair, etc.
Masaya Sakuragawa, Etsuro Shioji, Takayuki Tsuruga, Tsutomu Watanabe 2018.11